The AL West is kind of an odd little division. There are only four teams in the whole thing. How adorable! Fans of teams in the NL Central haven’t noticed yet because mixed in among their six teams are the Pirates and Astros, but there will come a time when all six teams in the NL Central will be decent or better. Like, oh, 2051. But when it happens, they’d be right to look at a small division like the AL West and be a little jealous.
The AL West: Handicapping Baseball’s Closest Race
What the small division really does, though, is set up the chance for a neat four-team race, which is what’s going on right now:
Three teams, with only three games between them. Sounds good, but it can’t last, can it? Probably not, but in a world where Sean Burroughs is raking in Triple-A, anything can happen. Here’s are arguments for why each team can stay in the hunt for the entire season:
Start with the easy one. They can stay in the hunt because they’re a good team (and you didn’t even have to pay for this analysis!). Even though they’ve been hurt by injuries to Josh Hamilton and Neftali Feliz, the offense and bullpen have been fantastic so far. They didn’t win the AL pennant last fall because Cliff Lee cliffly did Cliff Lee things in every single game; this is a complete team, and they’ll get reinforcements off the DL soon enough.
It was supposed to be a little bit of a down year for the Angels, whose offseason cavalry was basically Vernon Wells wearing a nice suit, blowing a bugle, and riding a limping burro. But the 1-2 combo of Jered Weaver and Dan Haren has been otherworldly, and there are some encouraging signs with the offense, too. Howie Kendrick is looking like the offensive force he was once projected to be, and offensive event horizon Jeff Mathis has been losing at-bats to Hank Conger.
Oh, that starting pitching. Brandon McCarthy has been a fantastic story, coming off the scrap heap to post an ERA+ of 131 through six starts, but his is the worst ERA+ in Oakland’s rotation. Dallas Braden is on the DL, so not everything is going swimmingly for the A’s, but the staff is as good as anyone’s in the American League.
The offense, though, looks like they’re hitting in some shadow world against mirror images of their own pitchers. Other than maybe Kevin Kouzmanoff, though, just about everyone in that A’s lineup shouldn’t be quite as bad as they’ve been. Billy Beane did a pretty good job of getting a smattering of decent hitters this offseason -- now they just need to hit.
This is probably the easy pick for a team ripe for a drop-off, but never bet against a team with a two-headed pitching monster like Felix Hernandez and Michael Pineda. Well, you could probably put down $20 or so against the Mariners if someone really wants to offer you even odds, but the pitching, while a little top-heavy, is solid. The problem, of course, is the offense, with Jack Wilson, Brendan Ryan, and Chone Figgins combining for a total of 14,390 outs in April.
Wait, sorry, that figure was for the first week of April. If the Mariners can hover around .500, there’s a chance they can fill their lineup voids with internal help (if Dustin Ackley ever gets going) or external help (trying to find better hitters for their middle infield, possibly by opening up a phone book). They might be the least likely team to stick around, but they’ve got a good start to a contending foundation with Hernandez and Pineda.
The Rangers are probably the most complete team of the lot, and Baseball Prospectus still has them as substantial favorites in the AL West race. But with everyone currently hovering around .500, it should be a race to watch. Just wait for that 2051 NL Central race, though! Should be a doozy.
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