FanDuel: The wisdom (?) of taking a zero

One of the War Room regulars anguished last week over his tight end situation. He had Travis Kelce (if I recall) on a bye, and couldn't work out a fill-in. His problem, as he told me, was that there weren't any special tight ends on the wire, and so he would have to drop a WR/RB he really wanted to stash just for an unexciting TE fill-in.

• You win, which you would have done even with a waiver pickup;
• You lose, but you would have lost even if you had picked someone up;
• You lose, but by a small enough margin that a waiver pickup would have made the difference.

In FanDuel, that can theoretically mean buying up the absolute top guy at every position. This week, if you paid for the single top guy at each position, you would spend $48,100 on six positions, leaving you with $10,900 for your second running back and second and third wide receivers. That's $3,600 a player, which ... well, crap, players don't go for less than $4,500.

Which means, if you feel great about Peyton Manning, DeMarco Murray, Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas, Dan Bailey and the Cardinals defense (the top guys at each spot), you'd have to run with at least one empty position. And that would be stupid. At least, I think it would. On the flip side, if Manning hits each Thomas boy with two touchdowns, Arizona shuts down Oakland, and Murray keeps up his ridiculous pace, giving Bailey plenty of kicking chances, that team can win. I can't tell you you can't make that roster. I'm just telling you it really reduces your room for error, and in general, you want as much room for error as you can find.

• I don't always love investing in the top-top quarterbacks, because their price point gets so crazy that it can hamstring the rest of the roster. But Peyton Manning ($10,000) gets a San Francisco defense this week that has been absolutely ravaged by injury; this might be a good time to toss a big chunk of your salary his way.
• Among all quarterbacks, Tony Romo ($8,000) is 12^th in fantasy scoring per game, at 15.5. Take out his Week 1, and he's 10^th, at 16.8. Take out Weeks 1 and 2, and he's seventh. Dude was coming back from surgery, and wasn't at his best to start the season, but he's been really strong sense. I have no issue using him.
• I'm not saying I'm buying the long-term value of Derek Carr ($6,800). He wasn't special before the team's week 5 bye. But a new coach and a week off led to a four-touchdown game against a San Diego defense that had been really strong up to that point. Another week with that coach, and an Arizona defense that has been dealing with injury, could lead to another good game.

• Eventually, I'll stop talking about this. But last week, the Falcons played their last home game until Week 12. That's a huge chunk of not in Atlanta time for Matt Ryan ($8,600), starting Sunday at Baltimore. Add in his hideously injured offensive line, and I don't see Ryan being a smart investment any time soon.
• I spent much of the preseason saying that Ryan Fitzpatrick ($6,300) would occasionally have a big game -- his career suggests it's a desert of sub-mediocrity with intermittent oases of success -- but I'm done waiting. Even with a group of weapons such as Arian Foster, Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins, Fitzpatrick has averaged only 11.5 fantasy points a game, and has only scored more than 13 once.

• The Carolina Panthers have allowed double-digit points to running backs every game this season, including big outings to the Pittsburgh running backs, the Baltimore running backs, the Cincinnati running backs and the Chicago running backs (that last one just means Matt Forte). This time, the opponent is Eddie Lacy ($7,700), and I'm giving him one last chance to not disappoint me.
• Even in their most successful game of the season last week, the Raiders gave up a lot of points to opposing running back Branden Oliver. And Andre Ellington ($7,100) is better than Branden Oliver.
• Remember that whole, "Atlanta on the road thing"? On top of that, they don't stop running backs, like, at all. I mentioned this in Friday's piece, but Justin Forsett ($6,200) should be in every dang lineup.

• I mean, this is cheating. Ben Tate ($7,300) isn't in a bad situation, per se. But while he has the definite positive of playing against the Jaguars in a run-heavy offense, Tate will play Sunday without Alex Mack, the stellar Cleveland center, and I can't help but wonder if Mack's absence hurts that Cleveland running game. I like Tate, but I don't think he's a pillar around which to build a weekly roster.
• Jerick McKinnon ($5,900) is going to be a really good running back. The Vikings have something. But this week, the team has already said it wants to re-give Matt Asiata some more touches, for whatever little that's worth. Also, their opponent, the Bills, are particularly unkind to running backs. This isn't the week.

• It's not like the Dolphins have a lot of weapons. Brian Hartline and Charles Clay have done nothing. Jarvis Landry is interesting, but unproven. Knowshon Moreno's done. And if Lamar Miller was that great, they wouldn't have signed Moreno to begin with. That's why Mike Wallace ($7,000) has been so good, and it should continue.
• He's been dealing with concussion symptoms this week, but as of now, it looks like Kelvin Benjamin ($6,700) will be good to go for Sunday's game against the injury-riddled Green Bay pass defense. Assuming Benjamin is on the field -- and I expect him to be -- he's a great pickup.
• Whatever, this is an easy one. But I expect Doug Baldwin ($4,800) to spend the rest of the year as Seattle's No. 1 receiver. He might not be a superstar, but for that price, he doesn't have to be one to be worth it.

• Even after Andre Johnson's big game in Week 6, the Colts have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers, including quiet games from the Denver, Philadelphia and Baltimore units. Mohamed Sanu ($7,200) is interesting with all the other Cincinnati injuries, but I think he could struggle this week.
• It's not as if Victor Cruz waited until late in Sunday's game to get hurt last week. He went out fairly early. Even with that, Odell Beckham Jr. ($6,200) was only targeted four times in the game. Sure, that could change, and I do like the rookie's season-long value, but I want to see something more before I invest.

• I've always been reasonably against Jordan Reed ($5,400) as a season-long value, because he is a perpetual injury risk. But for a one-week play, with no long-term investment, he makes far more sense. Any week Reed is on the field and off the injury report, he's a totally fair buy-in.
• Jimmy Graham is the lead New Orleans tight end, obviously. He's the lead "anyone" tight end. With him out, the targets have to go somewhere. Brandin Cooks, Marques Colston and the running backs will get some of them. But Josh Hill ($5,000) will get some as well, and he has more than seven fantasy points a game over the last three. For that price, he's intriguing.

• Martellus Bennett ($6,000) has a history of strong starts and cooling off. But that's a soft factor that could easily be more noise than signal. The opposite of that is the fact that his offensive compatriots --Alshon Jeffery, Brandon Marshall, Matt Forte -- all appear to be fully healthy now, and that means Bennett won't be the primary focus, or even close to it.

• We're hard-wired to see a team going against New Orleans and think, "Uh oh, avoid that defense." But without Graham and with the game on the road, it's not the greatest version of the Saints offense, and that offense hasn't been anything special this year anyway. I have no issue with using the Lions ($5,300).
• Teddy Bridgewater and the Vikings were basically awful last week against Detroit. The defense of the Bills ($5,000) isn't quite as good as Detroit's, but it's a poor man's version of same, and makes sense as a Week 7 investment.

• Only the Broncos have allowed fewer points to opposing defenses than the Chargers, who have forced three of the six defenses they've faced into negative scoring. The Chiefs ($4,900), even off a bye, are far too scary to consider.