2012 Kentucky Derby Contenders: Prospective

Horse: Prospective
Trainer: Mark Casse
Pedigree: By Malibu Moon out of a Awesome Again mare (Spirited Away)
Career Record: 8-4-2-0
Career Earnings: $443,192
Notable Races: G1-Blue Grass (6^th); G2-Tampa Bay Derby (1^st); G2-Sam F. Davis (2^nd); G1-Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (13^th); G3-Grey (1^st)

Can He Win The 2012 Kentucky Derby?:

In his final prep race prior to the Derby, Prospective ran a disappointing 6^th in the Blue Grass Stakes over the Polytrack at Keeneland. Given that the race came over a synthetic surface, it’s probably okay to just toss that race into the bin and judge this colt purely on his dirt form.

Prospective ran well at Tampa Bay Downs this spring, winning the Tampa Bay Derby and finishing second in the Sam F. Davis, but there are some major class issues with this colt as he heads into the Derby. The prep races at Tampa don’t look to be particularly strong this year and his only other attempt to run against the best of this year’s contenders was in last fall’s Breeders’ cup Juvenile, where he finished a distant 13^th. While juvenile form has little bearing on a horse’s chances of winning the Derby, this colt appears to be just a notch or two below the top contenders in this year’s race.

If you are thinking about making a bet on Prospective in Saturday's Kentucky Derby, make sure you get good odds on this colt. Anything less than 50/1 is probably not good value considering the question marks he's facing.