When people talk about pitchers who have dominated the National League in 2012, the names R.A. Dickey, Stephen Strasburg, Matt Cain and Rookie of the Year candidate Wade Miley have been the first ones put up for discussion.
Johnny Cueto: Under-The-Radar Superstar
The Reds’ righthander is putting together a Cy Young-quality season. Will fans and media outside Cincinnati ever take notice?
Early on, few mentioned the Reds' Johnny Cueto, who didn't make the All-Star team. But Cueto is currently leading the league in ERA and that antique statistic known as "wins". He's scheduled to start Thursday night for the Reds in Philadelphia, going for Win No. 17. Cueto is beginning to get a bit of attention in the Cy Young race; this FanGraphs article and the folks at Hardball Talk have started to get a drumbeat going for his chances.
Cueto has steadily improved since he first became a rotation starter in 2008; his ERA dropped each season through 2011 (and is barely higher in 2012) and his ERA+ numbers rose accordingly, to a now-league-leading figure of 174. He ranks third in the NL in Baseball-Reference’s version of Wins Above Replacement at 5.4, and fifth in the FanGraphs WAR variety (4.3).
After missing a fair chunk of 2011 with shoulder and neck issues, Cueto has been totally healthy this season, and has been consistent all year; he’s gone at least seven innings in 18 of his 25 starts, and has just two that could be classified as bad outings. How has he done this? Chad Dotson of ESPN’s Sweet Spot explains:
Over the past two seasons, Cueto has relied upon his changeup more often, with great success. In the minors, former Reds ace Mario Soto taught Cueto the changeup, but in his first couple of big league seasons, Cueto really didn’t throw it very often, just 6.7 percent of the time during his rookie season. This year, Cueto is throwing the change 17.9 percent of the time, and he’s throwing it consistently for strikes.
Before last season, Cueto adopted a funky delivery, wherein he actually turns his back to the hitter during the windup. Pitching coach Bryan Price had detected a flaw in Cueto’s delivery in which his front leg would open up before he set it down. They began working together to correct that, and Cueto immediately enjoyed the deception that his new delivery provided. Plus, it’s just flat-out fun to watch.
That changeup, along with the delivery, likely account for his excellent 1.96 walks-per-nine-innings ratio. All of these numbers should put Cueto near or at the top of the list when Cy Young voters consider their ballots; the Reds’ pitching has been one of the biggest reasons the team is running away with the NL Central this season.
With the Reds cruising toward that postseason berth, you’ll see Cueto quite a bit in October. Before that, though, he might just pitch well enough to take home some regular-season hardware.
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