Today’s split doubleheader between the Minnesota Twins and the Tampa Bay Rays features two 2010 postseason teams heading in opposite directions. The Twins, generally considered at least co-favorites to win another division title this season, have been torched by injuries and are sitting in fourth place. The Rays, generally considered a great bet for third place, got off to a horrible start but have fought their way back to second place.
Tampa Bay’s Jeff Niemann Going For Win No. 1 Tonight
Both teams have about as much at stake today as two teams can have in late April.
The first game pits rookie Jeremy Hellickson, still looking for his 2010 form, against veteran Nick Blackburn.
I’m more intrigued by the evening game, featuring a pitcher (Jeff Niemann) with a 7.08 ERA against a pitcher (Anthony Swarzak) with no ERA at all.
Over the last two seasons, Niemann won 25 games and lost only 14.
Nah, he wasn’t really that good. Niemann’s ERA+ over those two seasons was 100: dead American League average.
Not that there’s anything wrong with that. To win 90 games, you need a starting pitcher or two with 180-200 average innings. Because there aren’t actually a lot of those guys freely available, they’re worth more than average. If you know what I mean.
This season, Niemann’s 0-3 with a 7.08 ERA.
Here’s the thing, though ... He’s still the same pitcher he’s always been. He’s striking out and walking the same numbers of hitters, and he’s giving up roughly the same number of home runs. What’s different is that Niemann’s given up a .348 batting average on balls in play. That’s not a ridiculously high BABiP -- it’s not -- but you start with a .348 BABiP and throw in (for example) some bunched hits and some shaky relief work, and it’s not all that hard to wind up with a 7.08 ERA in just four starts.
Francisco Liriano, now there’s a pitcher worth worrying about. Jeff Niemann, though? He should just keep plugging away, throwing his six innings per start and being perfectly average. Which is all the Rays need.
For much more about the Tampa Bay Rays, please visit DRaysBay.
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