Hey, have you heard? The Boston Red Sox, unanimously hailed as the best team in the American League just one week ago, have opened the season with four straight losses and currently sit in last place, four games behind the undefeated Baltimore Orioles.
As Long As Red Sox Don’t Lose Five Straight ...
Inevitably, people are looking for some meaning in these strange numbers. As monkeys who are really good at using tools and keyboards, we really can’t help ourselves. Just one notable example, from Rob Bradford (via WEEI.com):
But, as they say, the first sign of addiction is denial, and at least this group admitted it was coming out of its identity.
"The guys that were here before, they've won," Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia said. "The guys that we got have won. We all know how to win. you can't keep a good man down for long, that's about it."
Pedroia's right. But, through an angst-filled four games, something is keeping them down. It could be a major league-worst 8.16 team ERA. That aforementioned horrific team offensive production. Or perhaps the lack bravado, which has been siphoned somewhat by a litany of hard-to-digest numbers, most notably the four losses in as many games.
Look, great teams rarely begin their seasons with four straight losses ... but that’s largely because great teams rarely suffer four-game losing streaks at all.
Last year, the Rays finished with the best record in the American League and suffered exactly two four-game losing streaks. Or one, depending on how you count streaks; their two four-game streaks were contained within a five-game losing streak.
The Rays were exceptional in that regard, though. The Phillies finished with the best record in the National League and suffered five four-game losing streaks, two of which were contained within a five-game streak.
Of course, the underlying presumption here is that the Red Sox are still an excellent team, and we’ve got recent evidence that they are not actually excellent. But think about all the not-so-recent evidence we’ve got, arguing that the Red Sox are very good and perhaps great.
Wherever we looked this spring, we saw projections showing the Red Sox winning the American League East with approximately 95 wins. What these four opening losses have done is knock their projection back to 92 or 93 wins. Which might still be good enough for first place (pending the vagaries of luck, not to mention all the moves the Red Sox and Yankees make in the next four or five months).
Granted, all the projections go to hell if John Lackey and Jon Lester keep getting hammered. But the same might be said of almost any team after four games and a losing record.
To close, a few questions ...
Would anyone be panicking if the Red Sox were 1-3 rather than 0-4?
Will anyone still be panicking if the Red Sox win two of their next three games?
Does anyone think the Orioles are really going to win the division title?
Does anyone think the Red Sox can’t, over the next (nearly) six months, make up the 2-1/2 games that currently separate them from the Yankees?
Speaking of whom, has everyone forgotten that in 1998, everyone panicked when the Yankees opened the season 1-4 ... on their way to 114 wins?
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