There are competitive races in all six major-league divisions as we begin the second half of the 2011 season; in all, 15 teams are within five games of first place.
15 Teams Are Within Five Games Of First Place. What Does This Mean?
So this got me wondering: is this unusual? Some of those teams will drop out of divisional contention and compete for the wild card, but it seems at first glance that we could have multiple exceptionally close division races in all six divisions.
Here’s a table that shows how many teams were within five games of first place in each division, in each of the 17 seasons since the Wild Card era began (I started with 1995, because in 1994... well, we didn’t have any playoff races that year):
| Year | ALE | ALC | ALW | NLE | NLC | NLW | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1995 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 1996 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14 |
| 1997 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 1998 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 1999 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 2000 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 2001 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 2002 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 2003 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 2004 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 2005 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 2006 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 2007 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 2008 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 2009 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 16 |
| 2010 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 2011 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
This table shows that divisional races had many competitors in the early years of the three-divisions setup, fewer from about 1998 through 2005, and then more again from 2006 through now. What most interested me, though, are the handful of races with four or more teams involved, fewer than five games from first place, at the All-Star break. There have been eight such occurrences before this season, and the NL Central in 2011 is currently in that situation. How did the previous divisions that were that competitive end up?
1997 NL Central: This time, all but the Cubs were involved (and even they were marginally in it, as the Pirates led with a .500 record). The Astros, who had muddled around no more than 3-1/2 games behind the entire first half, got hot right after the break, going 18-5, and won the division with a mediocre 84-78 record. They were the Central's only team with a winning record.
2004 NL East: One of the tightest races at the All-Star break, with the top four clubs (all but the Expos -- remember, there used to be Expos?) all within two games of first place. The Braves, finishing up their 14-season playoff run, barely scraped .500 at the break, went 40-14 in July and August and won the division going away.
2006 AL West: All four teams were within 2-1/2 games of each other, and two (the Angels and Mariners) were under .500. On August 1 the gap was still only 3-1/2 games, but then the Athletics went into overdrive, going 21-6 in August; they won the division at 93-69, four games ahead of the Angels.
2006 NL West: This is the only year we've had two divisions this close, and the first to involve all five teams at the break; it was five games from top to bottom. The Dodgers took over first place by winning 17 of 18 after the break, but the Padres got hot in September and the teams wound up tied; the Padres were awarded the division title based on a better head-to-head record and the Dodgers got the Wild Card. This is the closest race of all of this group, although the other three teams dropped 10 or more games behind at season's end.
2009 NL Central: Five teams (again, all but the Pirates) were involved, all within five games of the first-place Cardinals, who briefly ceded first place to the Cubs in early August -- but then St. Louis got hot, going 20-6 in August and winning the division by seven games.
2010 NL West: Four teams, all but the Diamondbacks, were within four games of the division-leading Padres, who led by as many as six games as late as August 28. Then San Diego collapsed and the Giants won the division on the last day of the season, another terrific pennant race.
And now, we have the NL Central in this situation, with the Brewers and Cardinals tied for first place, the Pirates just a game out and the Reds trailing by four. Past races in this situation give us this: Of the previous eight, just three wound up in close races late in the year; the others were all won by teams that got hot not long after the break. That's the most likely outcome, then, if history is a guide: some team in the NL Central will get hot soon, and take control. Perhaps this year it'll be the Pirates, who are currently on a 12-6 run. Or the second half could bring a surprise, as it did in the NL West last year. Fasten your seat belts for the second-half ride.
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