The Los Angeles Angels got off to a horrible start this season, lowlighted by a career-worst performance by expensive free-agent acquisition Albert Pujols. Going into Tuesday's action they were second-to-last in the American League in runs scored, ahead of only the woeful Twins.
When All Else Fails, Fire The Hitting Coach
Albert Pujols is off to the worst start of his, or nearly anyone’s, career. This must be the fault of his hitting coach. Right?
Yeah, yeah, you know all this already. But wait! The Angels found a solution -- they fired hitting coach Mickey Hatcher. Who had been with the team for 12 years, six of them playoff seasons.
Pujols must have known this firing was coming, because just before it, he went 3-for-4 with two RBI, his first such game this season. Problem solved! Right?
Not so fast. The Angels are still third-to-last in the AL in runs scored. Pujols is still OPS’ing about half his career average (.536). Will firing Hatcher mean anything? The Angels think it will:
“Mickey is a terrific guy, well-liked, very energetic and hard-working. This is about providing a different voice for our offensive players,” general manager Jerry Dipoto said. “It’s a results-oriented business we’re in and we need to find a way to string together something better than what we are right now. It’s a decision to find a different voice.”
Tuesday’s move reflects a difference of philosophy between previous regimes in Anaheim and Dipoto’s increased emphasis on on-base percentage and the incorporation of advanced analytics into the team’s approach. Hatcher emphasized an aggressive approach at the plate.Do moves like this actually work? Four teams -- the Rangers, Marlins, Indians and Dodgers (in chronological order) fired their hitting coaches during 2011. How’d they do after the dates of the dismissals?
Through June 8, 2011, the Rangers had scored 298 runs in 63 games, 4.73 per game. For the rest of the season, they scored 557 runs in 99 games, 5.63 per game. They were 35-28 at the time of the firing and went 61-38 after.
Through June 9, 2011, the Marlins had scored 243 runs in 61 games, 3.98 per game. For the rest of the season, they scored 382 runs in 101 games, 3.78 per game. They were 31-30 at the time of the firing and went 41-60 after.
Through June 19, 2011, the Indians had scored 307 runs in 70 games, 4.39 per game. For the rest of the season, they scored 397 runs in 92 games, 4.32 per game. They were 39-31 at the time of the firing and went 41-51 after.
Through July 20, 2011, the Dodgers had scored 353 runs in 98 games, 3.60 per game. For the rest of the season, they scored 291 runs in 64 games, 4.55 per game. They were 43-55 at the time of the firing and went 39-24 after.
Those results define "inconclusive". Two of the teams did better, two did worse. The Dodgers' success can also be credited to good pitching; They allowed just 3.46 runs per game after they changed hitting coaches -- maybe Dave Hansen, the interim hitting coach who was retained for this year, helped pitchers, too?
Not likely. Looking through game logs for those four teams, there's one common thread -- the hitting coaches were fired after a fairly long stretch of low run-scoring, even if the team had done fairly well up to that time. This sort of thing happens all the time. Gerald Perry was the hitting coach for the Cubs in 2008 when they led the National League in runs scored (by 56). The Cubs struggled to score runs in 2009. Did Perry suddenly get dumb? The same thing happened to the Cubs' crosstown rivals; Von Joshua was the White Sox' hitting coach in 2000, when they won the AL Central and led the major leagues in runs with 978. The White Sox got off to an awful 14-29 start in 2001. Solution? Of course, fire Joshua! (Joshua must have gotten smart in the eight years following, because he was the man the Cubs hired to replace Perry.)
All those numbers don’t really mean a whole lot. The Angels are struggling, particularly their big-name, big-dollar free agent, and management felt it had to do something. Firing the hitting coach is generally the easy thing to do, even if it’s someone like Mickey Hatcher, who had devoted more than a decade to the team and had been a key part of their success over several seasons.
It’s something that’s easy to do, doesn’t disrupt most of the coaching staff nor team, and at least in this case, pleases the big-name, big-dollar free agent (there had been reports that Hatcher and Pujols weren’t getting along, although that dispute was presumably settled a day later).
But will it actually help improve Angels hitters and run-scoring? Based on other similar firings, there’s likely only a 50-50 chance.
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