The Red Sox are going to the playoffs, and their No. 3 starter currently owns a 6.13 ERA.
Are We Finally Seeing The Real John Lackey?
But maybe John Lackey's ERA doesn't tell the whole story. After all, before Lackey hit the Disabled List in May, his ERA was 8.01 and there was talk about season-ending surgery. But as Peter Abraham writes, Lackey's been significantly better since returning to the Red Sox rotation ...
Lackey received a cortisone shot and was out for 25 days before returning. He is 9-3 in 13 starts since with an ERA of 5.17.
The last seven starts have been even better, Lackey going 6-0 with an ERA of 3.92. His consistency has helped the Red Sox overcome the loss of No. 3 starter Clay Buchholz to a back injury.
--snip--
Lackey has shown a better changeup since his return from the disabled list and more bite on his slider. It’s all a matter of arm strength, he said.
"Basically, it’s better health,’’ he said. "Being able to get pitches in the right locations. My velocity is better. I don’t know exactly the numbers, but I know it’s better.’’
Said Beckett: "I don’t look at it like a turnaround because I know some of the stuff he was going through. He’s sure stuck to it and now he’s getting rewarded. That’s pretty awesome.’’
The stuff includes the elbow injury and his wife Krista’s battle with breast cancer, both of which are impossible to place into any real context; all we can say is that any pitcher would be adversely affected by an elbow injury, and any pitcher might struggle with his on-the-field performance if his off-the-field life included something like Lackey’s has.
So let’s stick with the numbers for the moment. Lackey was supposedly healthy last season, and his wife’s cancer was diagnosed last winter. Lackey’s performance this season is essentially the same as last season. He’s given up a few more home runs, while his strikeout-to-walk ratio is slightly higher. The only real difference is ERA, and you know that ERA is subject to various outside influences.
Whether this year or last year, Lackey just hasn’t been the pitcher the Red Sox thought they were getting.
In his last two seasons with the Angels, Lackey's strikeout-to-walk ratio was 3.1.
In his first two seasons with the Red Sox, it’s been 2.2.
That’s a massive difference.
In fairness, a pitcher who strikes out twice as many as he walks -- assuming he doesn’t give up an ungodly number of home runs -- can certainly survive and perhaps even thrive in the majors. He’s just not (usually) worth $15 million per season.
If Lackey keeps pitching this way, though, his ERA will come down. Abraham cites that 3.92 figure in Lackey’s last seven starts, but that’s both highly selective and somewhat deceptive. Why seven starts? In his last six starts, Lackey’s ERA is 4.62; in his last eight it’s 5.09.
What’s encouraging is that whatever the ERA, Lackey has pitched quite a bit better lately. Since coming off the DL in early June, Lackey’s struck out 60 batters and walked only 16. If this is something close to the real John Lackey, as he exists for the rest of 2011 and perhaps through the life of his contract (which runs through 2014), he might actually be worth all that money. More to the matter at hand, he might be good enough to win two or three games this October.
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