Hey, Rays fan, I can hear you giggling. You’re looking at the bounty of picks the Tampa Bay Rays have in next week's amateur draft, and you’re giddy. I’ll play along. Here are the overall picks the Rays have this year in the first round and supplemental first round:
The Tampa Bay Rays And The Bounty Of Draft Picks
#24
#31
#32
#38
#41
#42
#52
#56
#59
#60I think the Chiefs gave them a bunch of picks to move up. You’re giggling again. And now you’re rolling around in draft picks like Scrooge McDuck. That’s so garish.
You have a right to be excited. Prospects are fun to follow, and the Rays have done a mighty fine job escorting a lot of their talent through the minors. And it’s not like all of the extra picks come with painful memories of players they couldn’t afford -- while the Rays have their choice of the best amateur players in the nation, the Yankees will enjoy a broken Rafael Soriano, and the Padres get to watch Brad Hawpe make everyone forget about Adrian Gonzalez.
But the draft is a crap shoot. Of course you know this, but sometimes it’s worth pointing out. Obviously and painfully:
| Year | Rnd | OvPck | Tm | Pos | WAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | 1 | 19 | Giants via Astros | *Tony Torcato (minors) | 3B | -0.2 |
| 1998 | 1 | 25 | Giants | Nate Bump (minors) | RHP | -0.7 |
| 1998 | 1 | 29 | Giants via Devil Rays | *Arturo McDowell (minors) | OF | |
| 1998 | 1s | 38 | Giants | *Chris Jones (minors) | LHP | |
| 1998 | 1s | 41 | Giants | *Jeff Urban (minors) | LHP | |
| 1998 | 2 | 68 | Giants | Sammy Serrano (minors) | C | |
| 1998 | 2 | 72 | Giants via Devil Rays | *Chris Magruder (minors) | OF | -0.6 |
The Giants had seven of the first 72 picks in the 1998 draft. Four of the chosen players didn’t reach the majors, and the other three were worse than replacement level. The draft is a harsh mistress. The only saving grace for the Giants was that they used a fifth-round pick on their current ace. You know, Ryan Vogelsong.
That wasn’t the only draft like that in history; it’s more of the rule than the exception. Another example, from the 1991 Houston Astros:
| Year | Rnd | OvPck | Tm | Pos | WAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1991 | 1 | 6 | Astros | John Burke (minors) | RHP | -0.3 |
| 1991 | 1s | 29 | Astros | *Shawn Livesey (minors) | SS | |
| 1991 | 1s | 40 | Astros | *Jimmy Gonzalez (minors) | C | |
| 1991 | 1s | 44 | Astros | *Mike Groppuso (minors) | 3B | |
| 1991 | 2 | 48 | Astros via Cardinals | *Buck McNabb (minors) | OF | |
| 1991 | 2 | 49 | Astros via Brewers | *James Lewis (minors) | RHP | |
| 1991 | 2 | 50 | Astros | Eduardo Ramos (minors) | 3B | |
| 1991 | 3 | 79 | Astros | Chris Durkin (minors) | OF |
So a bounty of picks isn’t an automatic boon. Sometimes it’s an absolute boondoggle, with tens of millions of dollars thrown down a one-tool hole. But you aren’t wrong to dream big. Here are the top players by career WAR who were taken at the same spot of the Rays’ first-round picks:
#24 - Alex Fernandez, 27.3 (six players over 1.0 WAR out of 46)
#31 - Greg Maddux, 96.9 (three players over 1.0)
#32 - Dave Magadan, 22.2 (11 players over 1.0)
#38 - David Wright, 31.8 and counting (10 players over 1.0)
#41 - Fred Lynn, 47.3 (seven players over 1.0)
#42 - Dennis Leonard, 24.0 (five players over 1.0)
#52 - Carl Crawford, 26.4 and counting (backwards this year, but still counting) (six players over 1.0)
#56 - Jimmy Key, 45.6 (eight players over 1.0)
#59 - Roger McDowell, 10.5 (five players over 1.0)
#60 - Steve Garvey, 35.9 (seven players over 1.0)
That’s a Hall of Famer, several Hall of Really Really Gooders, and a couple of valuable role players. Those are the best-case scenarios, and they’re exciting. But to get any value at all -- players who accumulated enough WAR to squeak into the success ledger include Matt Murton, Jeremy Reed, and Marlon Anderson -- is hard. The odds are against the Rays, just as they would be against any team. The good news is that the Rays have proven to have a solid, if not spectacular, player-development program.
But hey, keep dreaming big. You’re not wrong to do so. Heck, I wrote this column partly out of jealousy, and partly out of an Arturo McDowell fascination that lingers to this day. The draft is fun. And if it’s a raffle, it’s sure better to have a bunch of raffle tickets.
Please stop giggling, though. It’s rude and creepy.
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