Last Thursday night, well into a monotonous blowout, Cubs broadcaster Len Kasper -- one of the best in the business, by the way -- said a couple of things that got my various juices flowing more quickly than usual.
Is Jose Bautista Currently Baseball’s Best Earthly Hitter?
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First, he gave a pretty amazing shout-out to this Hot Corner item.
Second -- and I'm definitely paraphrasing here -- he said something like this: "You know, right now you can make a pretty good case that Jose Bautista is the best hitter in the major leagues."
Jose Bautista? Who is 30 years old, and has exactly one great (or even good) season in his career ledger?
On the face of it, the notion seems preposterous (or might have, a month ago). Historically, great hitters have almost always been easily identifiable by their middle 20s, if not earlier. The only recent counter-example is probably Luis Gonzalez, whose first big season came at 31.
But Gonzalez and Bautista are hardly comparable. Before that first big season, Gonzalez had a career 108 OPS+; he was an above-average hitter throughout his 20s. Before Bautista’s first big season, he had a career 91 OPS+; he was a below-average hitter. In the major leagues, anyway.
Was Bautista’s big 2010 a fluke, though? Late in the 2009 season, Bautista changed his swing ... and had a big September. He’s having a HUGE 2011. We’ve got eight months of data, spread over three seasons, that tells us Bautista is simply not the same hitter he used to be.
The best in the majors, though?
First, let’s identify the candidates...
There aren't many. Albert Pujols, obviously. And looking at 2009, 2010 and 2011, I've come up with only two others: Miguel Cabrera and Joey Votto.
All four of these players rank atop any leader boards you care to make, when considered purely hitting performance from September 2009 through yesterday. Granted, that does seem to skew the results in favor of Bautista, since of course that’s when he began to hit like a Hall of Famer. But again, that’s also when the adjustments he made seem to have begun paying off. And in those selected eight months, it’s been these four who have done the most damage.
Because I’m looking at months, I’m not able to look at park-adjusted numbers. So we’ll start by looking at the big two, on-base percentage and slugging average, for each of the four over these last eight baseball months ...
Bautista: .392/.631
Cabrera: .420/.600
Pujols: .406/.578
Votto: .443/.613
Those are crude tools, of course. So is OPS, which is why I didn’t bother to list those. One thing we know is that on-base percentage is more important than slugging percentage; the degree depends on the environment. But if you’re going to combine OBP and Slugging, you get closer to the truth if you weight OBP more heavily, and in today’s context, multiplying OBP by 1.8 isn’t far off. Here are the “adjusted” OPS’s for the quartet ...
Bautista: 1336
Cabrera:1355
Pujols: 1309
Votto: 1411
What about the ballparks? Busch Stadium is a tough place for hitters, and especially for right-handed power hitters (like Pujols). The Rogers Center is a good place for right-handed power hitters (like Bautista). Detroit’s Comerica Park, though it has the reputation of a pitcher’s park, has actually played as a hitter’s park these last few seasons. And Cincinnati’s Great American Ballpark is a good place for power hitters (like Votto).
So Pujols is the only one of these guys who’s probably hurt by his home ballpark. He’s also hurt, in this space, by his subpar April performance, especially with Bautista, Cabrera and Votto all off to brilliant starts to the season.
The relevant factors that I haven’t considered yet? There are dozens, with quality of competition and luck ranking near the top. If you make me choose one of these hitters for one game, I’m probably choosing Miguel Cabrera.
But is Bautista a legitimate part of this conversation? I believe that he is.
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