Well, yes.
Does Phil Hughes Have A Home-Run Problem?
Wednesday afternoon in the Bronx, Phil Hughes got knocked out after giving up four home runs, and he’s now given up 19 homers in only 78 innings. Does Hughes have chronic gopheritis?
Statistically speaking, Phil Hughes has the largest home-run problem in the major leagues. After giving up four bombs to the Atlanta Braves on Wednesday afternoon, Hughes has allowed 19 homers this season, or 2.2 per nine innings.
That’s a lot of home runs, and he’s lucky that his ERA still hovers just before 5 (4.94).
But of course Hughes is unlucky to have allowed 19 home runs in 78 innings. Any pitcher (except me) would be. Before this season, Hughes had given up home runs on roughly nine percent of all fly balls. This season he’s given up homers on nearly 14 percent of fly balls.
Now, some of you are already protesting ... He’s making fatter pitches this season, which is why the batters are hitting them farther!
Well, maybe. But we’re talking about 10 “extra” home runs. Yes, that’s actually a lot. So many, in fact, that we might hesitate before ascribing them to poor luck. But what if we say five or six have been unlucky? That leaves only four or five that might be attributed to “extra” bad pitching. And I wouldn’t be overly concerned about four or five extra bad pitches.
Oh, and by the way Hughes currently sports the best strikeout-to-walk ratio (3.85) of his career. That’s not just good for Hughes; that’s good for almost any starting pitcher. If nothing else, it’s something to work with. If Hughes is giving up too many home runs, he might trade a few home runs for a few walks.
Or not. He’ll probably be just fine when the fly balls stop carrying quite as far as they’ve been.
With all that said, Hughes would almost certainly benefit from a change of scenery.
The next numbers are so surprising that I’m going to tell you that they’re so surprising, so you’ll really pay attention ...
In his career, Phil Hughes has given up 22 home runs in road games and 50 home runs in home games.
His strikeouts and walks are almost identical, home and away. But because of that vast difference in home runs, Hughes’ ERA at home is roughly a run higher than on the road.
Doesn't mean he's a lousy pitcher, or doesn't have the guts to pitch for the Yankees. It simply means he's a right-handed fly-ball pitcher, and right-handed fly-ball pitchers really aren't suited to Yankee Stadium and it's cozy right-field dimensions.
Phil Hughes is a talented pitcher. But if he’s going to become a star, it might have be somewhere else.
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