I don't know how much CC Sabathia is worth.
How Much Is CC Sabathia Worth?
There. I’m glad that’s out of the way.
There are number of things I do know.
I know that Sabathia, upon signing with the Yankees for seven seasons and $161 million, would become the game's highest-paid pitcher in 2010; he remains so in 2011 (what happens beyond 2011 is ... complicated).
I know that Sabathia has not been the game’s best pitcher since signing with the Yankees; really, he hasn’t been close. For this reason, you might argue that the Yankees have not gotten what they thought they were getting.
In the first season of Sabathia’s deal, he earned only $14 million; last year and this year, though, Sabathia’s drawing a $23 million salary. Given that we’re almost halfway through this season, Sabathia has been paid roughly $48 million by the Yankees. Have they gotten their money’s worth?
More on that in a moment. For now, let’s focus on what Sabathia has not done.
In the three seasons before joining the Yankees, Sabathia posted a 3.03 ERA, roughly 46 percent better than league averages (with ballpark adjustments), and struck out 4.5 times more batters than he walked.
In his two-plus seasons since -- but not including Saturday afternoon's outing against the Rockies -- Sabathia has posted a 3.30 ERA, roughly 32 percent better than average, and struck out 2.8 times more batters than he's walked.
There are some caveats, of course. But it's hard to escape the conclusion that Sabathia simply isn't the pitcher with the Yankees that he was with the Indians and (for three months in 2008) the Brewers. Among pitchers who threw at least 500 innings from 2006 through 2008, Sabathia ranked third in adjusted ERA; among pitchers with at least 400 innings from 2009 through Friday night's contests, Sabathia's adjusted ERA ranks just ninth.
Sabathia has certainly been an outstanding pitcher since joining the Yankees. He certainly has not been the best pitcher in the majors, or even particularly close to the best.
So did the Yankees overpay for Sabathia?
Hardly. For one thing, at $14 million in the first season of the deal, he was a huge bargain. For another, while on paper he probably wasn’t worth quite $23 million last season -- FanGraphs has him valued at $20.4 million -- he’s currently on pace for a valuation of something close to $30 million.
Of course, it’s still true that the Yankees are paying more for their ace than anyone else is paying for theirs, but not getting the best ace in return.
To which the Yankees might respond, pshaww.
The Yankees don’t need the best pitcher; they merely need a great pitcher who’s also durable, and that’s CC Sabathia. In 2009, Sabathia co-led the American League with 19 wins. In 2010, Sabathia led the American League with 21 wins. And after beating the Rockies on Saturday, Sabathia leads this year’s American League with 10 wins. In 2009, he ranked fourth in the league in innings. In 2010, he ranked second in innings. At this moment in 2011, ranks second innings.
So the Yankees, while perhaps getting slightly less than expected for their money, have gotten exactly what they needed. And don’t think Sabathia and his agent don’t know it. Sabathia’s owed $23 million more in each season, 2012 through ‘15 ... except he may opt out of his contract after this season. While it’s probably true that Sabathia has been underpaid -- relative to his value to the Yankees -- to this point, it’s also probably true that his performance will decline in the coming seasons. It’s also probably true that while he’s worth at least $23 million, there aren’t many teams that would consider paying him that much, let alone more.
My Idle Speculation: Sabathia will opt out of his contract, but will re-sign with the Yankees for just slightly more money and perhaps an extra season or two.
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