Admittedly, analyzing an analysis is pretty silly.
Fuzzy math from Scouts Inc. on Terrelle Pryor
However, reading the Scouts Inc. scouting report on former Ohio State quarterback Terrelle Pryor has me confused.
I’m not confused about their analysis or expectation that Pryor’s ability to may not transition smoothly to the NFL. After all, this isn’t high literature here. It’s the scouting-based numbers that are confusing. Read all about it after the jump.
ESPN NFL Draft specialists Scouts Inc. rate quarterback on nine criteria – production, height-weight-speed, durability, intangibles, toughness/leadership, intelligence/decision making, accuracy, release/arm strength and pocket mobility.
Each category is given a number ranking from 1-5 as follows:
1. Exceptional
2. Above Average
3. Average
4. Below Average
5. Marginal
Clearly the lower the aggregate total of the nine criteria, the better the prospect should be considered.
For instance, No. 1 overall pick Cam Newton was given a scouts grade of 93. When you add up the nine traits, the total was 17. Blaine Gabbert received a lofty 96 scouts grade with a trait total of 16.
Where this gets odd is when you look at the total for Pryor. The former Ohio State quarterback is a scouts grade of 57. In Scouts Inc. speak, that puts Pryor in this category of prospect:
These are usually players that play at a high level in college, but lack some measurables or skills to play at that same level in the NFL. He may be a player that has a lot of developmental qualities, or could be a player that will contribute right away on special teams or in a situational capacity. He will usually rate in the second-third at his position and is considered a fifth round draft choice.
Fair enough. That generalization actually sums up Pryor pretty well.
The trouble is that in the nine graded traits, Pryor has a total of 23. While far below Newton and Gabbert, it leads to some strange comparisons.
Former Iowa quarterback Ricky Stanzi was given a scouts rating of 75. That's much higher than Pryor. But in the nine traits aggregate, Stanzi is a 22, only a point better than Pryor. Jake Locker has a trait score of 20, but his scouts grade is 90.
Neither of those is the most interesting comparison. Ryan Mallet was given a scouts grade of 82. That classifies Mallet as an “outstanding prospect.” However his trait total is worse than Pryor’s at 25.
This is a reason why we don’t do number ratings at MtD. NFL teams do them, and that’s dandy. But for a draft site, you can easily get caught in a quandary such as this one.
If asked, Scouts Inc. would probably say the scout grade and trait total are not directly related. That’s fine, except the numbers presented lead to confusion.
If anyone from ESPN reads this (and we know you’re out there, friend), an explanation here would be lovely. Email MtD, if you’d be so gracious.
It should be noted that this is not to talk poorly of ESPN. I wake up to Mike and Mike and when my TV is on, it’s usually on one of your many networks. This just has me flustered.
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