The Seattle Mariners lost 101 games last season.
Do The Mariners Have A New Ace?
This season, the Mariners were expected to lose something like 90 games.
They’re not going to lose 90 games. Entering their Thursday-afternoon game against the Nationals, the Mariners were sitting on a .500 record, only two games out of first place in the American League West.
What’s the reason for their turnaround?
Why, it’s that killer lineup, of course!
Not really. The Mariners’ offense has been better this season than last -- when they set all sorts of team, league, and planetary records for futility -- but they’re still last in the American League in scoring.
No, the biggest difference is that last year the Mariners didn't have Michael Pineda starting every fifth game, and this season they do. Even after picking up a no-decision against the Washington Nationals Thursday -- despite tossing seven shutout innings -- he's take over the team lead in wins, and his ERA is the best in a rotation full of starters with good ERAs.
Given a little health and a little luck, Pineda seems like a lock for American League Rookie of the Year honors.
Here's a question, though ... Is Pineda the Mariners' best pitcher? Better even than Felix Hernandez, the American League's reigning Cy Young Award winner?
Considering the statistics through Thursday ...
Pineda’s ERA is significantly lower: 2.45 to 3.34.
Pineda’s strikeout-to-walk ratio is higher: 3.48 to 2.92.
Both Pineda and Hernandez had allowed seven home runs (though Pineda has pitched 18 fewer innings).
In the absence of any other information, you would guess that Pineda is the superior pitcher.
But of course we have other information.
We have, for example, Felix Hernandez’s career numbers ... But those don’t change anything at all, because his numbers this season mirror his career numbers almost perfectly. Essentially, this King Felix is the King Felix: good (but not great) control, plenty of strikeouts, and a fair number of ground balls.
And that last is the most obvious difference, statistically speaking, between Hernandez and Pineda. Hernandez is a ground-ball pitcher, and Pineda is a fly-ball pitcher. Ultimately, this might well mean that Pineda’s going to give up some home runs, or at least more than he’s been giving up.
Another obvious difference: Hernandez has been doing this for a long time.
Since arriving in the majors not long after his 19th birthday, he’s just pitched and pitched and pitched, averaging 32 starts in his five full seasons. If you needed to choose between Felix Hernandez and Michael Pineda for one game tomorrow, against a team that didn’t feature a bunch of real power threats in the lineup, you might, might prefer Pineda because he throws real hard and generally puts the ball where he wants.
For a month, though? Or a season? Erik Bedard has a lower ERA and a higher strikeout-to-walk ratio than Hernandez, too. Are you taking Bedard over King Felix?
Probably not. At this point, you still probably go with the guy who’s proved he can give you six or seven solid innings, month in and month out for seasons on end.
For much more about the Mariners, please visit Lookout Landing.
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