A.J. Ellis has a .454 on-base percentage.
A Decade Of Patience, Patience
A.J. Ellis has waited a long time to start for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Now he’s having one of the best seasons in baseball.
You might be a fan of an NL West team, or you might be Mrs. Ellis. If you’re not either of those, this tidbit might surprise you. Another thing that might surprise you: There’s a player named A.J. Ellis playing baseball professionally. There is, and he has a .454 on-base percentage. If the season ended today, that would be the second-best all-time mark for a catcher. I’m not sure where it would rank for catchers after the 35th game of the year -- there’s still a lot of squatting left in this season, which can make for a tired bat. But the overall point stands: Ellis is doing things that catchers aren’t supposed to do.
Another thing catchers aren't supposed to do is start their major-league careers when they're 31. That's when catchers are supposed to slow down. Think of Charles Johnson, Todd Hundley, and Mike Scioscia, three former Dodger catchers who turned 32 and vanished into a fog of injury.
So we have a 31-year-old catcher beginning his career as a starting catcher and hitting like Mickey Cochrane. Okay. Matt Kemp has been getting the publicity, but Ellis has almost matched him in value. Baseball Reference's calculation of WAR has them tied at 1.6; FanGraphs gives Kemp a 2.3 to 1.7 edge. If you don't care for WAR, here's a stat for you: A.J. Ellis has a .454 on-base percentage. Feels like I should mention that.
How does a catcher make it to 31 years old with a .406 OBP in his minor-league career without ever getting a starting job? Russell Martin was firmly entrenched there for a while, and Ellis isn't the smoothest receiver behind the plate, even if he has a good arm. There was also a concern that his OBP wouldn't translate to the majors because of his lack of power. In almost 700 at-bats at Albuquerque, he hit two home runs. Even Jason Tyner gets to make fun of that.
So far this season, Ellis has three home runs -- one off his career high at any level -- and five doubles. At the age of 31, in his first extended major-league trial, moving from the PCL to Dodger Stadium, he’s showing more power than he ever has. He also has a .454 on-base percentage.
Yes, it’s early. But it isn’t too early to start the grassroots campaign for the A.J. Ellis All-Star bandwagon. And it’s probably not too early to move Ellis the hell away from the eighth spot in the lineup. I did some research, and it turns out that he has a .454 on-base percentage, which is highly desirable. And if you think that OBP is inflated by him hitting in front of the pitcher, you’re partially right. A breakdown of his 21 walks this season:
Leading off inning/no outs - 4
One out - 3
Two outs with starting pitcher on deck - 2
Two outs, but before a pinch-hitter - 3
Hitting above eighth spot - 4
Intentional walk - 5
A third of his walks have to do with his spot in a National League batting order. Take those away -- and it's pretty unfair to just lop off seven walks from an OBP because you're assuming they wouldn't have happened in a different situation -- and you still have a .416 OBP. A little less historic. Still amazing for a catcher. Still overqualified for a #8 hitter. Though, to be fair, the #2 spot has been filled with Mark Ellis (no relation, other than the walks) for most of the year, and he's off to a good start to the season.
Will A.J. Ellis keep hitting like this? No. Not to be cynical, but ... no, he will probably not have one of the greatest offensive seasons for a catcher in baseball history. But adjust the OBP down by a full 100 points. That seems like an overcorrection, and it would still lead to a ridiculously productive season. Over the last two years, his OBP was .376 in 231 plate appearances. That seems a touch more reasonable, especially considering that his .381 batting average on balls in play is boosting his OBP right now, but his career averages would still be tremendous for a starting catcher. And it’s not like he has to give the .454 back from the first part of the season because it was unlikely. He gets to keep those hits and walks.
But, hell, we’re talking about a 31-year-old catcher starting for the first time. That’s not supposed to happen in the first place, so we should probably take the restrictor plates off our expectations. A .454 OBP? Sure, whatever. Make it .554 if you want. Players like this aren’t just supposed to fall through the cracks, so let him do whatever he wants.
There are a lot of reasons for the Dodgers' hot start. Ellis might be a) the most surprising, and b) the best baseball story of them all. After riding buses for the past decade, Ellis has decided that he'd rather walk.
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