There is no question that the Blue Jays' and Angels' swap of Vernon Wells and Mike Napoli last winter was confusing. Wells still had $86 million owed to him over the next four years thanks to an extension -- just $5 million of which the Blue Jays remain responsible for -- and even with his quality 2010 campaign, he'd averaged just 2.1 wins above replacement since signing it in 2008. Napoli, for all of his defensive shortcomings behind the plate, was still inexpensive and productive thanks to his bat.
Mike Napoli Will Have His Revenge On Los Angeles
Losing Mike Napoli was bad enough for the Angels, but the fact Texas has him instead may end up costing them playoff baseball.
While the Angels didn't directly move Napoli to the rival Texas Rangers, the Jays did that four days later, in exchange for reliever Frank Francisco. Whether or not that was a good trade by Toronto isn't important: what is important is that now, not only do the Angels have to deal with Wells and his lack of production, but they have spent the season watching Napoli hit like crazy for the team they are trying to catch in the standings.
The Angels have played well in spite of Wells' contract and his .210/.243/.379 line in 362 plate appearances, and are just 1-1/2 games behind the Rangers in the AL West and six behind the Yankees in the Wild Card race. Wells has basically been replacement level during his 87 games, with an rWAR of -0.4, meaning the Angels could throw just about any available option out there and they would likely do as well or better than with Wells. And for a lot less than $18 million.
Napoli has played in 72 of Texas's games, splitting time between catcher, first base, and the occasional day at DH, and has hit .295/.395/.603 with 18 homers. He has amassed 3.2 rWAR already; another way to think of it is that Napoli has been worth nearly two wins more than the Angels' catchers, Wells, and first baseman Mark Trumbo combined.
Jeff Mathis and Hank Conger have spent the bulk of the time behind the plate, but recently Bobby Wilson joined the mix in place of Conger. The trio has combined to be replacement level on the year (-0.2 rWAR), something Angels' backstops never were with Napoli in town. There are arguments about just how valuable Mathis and his ability to frame pitches are, but even if he were the best in the game and Napoli were the very worst, he wouldn't be matching up with Napoli's value, as he's approaching the elite .300/.400/.600 level with his bat. Out of qualified players in 2011, just Jose Bautista is above that -- Napoli is five points of batting average away from joining him.
Let's do a little hypothetical with the Angels' 2011 roster. Assume the Napoli trade never happened, and that Vernon Wells is still comfortably enjoying the confines of the Rogers Centre. In this imagined world, we don't yet know that it's poutine that fuels Wells, and that he is powerless without a steady diet of it. Napoli still splits time behind the plate with Mathis as always, but thanks to the Kendrys Morales injury, he also finds time at DH and first base, just like he has in Texas and like in 2010.
Juan Rivera would also still be in town, so let's assume he would be the left fielder rather than Wells, and that he would be around replacement level, like Wells has been back in reality and Rivera has been for much of his 11-year career. The Angles would be looking at another 2-3 wins (depending on how often Trumbo sits for Napoli), and since Napoli wouldn't be with the Rangers, it's safe to presume they would be 2-3 wins worse. That is, unless you can think of another catcher/DH they could have acquired that would have hit like Napoli has. (Remember that list that consists solely of Bautista and almost-Napoli? And that Jarrod Saltalamacchia was dealt to Boston last July? Next question.)
That swap of 2-3 wins would have the Angels in first place right now, and they also would have had another $12 million sitting around. It’s not that the 1-1/2 games they’re behind Texas is a massive deficit. But without the major trade and acquisition of a player who has done nothing but cash very big checks, the Angels would probably be in first place already.
It’s a completely different season if that move never happens. It’s even a completely different season if Toronto doesn’t move Napoli to Texas, as the Angels would be without the power-hitting backstop, but their rivals would be, too. Wells may not be this bad over the remaining life of his contract, but the rest of the payment is left to Los Angeles. As 2011 is showing, it’s costing them more than just dollars already.
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