The number one thing any organization wants, obviously, is a group of talented players. Talented players turn baseball organizations into winning baseball organizations. But as a subgroup of that, organizations also want talented players who want to play there. They don’t just want a bunch of mercenaries - they want players who are loyal to the team, and loyal to the city. With loyal, dedicated players, the whole experience can reach another level.
Heath Bell, And When Loyalty Becomes A Detriment
Heath Bell really loves pitching in San Diego, and it’s throwing a wrench into the Padres’ organizational plans.
The Padres, then, have had a good one in closer Heath Bell. Not only has Bell been successful on the field since arriving in 2007; he's been hugely popular, he's been loyal to the team, and he's been active in the community. He's happily been one of the few faces of an otherwise faceless roster.
But while Bell’s commitment to the Padres and the city of San Diego has been terrific, it looks now like it may pose a problem in the near future.
First, some quick and necessary background: Bell is a free-agent-to-be, his contract expiring after this season. He was highly coveted leading up to the trade deadline, and the expectation was that he would land with the Rangers, Cardinals or Phillies. However, the market didn't develop as the Padres hoped, so they traded Mike Adams instead, with the presumptive plan of offering Bell arbitration in the fall and then collecting draft-pick compensation when he turned it down and signed with someone else.
Great. Sensible. The Padres wouldn’t be the first team to hang onto an impending free agent, valuing the future draft picks over underwhelming trade offers. But as Bill Center writes, there is one big problem with this plan:
"If I don’t have a multi-year deal and they offer me arbitration, I will accept arbitration," Bell said. "My wife (Nicole) and I talked about all the scenarios last night.
"There is no downside to me accepting arbitration and the family staying in San Diego for at least another year. My kids love it here. My family is happy here. And I’m in a position where I can make some decisions right now.
"The ball is in my court. I want to stay in San Diego. And I want to win here."
We’re not inside Bell’s head, so we don’t know how serious he is about this. Bell is openly seeking a three-year contract extension to remain in San Diego. But from the sounds of things, there will be no free-agent compensation. There will only be Heath Bell.
A 34-year-old Heath Bell who’s in line to make eight figures in 2012 through the arbitration process. And it’s not like the Padres are on the verge of contention. They’re going the right way. They’ve improved the organization. But they’re probably not going to catch the competition as soon as next year.
The Padres right now face three options:
(1) Bring Bell back in 2012, probably through arbitration
(2) Decline to offer Bell arbitration and let him walk
(3) Sign Bell to a three-year extension
If they go the first route, they can re-visit trading Bell again next season. Once again, he’d be a free-agent-to-be closer, and maybe he’d drum up more interest. But Bell will be a year older. His strikeout rate is down significantly this season from where it was a season ago, and there’s no guarantee he’s still highly effective, or even moderately effective next summer.
If they go the second route, Bell leaves and they get nothing back. Not a single player. They save some money, but that’s it.
And if they go the third route, well, again, Bell turns 34 soon, and his 11.1 K/9 last year is down to 6.9 this year. Closers are volatile, and Bell’s indicators aren’t trending in the right direction, which makes him a huge gamble on a long-term deal. The Padres might be able to get Bell signed to a two-year contract with a third-year option, but then there’s the same risk. It’s just a little reduced.
Maybe Bell sticks around for the rest of his career. Maybe he ages gracefully, like Trevor Hoffman. He's already beloved, and he received a standing ovation from the Petco fans on Sunday when he pitched after the deadline had passed. That, I guess, would be the ideal outcome. But with Bell, the Padres' front office is left doing a little more hoping now than they'd probably like to.
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