"You have to start talking about Ian Kennedy as a legitimate Cy Young candidate."
- John Kruk (paraphrased)
Is Ian Kennedy A Viable Cy Young Candidate?
Kennedy, you will remember, was a piece of the three-team, seven-player trade two years ago that sent
* Kennedy and Edwin Jackson to the Diamondbacks;
* Austin Jackson, Max Scherzer, Phil Coke and Daniel Schlereth to the Tigers; and
* Curtis Granderson to the Yankees.
Last year, the Diamondbacks traded Edwin Jackson to the White Sox for Daniel Hudson.
It’s sometimes said that a trade is good for both teams. Which is usually the case, probably. If only because most general managers aren’t foolish enough to make a trade that’s bad for his team. In this case, the trade’s been good for all three teams. Nearly two years later, I suspect that each club would be pretty thrilled to do it all over again.
All that said, if there’s one player in the deal that a general manager might really like to have back, it’s probably Ian Kennedy. When Brian Cashman included him in the deal, Kennedy was coming off a season mostly lost to an aneurysm under his right armpit; the season (2008) before that, he’d gone 0-4 with an 8.17 ERA in 10 games as a major-league Yankee. He’d spent some time on the DL that season, too.
Through it all, though, Kennedy had pitched brilliantly in the minor leagues. In only 22 starts in Class AAA, he’d posted a 2.14 ERA, struck out nearly four times as many as he walked, and gave up six home runs in 126 innings. And all of those numbers were roughly on par with what he’d done at the lower levels, too. There simply wasn’t anything not to love about Kennedy, except that he’d been unable to stay healthy for two seasons running.
Could Cashman have gotten Granderson without sending Kennedy, or perhaps Phil Hughes, to the Diamondbacks? Perhaps not. Arizona was obviously looking for a young starting pitcher who was essentially MLB-ready, and the Yankees didn't have many pitchers like that. Considering how well Granderson has played since last August -- and considering also that Austin Jackson is struggling to hit, I doubt if Cashman would like to take this one back. Still, with the Yankees' rotation looking really good right now but really empty a year or two from now, Kennedy would look pretty good in pinstripes, especially over the next two or three seasons.
All of which is a long-winded way of getting to this: Ian Kennedy has been really good this season.
Sunday, he recorded his 17th victory, which leads the National League. Just as impressive, he’s lost only four times and his .810 winning percentage also leads the National League.
Is he a Cy Young candidate, though?
Kennedy ranks fifth in innings, seventh in strikeouts, ninth in ERA+ and 11th in fWAR.
Kennedy does pitch roughly half his innings in a hitter’s park, but of course ERA+ and fWAR take that into consideration (however crudely). He also seems to have been at least somewhat lucky this season, limiting hitters to a .272 batting average on balls in play. On the one hand, that matches his career BABiP allowed exactly. On the other, even the best pitchers can’t count on maintaining a figure that low for long.
So Ian Kennedy isn’t the best pitcher in the National League. But that wasn’t the question, was it? The question was about winning the Cy Young Award, not deserving it.
And I would suggest that he’s got a real shot.
Cy Young voters focus on three statistics: wins, ERA, and strikeouts. Last year when Félix Hernández was the American League's Cy Young winner with only 13 wins, it was hailed as some sort of victory for the pointy-headed sabermetricians ... but Hernández led the league with a 2.27 ERA and was just one strikeout behind league-leader Jered Weaver in that category. I'm not saying sabermetrics didn't make a difference; without a doubt, some of the voters looked at WAR, and most of them don't obsess over a pitcher's wins like they used to. I'm just saying that the old stats do still matter.
With that in mind, Kennedy might be one of only four legitimate Cy Young candidates. That's how Bill James's Cy Young Predictor sees it, anyway: Roy Halladay, Clayton Kershaw, Ian Kennedy and Cliff Lee are currently the only real candidates, by virtue of their wins, strikeouts, and earned-run averages.
The Predictor has them bunched pretty tightly, but the Predictor was invented eight years ago and the Cy Young voters have gotten smarter. My guess is that if the balloting were done today, Halladay would win easily. His ERA is just fourth best in the league, his wins third best. But his WAR is tops, thanks largely to a 7.9 strikeout-to-walk ratio that’s miles better than anyone else (in either league).
Wins might matter, though. Kennedy’s got 17, Halladay 15 (and Kershaw 16). If one of these guys goes crazy and wins 21 or 22 while the others stall out, that might carry the day. Kennedy might get a little extra credit for pitching well down the stretch, especially if the Diamondbacks manage to pull off their unlikely worst-to-first campaign in the National League West.
Is Ian Kennedy likely to win the Cy Young Award? No.
Is he a viable candidate? You bet your sweet bippy he is.
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