Remember the Cleveland Indians? They were the team that opened up a can of whoopass on the competition out of the gate, achieving a seven-game lead in the AL Central by the final third of May. They were the team everybody thought they overlooked, and they were the team that, at 30-15 on May 23, had the best record and run differential in baseball.
The Cleveland Indians, And A Lesson In Perception
The Indians are mired in a miserable slump that’s almost knocked them out of first place, causing us to wonder: Who are these Cleveland Indians really?
Since reaching that high point, they've slumped, and on Wednesday afternoon, they lost to the Twins 3-2 in ten innings, getting shut down by Carl Pavano. The team has lost 11 of 15 games, and the division lead has dwindled all the way down to practically nothing over the Tigers.
The near-instant turnaround is enough to make you wonder what to make of the ballclub. And as I see it, there are three options:
(1) The Indians are a really good team caught in a freak slump
This option has one believe more in the team’s start, and less in the team’s recent play. I don’t know why anybody would go with this option, but I didn’t watch a lot of the Indians early on, and who knows, maybe when they were good, they were convincingly good.
(2) The Indians are a fairly bad team that fluked its way into a hot start
This option has one believe less in the team’s start, and more in the team’s recent play. The Indians were expected to be pretty bad coming in, and their hot streak caught everybody by surprise, so for a lot of people, this slump might seem like the real Indians revealing their true colors.
(3) The Indians are a decent team, and an AL Central contender
You can probably guess which of the three options I consider the most reasonable. Option #1 basically throws out the Indians’ last few weeks. Option #2 basically throws out the Indians’ first few weeks. Option #3 considers everything overall, and as any good statistics professor can tell you, you don’t exclude perfectly good data from a sample for no reason.
If you ignore the streaks and just look at the Indians' Baseball-Reference page, you see a 34-26 team with a 32-28 Pythagorean record, a slightly above-average offense, and an average run prevention unit. That, more than anything else, tells you who these Indians are. They're a team that can hit - especially if Shin-Soo Choo gets going - a team that can field, and a team that can keep from embarrassing itself on the mound, even though none of the pitchers are standouts.
These Indians are neither a great team nor a bad team. Based on all the information, they’re a fine team in a division with nobody markedly better. The big advantage may be gone, but the race is most likely just beginning.
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