Is MLB Scoring Really Down In 2011? And If So, Why?
Costas pointed out that on Opening Day this year, the White Sox defeated the Indians 15-10, and that so far this season, that is the only game in which both teams scored in double digits. Last year, there were five such games by this date and 15 overall; over the previous ten seasons (2000-2009), there were 208 such games, about 21 per season.
The implication was that offensive production is down this year. So is that true? If it is, what’s the reason?
We are approximately one-third of the way through the 2011 season; all teams have played between 54 and 58 games. And yes, it is true that offensive production is down somewhat. Across baseball, teams are averaging 4.22 runs per game; in 2010, for the full season teams averaged 4.38 runs per game. The overall MLB OPS is .711; last season it was .728. Teams are averaging 236.5 runs, which extrapolates to about 685 runs per team over a full season, which is slightly below what the 2010 average was.
Could one reason for the lack of high-scoring games so far in 2011 be the awful weather that's been in place in most of the midwest and northeast? Rain, wind and cold has been the norm, instead of the exception. That might make sense, except... the three lowest-scoring teams are the Athletics, Padres and Dodgers, teams in warm-weather cities. Meanwhile, the Indians and Yankees, who have suffered through some terrible weather, are third and first, respectively, in run-scoring.
How about home runs? In 2010, three teams (the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays) hit 200 or more home runs and the MLB average was 154 per team. In 2011, only one team (the Yankees) is on pace for 200 or more home runs and MLB teams, on average, are on pace for about 144 per team. The MLB overall slugging percentage is .390, compared to last year's .403.
So, perhaps, power is down, and that could be one reason for the lack of high-scoring games. Or it could just be random chance. Overall, to date, there have been 93 games in which any team has scored 10 or more runs. Last year at this juncture of the season, there were 108 such games -- more, but not significantly more.
Let's look at one more potential factor in all this -- competitive balance. Except for the Twins, who are having an uncharacteristically awful season, the other 29 teams are all within 11.5 games of each other. After a similar number of games in 2010, throwing out the league-worst Orioles, the other 29 teams were 15 games apart.
What conclusion can we draw from all of this? Most likely, the fact that there’s been only one game so far this season where both teams have scored 10 or more runs is more attributable to random chance than any real decline in offense. Run-scoring is indeed down, but probably not enough to cause a change like this.
Moral of the story: don’t believe everything you hear on TV.
