The First To Three Wins In The National League

There’s a fair chance that the Pittsburgh Pirates won’t win 100 games this year. There’s always the possibility that Starlin Castro won’t hit .500 this season. It’s tempting to make grand proclamations after four games -- heck, it’s four more games of data than we had a week ago -- but it’s possible that we don’t have enough of a sample with which to work. Maybe, just maybe, it’s too early to predict the division winners based on the results of the season thus far.

Philadelphia Phillies

The (rotation) Phillies have (rotation) been hyped up (rotation) as one of the best teams (rotation) in the National League (rotation). Though some folks are focused on players like Ben Francisco and Ross Gload, I’ll take the contrarian position and suggest that the real strength of the Phillies is their rotation. The Roy Halladay/Cliff Lee/Roy Oswalt/Cole Hamels quartet is more than a little ridiculous, and the early returns are fantastic. Halladay, Lee, and Oswalt combined for 23 strikeouts and one walk in their first 19 innings, leading Philadelphia to a sweep of the Astros.

The Golden State Warriors could sweep the Astros. With a May schedule filled with the Mets, Nationals, and Diamondbacks, the Phillies could get out to a pretty fast start, and they should be a very, very good team, but beating the Astros isn’t exactly proof.

Atlanta Braves

The Braves were possibly the most underrated team in the majors before the injury to Chase Utley made them a trendy dark-horse pick in the NL East. The strengths of the Braves are a ridiculously deep staff, from the Opening Day starter to the mop-up man, and a well-balanced lineup, with the pitching living up to expectations in the first week. Other than a poor start from Tommy Hanson, the Braves’ rotation pitched extremely well. Brandon Beachy shut down a powerful Brewers lineup yesterday, and he might be the most interesting fifth starter in either league.

Like the Phillies, the Braves picked up wins against a poor team, the Nationals. If a team can’t take a series against a team that features Livan Hernandez as its Opening Day starter, forget the sample-size prudence -- it’s panic time. And while it's customary now to expect an injury to Jair Jurrjens, it certainly diminishes the depth mentioned above.

Cincinnati Reds

The Reds are the de facto pick in the NL Central, partly because they’re the defending champs, and partly because the Cardinals forgot to pay their organ-and-ligament bill before the season started. Cincinnati punished the Brewers in the opening series of the year, scoring 23 runs in a three-game set. Other than light-hitting Paul Janish, the Reds don’t have a gaping hole in their lineup.

If Edinson Volquez is as hittable as he was in his first start, the rotation is a big question mark. Travis Wood, Mike Leake, and Sam LeCure all have different measures of promise, but it’s expecting a lot to pin contending hopes on three unknowns in the rotation. And when Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto return, it isn’t as if they bring a ton of reliability with them, either.

This is the first completely unexpected team on the list, so it’s worth exploring what the Pirates’ definition of "promising" would be. They aren’t going to win the NL Central, but if they push .500, it would be parade-worthy. The team was astoundingly bad last year -- winning the team triple crown of allowing the most runs in the National League, scoring the fewest, and committing the most errors -- but if you squinted, you could see the talent poking through. Neil Walker was a nice story, as was the rise of Pedro Alvarez, and Andrew McCutchen is one of the best center fielders in either league. There’s a foundation in place, and if the fast start hints at anything, it’s that this could be the year the Pirates rise out of the cellar.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Like the Braves, the Dodgers’ pitching strength is easy to overlook because depth isn’t always the flashiest thing. But Clayton Kershaw looked like a magician in his first start, putting the Dodgers and the Rays in select company as the only teams in the first third of the 2006 draft who aren’t kicking themselves for overlooking Tim Lincecum.

The lineup is weaker than ever, especially with Casey Blake on the DL. Matt Kemp looks rejuvenated, but on Saturday, Don Mattingly put out a lineup that included Aaron Miles, Ivan DeJesus, Hector Gimenez, and Jamey Carroll. Somehow, this lineup was unable to score a run. And while the Dodgers did jump all over the Giants in their first four games, they benefited a lot from the Giants' miserable fielding. They can't expect every team to be so generous.