When it comes to the question
Has Dustin Pedroia Jumped Ahead Of Robinson Cano?
Who’s the best second baseman in the American League?
the experts are unanimous: it's Dustin Pedroia rather than Robinson Cano.
Granted, my experts are only two: David Schoenfield and Pete Abraham. But those two are usually good enough for me.
In a nutshell, Pedroia’s having the better season because a) he’s the better fielder, and b) his on-base percentage is a whopping 60 points higher than Cano’s. It’s actually the first of those that makes the real difference. Cano’s slugging percentage nearly balances Pedroia’s on-base percentage. But Pedroia’s playing his usual Gold Glove-quality defense, while Cano is playing second base like a guy who should be playing third base. Or maybe first.
FanGraphs has Cano with 3.0 Wins Above Replacement, which is really good. Pedroia leads major-league second baseman with 5.5 WAR. Cano's probably the fourth- or fifth-best second baseman in the American League, behind not only Pedroia, but also Ben Zobrist and Ian Kinsler. At least if you believe the advanced defensive metrics.*
* Which shall henceforth, at least occasionally in some spots, be known simply as ADM.
I bring all this up, not because I enjoy punching little holes in the Yankees' pinstriped armor (though of course I do). I bring all this up because there's a lesson in here somewhere.
In the spring of 2010, I compared Pedroia and Cano and came down on the side of Pedroia (though just barely).
In the spring of 2011, I compared Pedroia and Cano, and this time came down on the side of Cano.
My reasoning was simple: Cano had demonstrated an ability (or the good fortune) to stay healthy, season in and season out, while Pedroia had not.
My reasoning was simplistic, though. True, Pedroia played only 75 games in 2010. But he’d played 157 games in 2008 and 154 games in ‘09. Should we really have expected him to be seriously injured again in 2011, or beyond? Or were his 2008 and ‘9 seasons more predictive of his durability?
We don't know yet. We do know that Pedroia has started all but three Red Sox games this season, and we know that he's quite probably the best second baseman on the planet.
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