Rangers, Yankees, Rays Show As World Series Favorites

The new World Series odds are here! The new World Series odds are here!

Not a lot of surprises, really -- maybe they shouldn’t be called “odds”, since they’re not -- but I think maybe we’re just a bit overly bullish about the Texas Rangers, yeah?

You guys all know that’s crazy, right? The Rangers, I mean?

Here are two really obvious reasons why the Rangers don’t have a 20-percent chance of winning the World Series.

1. Once they reach the postseason tournament, they won’t have a 20-percent chance of winning the thing, and

2. There is a non-zero chance that they won’t reach the postseason tournament at all.

But their edge in the standings isn’t massive: only 4½ games.

If the Rangers win the West, they’ll begin postseason play among eight teams, with two Wild Cards already having been knocked out. You would probably give them a better than 1-in-8 chance of winning the World Series, because they’ll likely be better than at least one of the surviving American League teams, and probably a touch better than whoever comes out of the National League.

But not 1 in 5. Somewhere between 1 in 6 and 1 in 7.

And that assumes they win the West. According to Baseball Prospectus’s Playoff Odds, there’s a 9-percent chance the Rangers don’t win the West, along with a 5-percent chance they’re a Wild Card and a 3.5-percent chance they don’t qualify at all. Throw those percents into the hopper, and I’m guessing their chance of actually winning the World Series is slightly worse than 1 in 7.

So if you can get anyone to give you the field against the Rangers at 1 to 5, you should take it.

Which is pretty much all I have to say about this. Except for one more thing: Your Detroit Tigers have taken a big tumble. Just before spring training, they were 8 to 1 to win the World Series, presumably on the strength of their excellent chance of winning the American League Central; perhaps no team seemed like a better bet to actually reach the postseason. And if you’re one of those final eight teams, your chance of winning it all isn’t much worse (or better) than 8 to 1.

Except now the Tigers are six games out of first place. They’ve been outscored by the Mariners. BP gives them a 19-percent chance of coming back to win the Central, and a 14-percent chance of grabbing one of the Wild Card slots. Now they’re supposedly a 14-to-1 shot to win the World Series, sixth best in the majors. Which is still too high. Because they’re really just not that good.

You can find all the World Series odds here, by scrolling down. Who do you think will win the World Series, and why? Please vote in the poll, then explain away in the comments ...