2011 Copa Libertadores Semifinals, Second Leg: Santos FC In Control, Velez Sarsfield Need Bounce Back Performance

We’re just two games and 180 (or more?) minutes away from determining the participants in the 2011 Copa Libertadores final. Four teams from four different countries remain, and based on their performances thus far, it would be tough to say that any of them are not worthy participants.

Though Cerro Porteño don’t play the most aesthetically pleasing style of football, their defensive record is impressive. Peñarol are a great counter-attacking side, and it’s great to see a resurgence from such a historically great club. Santos FC are what one would think they are, a side full of young Brazilian stars and attacking flair. Velez Sarsfield, before their last two matches in Copa and domestic football, were the most in-form team on the continent. They’re four teams from four different countries with four very different styles, and that’s what makes Copa Libertadores such an entertaining competition.

The television networks and lovers of attacking football probably want to see the glamorous Santos-Velez final take place, but that’s looking a little more unlikely today than it was the day before the first legs of the semifinals started. Velez have more of a large hill to climb than a mountain after an understandable, but still tough 1-0 loss away to Peñarol, but it will still be a very difficult result to overturn.

In the other tie, Santos FC are in control, but hardly secure after a 1-0 win at home. It’s tough to see Cerro scoring two more goals than Santos, but their crowd will be absolutely raucous in Asunción, trying to push their team to victory. Win or lose, Cerro’s crowd will be large and loud, both in support of them and in opposition to Santos. Expect projectiles to be thrown.

Cerro Porteño Vs. Santos FC

Wednesday, 8:50 pm ET

Even though they need a 1-0 win or a win by two goals to have a chance to advance, don’t expect Cerro Porteño to return to the more attacking style of football that they played in the group stages. Manager Leonardo Astrada will probably feel like taking his chances on nicking a goal through Roberto Nanni’s magic or a set piece, rather than actually playing an ambitious style. And really, who can blame him? You might think it’s negative or not proper football, but it’s certainly not unintelligent. Without an away goal, an attacking slugfest against Santos is suicide.

Do I have to tell you about Santos at this stage of the competition? There’s Neymar, who is probably a future Chelsea player. Ze Roberto, who has already signed for Genoa. Elano, who has played for Manchester City, Galatasaray, and Shakhtar Donetsk. Paulo Henrique Ganso is injured, but he will likely wear a Milan shirt one day. Edu Dracena, their captain, had a long career in Greece. Holding midfielder Arouca and Ganso’s replacement, Alan Patrick, have European futures ahead of them. This is the most talented team in South America, bar none. Will they turn that into goals in Asunción? If they score just once, this tie is likely over.

I like Santos to get that goal early, then concentrate more on their defense than they usually do. Cerro will nick one on the counter or a set piece, but it won’t be enough. I like a 1-1 draw, with Santos going through to the final.

Velez Sarsfield Vs. Peñarol

Thursday, 8:50 pm ET

What’s this, are cracks starting to appear in Velez? The team that looked unstoppable in both Argentina and Copa Libertadores for months has now lost two straight games - one in Copa and one in Argentina - and both their Clausura title and their spot in the Copa Libertadores final are very much in jeopardy. After a 1-0 loss in Montevideo to Peñarol, Velez needs the same thing that Cerro needs: A 1-0 win or a win by two goals. This seems manageable for a team who absolutely destroyed LDU Quito and Libertad, but Peñarol are stronger defensively than both of those teams.

However, Velez did not play Maxi Moralez in the first leg against Peñarol or their loss to Tigre, as he was recovering from an injury. He’s back and will start on Thursday, and that’s absolutely massive news for Velez. Also sitting out of that loss to Tigre was Santiago Silva, who will return to the starting lineup, replacing the ineffective Guillermo Franco, who has also returned from injury in recent weeks. The presence of Moralez in the starting lineup and Franco on the bench should, in theory, give Velez the firepower to put a couple of goals past Peñarol.

They will have to be careful, though, as Peñarol are a team who are deadly at counter-attacking down the wings. This has been a feature of many of the teams who have pulled massive upsets in Copa in recent years, such as Defensor Sporting in 2009 and Universidad de Chile in 2010, and Peñarol is continuing that tradition. Up top, Juan Manuel Olivera has finished off most of those chances, and he’s also deadly on set pieces. They might find it tough to get the ball against a Velez team starting Moralez at home, but when they do, they have the ability to counter quickly and find Olivera in the box.

If Peñarol can find an away goal before Velez get two, it’s probably lights out for the favorites. However, I think Velez are going to score more than twice on Thursday night. Peñarol will make it interesting with an away goal, but ultimately, Velez advance with a 3-1 victory.