March Madness Trends: Advice For Picking Second Round Winners

Not every college basketball fan knows Xavier, but every March Madness bettor certainly does.

The Musketeers, out of the Atlantic 10 Conference, are the hottest Madness bet over the past decade with a money-making 15-2-1 against the spread (ATS) mark in 18 games.

So while most of the attention is on No. 1 seeds like North Carolina and Syracuse and marquee schools like Kansas and Duke, the best value often comes from mid-major teams.

It’s important information for the Vegas traveller and the guy hoping to win his bracket contest.

Xavier is the best example and they are a No. 10 seed facing Notre Dame this week as two point underdogs. Check out the matchup report here. They are 0-3 SU and ATS vs Irish since 1995. But there are many other options, whether you are betting on a team or fading them.

Creighton, for example, has been one-and-done the past four NCAA tournaments and is 0-4 ATS in those first-round losses. The Jays are a No. 8 seed against Alabama in the Midwest Region and an underdog of 1.5 points. Check out our matchup report.

An interesting trend in the No. 8 vs. No. 9 game over the years (see seed vs. seed trends on every matchup) is that the underdog almost always covers – they are 14-4 ATS in 18 recent matchups of those seeds. That would make Creighton a winner in 2012 if the trend holds up.

UConn is 9-2 ATS in its past 11 tournament games, making them one of the best bets on the board historically. Last year, they parlayed that success to a national title. This year, they are small chalk against Iowa State. Check out the matchup report.

Another mid-major that has been profitable for bettors is Virginia Commonwealth. VCU is 9-1 ATS its past 10 Tournament games and they are a dangerous 12-seed against Wichita State in the South Region.

Finally, West Virginia has also been a great March Madness bet, going 14-4 ATS in 18 recent NCAA Tournament games.

Among teams to fade, keep an eye on Duke. They had been doing much better as a March team in recent years, but they are 0-5 ATS in their past five. They have also struggled recently as a double digit favorite, going just 3-10 ATS in that role.

Gonzaga is just 2-7 ATS in their past nine Tournament games and Louisville only 1-6 ATS in their past seven Tournament games (including a loss to Morehead State as No. 4 seed in 2011).

And beware Vanderbilt, the surprise SEC Champion. They have been upset in the first round the past three tournaments.

More March Madness Trends (and general team trends) courtesy of Odds Shark:

• Florida OVER is 10-1-1 past 12 tournament games
• Florida 6-2 ATS past 8 tournament games

• Davidson 6-1 ATS past 7 Madness games

• Gonzaga OVER is 10-2 past 12 tournament games
• Gonzaga just 2-7 ATS past 9 tournament games
• Indiana 4-1 ATS past 5 first-round games
• Kentucky 1-5 ATS past 6 games as double-digit favorite
• Louisville 1-6 ATS past 7 tournament games (lost to Morehead State as No. 4 seed in 2011)
• Louisville 2-5 ATS past 7 first-round games
• Louisville UNDER 7-1 past 8 games
• Marquette 2-6 ATS past 8 first-round games
• Marquette OVER is 7-2 past 9 games overall
• Marquette OVER is 6-0 past 6 games as a favorite
• Memphis OVER is 10-1 past 11 tournament games
• Memphis 10-1 ATS past 11 games as favorite
• Memphis 10-1 ATS past 11 games overall
• Michigan State 8-4 ATS past 12 tournament games
• Michigan State 9-2 ATS past 11 games as double-digit favorite
• Missouri OVER is 11-2-1 past 14 tournament games
• Missouri 8-2 ATS past 10 games overall
• Missouri played 9 straight OVERs
• Notre Dame 1-6 ATS past 7 tournament games
• Ohio State 2-5 ATS past 7 first-round games
• Syracuse 6-2 ATS past 8 first round games
• Syracuse 1-6 ATS past 7 games overall
• Texas OVER is 7-1 past 8 tournament games
• UConn is 9-2 ATS past 11 tournament games
• UConn UNDER is 5-1 past 6 tournament games
• UConn OVER is 7-1 past 8 games overall
• UNLV OVER is 5-1 past 6 tournament games
• UNLV 2-8 ATS past 10 games overall
• Vandy has been upset in the first round past three tournaments
• Vandy UNDER is 5-1-1 past 7 tournament games
• Vandy 7-2 ATS past 9 games overall
• Vandy 6-2 ATS past 8 games as favorite
• VCU 9-1 ATS past 10 tournament games
• VCU 17-1 SU past 18 games overall
• VCU 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS past 10 games as underdog
• West Virginia 14-4 ATS in tournament games since 2001
• Wichita State 12-4 ATS past 16 games overall
• Wisconsin 4-1 ATS past 5 first-round games
• Xavier 15-2-1 ATS in tournament games since 2001
• Xavier 0-3 SU and ATS vs Irish since 1995