Occasionally I’m asked, “What are you doing in my house?”
Roy Halladay, King Of The Pitchers
Less occasionally I’m asked, “Right now, who’s the best pitcher in the major leagues?”
There’s no satisfactory answer to that first question. There’s no widely popular answer to the second.
Not so long ago, I would confidently have answered (to the second question), "Johan Santana."
That one doesn’t work any more. Santana’s still a fine pitcher when he pitches, but he doesn’t pitch often enough to be a part of this discussion: 54 starts in 2009 and ‘10, plus zero so far in 2011.
With Santana out of the running, who does that leave?
A year ago, there were people who thought Ubaldo Jimenez was the best pitcher. Today, there are people who think Jered Weaver is the best pitcher. Last fall, it seemed like Felix Hernandez might be the best pitcher. The fall before that, it seemed like Zack Greinke might be the best pitcher. Josh Johnson's had his supporters, as has Jon Lester. And of course the Yankees are paying CC Sabathia as if he's the best. Tim Lincecum and Justin Verlander have all those strikeouts, & c.
All of these pitchers have their merits. But when asked to name the best pitcher in the majors, my response is essentially this ...
I don't know who the best pitcher is, but if I could choose any pitcher for just one game, I would choose Roy Halladay, for the simple reason that he's not only one of the most talented pitchers, but he's also the most likely to pitch nine innings. If I have a great bullpen, maybe I don't care. But give me just an average bullpen and a big game, and I want the pitcher who might not need any relief help at all.
And when it comes to complete games, nobody is close to Halladay. Over the last three seasons (including this one), Halladay has pitched 20 complete games. Cliff Lee has 14 complete games over that span. Nobody else has more than nine.
Of course, there’s another argument for Halladay. Let’s say you need a pitcher for a whole season rather than just one game. Halladay’s your man there, too. From 2006 through 2010, he averaged 32 starts per season, which elevates him above at least half of your other candidates.
And of course there’s one more reason. Now that I’ve checked, I find that Halladay is not only the best pitcher, quantitatively, but also qualitatively. According to FanGraphs’ Wins Above Replacement, Halladay tops the list from 2009 through ‘11. And from 2008 through ‘11. And 2007 through ‘11. And 2006 through ‘11.
Halladay turns 34 in two weeks, and maybe he’s not the pitcher you would choose for the next five seasons. Or even the next three. For a game next week, though? Or the rest of this season? There is just one choice.
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