It was assumed heading into the season that the Philadelphia Phillies and their new-look rotation with four aces would be the top staff in the majors. We all know baseball, for all of the accurate predictions we can make, tends to meander from its expected course: for a variety of reasons, Philadelphia's rotation may not be the best in the game after all. In fact, there are more than a few competitors for vying for that honor, including a staff that will take on the Phillies this weekend.
Who Has The Best Rotation In The Majors?
With the Braves and Phillies fighting for NL East supremacy this weekend, we wonder who has the best rotation in the majors.
The Phillies have Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels to their credit, but a back injury to Roy Oswalt has kept them from fielding those four aces at once for the whole season (and may keep them from having all four together again this year). Three starters have combined to replace Oswalt's handful of missing starts as well as the fifth starter duties, with Vance Worley making eight starts, Kyle Kendrick seven, and Joe Blanton six.
Blanton has dealt with right elbow problems, so the job of replacing Oswalt as long as is necessary and taking the fifth slot in the rotation will fall to Worley and Kendrick. Worley has a 2.20 ERA at the moment, but he has not been nearly that good. He is around the league average strikeout rate and giving up more walks than is average, and has had his stats buoyed by a .256 BABIP and nearly 80 percent strand rate. As a flyball pitcher in a hitter’s park, the honeymoon won’t last forever, either. He should be able to do a decent job as a back-end hurler, but he’s no Oswalt. Of course, Kendrick is no Worley, and his 3.64 ERA this year is something of a mystery given his 3.9 strikeouts per nine and 1.4 K/BB ratio.
As excellent as the trio atop the rotation is, the back keeps Philadelphia from having the staff that their fans dreamed of back in the spring. It’s still the second-best in the majors right now according to Baseball Prospectus’s Fair Run Average (FRA separates pitching and fielding to get a sense of what pitchers have been responsible for), though, so there is little to complain or worry about.
Their opponent this weekend, the Braves, are on top of the FRA leaderboard, edging out the Phillies 3.55 to 3.63. While Atlanta doesn't have the same sexy set of names in their rotation (unless the ladies dig the ground ball as much as the long ball, anyway), they have made up for it with depth. The durable Derek Lowe, who has made at least 30 starts a year every season since 2002, is having a better season than his 4.21 ERA indicates, with an FRA of 3.00 and an FIP of 3.48, on the strength of a league average strikeout rate paired with nearly 60 percent groundballs. He isn't the lone groundballer of merit, as Tim Hudson is having a quality follow-up to his excellent 2010 campaign, backed by a 6.4 K/9 and 58 percent grounders.
They do have pitchers who can miss bats, as well. The real ace of the staff, Tommy Hanson, is in the midst of a breakout campaign, punching out 9.6 batters per nine and holding opponents to a line of .192/.269/.317. He won't keep his ERA under three all year, but he is one of the top pitchers in the NL East, a distinction that is more impressive than it sounds.
Rookie Brandon Beachy is striking out 10.6 hitters per nine, and now has whiffed 10.3 per nine with a 4.0 K/BB ratio in his 76-1/3 innings in the majors. He was always a strikeout machine in the minors, and that has carried over to the majors. It's still somewhat of a surprise, given he was slotted to be more of a back-of-the-rotation arm, but if he keeps striking hitters out like this, it will be tough to keep those expectations low. He has done well enough that Mike Minor, who was considered a better prospect by many experts, has spent his time as a fill-in starter rather than a regular.
Jair Jurrjens is the wild card here for Atlanta, as he has a 1.87 ERA that leads the NL despite middling peripherals. His FIP is 3.10, though, so even if regression hits in the second half, Jurrjens should still be a quality starter for Atlanta. Of course, Jurrjens has done this before, so that has led some to wonder if there is more to it than something like FIP can explain.
There is quality pitching outside of the NL East, to which the San Francisco Giants can attest. Their staff, anchored by Tim Lincecum and a pitcher who knows a thing or two about beating FIP, Matt Cain, is third in the majors in FRA at 3.66, just a hair behind the Phillies. Madison Bumgarner has rebounded from a poor start to the year to drop his ERA to 3.87. He is striking out just under eight hitters per nine and has a solid 3.4 K/BB ratio. The fact his ERA is 3.87 despite a .342 BABIP is impressive -- expect both of those numbers to fall with more innings.
Jonathan Sanchez has been his usual wild self, holding hitters to just a .212 batting average but allowing them to get on base 34 percent of the time thanks to 5.9 walks per nine. When you're striking out 9.2 hitters per nine and have a K/BB under two, you're doing it wrong. He is currently on the DL with biceps tendinitis, a fact that may be a blessing in disguise given the performance of Ryan Vogelsong and the return of Barry Zito. While the latter will never live up to his contract, he has been a dependable and average starter for the Giants, perfect for the back of a strong rotation.
Vogelsong is more of a surprise. The 33-year-old has come back to the majors for the first time since 2006 to post a 2.13 ERA with solid peripherals. While expecting him to repeat the performance exactly in the second half is a bit much, it’s tough to complain about his strikeout (7.9 per nine) or walk numbers (2.9). Brian Sabean is often easy to tease due to his affinity for veterans and some odd signings and trades over the years, but give credit where credit is due in regards to acquiring and using Vogelsong when a spot opened up with Zito’s first injury in a decade.
Things get a bit murkier in the "best rotation" picture following these three clubs. Not only do they lead the pack by a wide margin, but the most attractive options following them are teams like the Mariners and Padres who have the benefit of extremely friendly pitcher parks, and staffs like those of the Angels that are comprised of two dominating pitchers and then three guys who are lucky to still have jobs. The Phillies, Braves, and Giants were all expected to have production rotations, but these three are far and away the easy choices for top starting staffs in the game.
These pitchers have kept all three teams in the race despite weak offensive production, and there is a very good chance we will get to see all three of them pitch in October as well -- consider tonight’s match-up between Brandon Beachy and Roy Halladay a potential playoff preview.
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