The Tigers were supposed to mash their way to victory in 2012, supported by Justin Verlander and a rotation that was solid, but not great. They had to mash, in fact, as the defense was going to be a problem, given the plodding sluggers wearing gloves all over the diamond. Things haven't worked out that way -- except for the defense failing, anyway -- as the Tigers are in the middle of the pack in both runs scored and total offensive production.
Austin Jackson: Key To The Tigers’ Season
The Tigers haven’t hit as well as expected, but that’s not Austin Jackson’s fault.
It's not that their great hitters haven't been doing well-- Miguel Cabrera (154 OPS+) and Prince Fielder (143) have been tearing it up as expected -- but the support just hasn't been there. Alex Avila has been good, not great, as has Jhonny Peralta. Other than that, though, the lineup has been full of holes, with Ryan Raburn (.146/.209/.211), Brennan Boesch (.227/.259/.343), and Delmon Young (.261/.300/.383) doing their best to negate the team's offensive progress. Andy Dirks has done his best to counter that, but he's but one man, and not exactly one with a storied history of slugging over .500.
That's why it's key that Austin Jackson, possibly returning from the disabled list this weekend, continues his breakout campaign. Without Jackson, and with all of these inconsistent (and currently scuffling) hitters in the lineup, Detroit's had its issues -- that's why there's been all the talk about possibly firing someone in the organization, or demoting one player or another for their failures. Detroit sits in third place in the AL Central, under .500 and six games back of the White Sox, heading into action on Friday. They weren't in the best position when Jackson last saw action, but three games back at 18-19 beats their current placement.
Jackson was a highly touted prospect, rated in the top 100 by Baseball America three straight seasons from 2008-2010, before heading to Detroit in the three-way trade that sent, among others, Curtis Granderson to New York and Ian Kennedy to Arizona. His minor-league numbers were never eye-popping, but he was 22 and successful in Triple-A in 2009 -- there's a lot to like about a player that young and that successful at the minor's most advanced stop.
In his rookie campaign, Jackson hit .293/.345/.400 with 27 steals and 48 extra-base hits -- including 10 triples -- in 675 plate appearances. It wasn't the greatest freshman season ever, but for a 23-year-old in his first taste of the bigs, it had its merits. It also had its problems: Jackson struck out a league-leading 170 times, a problem when you don't hit homers or draw walks like Adam Dunn, and it was propped up in part by a .396 batting average on balls in play.
Jackson had always been someone with loftier-than-average BABIP, due to his impressive speed and a swing that gave him both grounders to beat out and liners in the gaps. But with his high-strikeout rate, any time the balls didn’t fall in where he needed them to, or he didn’t beat the throw to first by a step, there were going to be problems. That’s where 2011 comes in, when Jackson struck out even more often -- 181 times in seven fewer chances -- and hit just .249/.317/.374 thanks to “only” posting a .340 BABIP.
Without the ability to always depend on a near-.400 BABIP, Jackson was going to need to cut down on his strikeouts. It was the only way to bring some more cushion to his batting average, or else Jackson was going to jump back-and-forth between average and awful at the plate, depending on how luck was feeling in a particular year.
To start the 2012 campaign, that's just what Jackson's been doing: he's whiffed just 29 times in 159 plate appearances, down from 27 percent last year to 18 percent. While the year isn't close to over, according to Russell Carlton's research (formerly of Baseball Prospectus, currently with the Cleveland Indians), after 150 plate appearances you can start to trust a strikeout rate. Jackson might not stick at 18 percent all season, but if he's closer to there than his past going forward, he's going to have an easier time staying productive.
It takes longer for walk rates to stabilize in the same way, but Jackson’s off to a good start in that regard, too: He’s drawing free passes over 12 percent of the time, compared to 7.6 rate he posted from 2011-2012. Waiting for his pitch rather than chasing helps him in two ways, as he becomes less prone to strikeout, and he can be on base more often, even when balls he makes contact with don’t find the gaps.
He’s also starting to hit for power, though you have to keep in mind that it takes Isolated Power and slugging nearly an entire season to stabilize. An increase in power is a natural outcome of a more patient and disciplined approach, though, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility that the 25-year-old Jackson is finally coming into his own all at once. With two strikes, Jackson’s split-adjusted OPS+ is 148. Ahead in the count, 218. With three balls, 198. These are all massive jumps from his past, when he was little better (or worse) than average in all of these areas. While it might be short-term cause/effect, the pieces do fit together snugly.
All of this -- and, it should be noted, a .388 BABIP -- has led Jackson to the team lead in OPS+. It’s no wonder they’ve missed his bat atop the order.
Not nearly enough season has gone by to take Jackson at face value, but the signs are all pointing in the right direction. When he comes back, the Tigers will be a more dangerous team, closer to what was expected of them than what’s actually been accomplished. If Jackson can continue to evolve his game to have less swing-and-miss, more patience, and more pop, then it’ll be easier to forget about where the team stands without him.
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