Nah.
Should The Phillies Be Worried About Their Lack Of Momentum Heading Into The Playoffs?
Well, that's the answer to the question as framed in the headline. The Phillies lost eight straight heading into Sunday, just a week as if they seemed like a lock to finish with 100+ wins. The pitching staff has a 4.63 ERA over the losing streak, and the Phillies have scored more than three runs just once, when they scored five runs last Wednesday. So the pitchers aren't pitching as well as they can, and the offense has shut down completely. The playoffs are coming -- shouldn't the Phillies be worried that things are going wrong at the worst time possible?
Nah.
There’s science behind that kind of glib certainty. Dave Studeman of the Hardball Times might have written the definitive article on the subject here. After surveying the teams who made the playoffs from 1969 through 2004, Studeman didn’t find a meaningful correlation between a team’s performance in September and October.
That's about right, and it's especially true for the Phillies. They wrapped up home-field advantage and the NL East a long, long time ago. If there was anything for which to play over the past week, it was momentum. Momentum and the warm-fuzzy tummy feelings that come with winning 105 games or so. But it probably doesn't mean anything. When the NLDS starts, the Phillies will still throw Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, and Cole Hamels out there along with an offense that's been close to average without a full season from Chase Utley. It's an amazing collection of talent, and it's unlikely that a losing streak of meaningless games will negate that.
But there is something the Phillies should be worried about, and it’s the last sentence of Studeman’s up there. Baseball over a short selection of games is inherently unpredictable. You knew that already, but it was easy to forget when the Phillies were marching towards 105 wins. They were invincible, even to the postseason-is-random cynics. That rotation sure seems like it will be murder in a short series.
But over the losing streak, the Phillies have had games where they couldn’t hit Ross Detwiler, where Roy Halladay struggled with his command, and where their bullpen couldn’t hold a tie. That will happen over 162 games -- sometimes, they’ll happen in consecutive games. And, heck, it could happen in three straight games in the Division Series.
So should the Phillies be concerned with the losing streak as it concerns momentum and their chances to advance in the postseason? Nah. Not at all. Should the Phillies be concerned that they play baseball, which can be a little quirky on a game-by-game basis? Well, them and seven other playoff teams. Sometimes it takes a late-season losing streak like this to remember that.
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