We enter Week 14 with almost nothing settled. We know Florida State and Georgia Tech will play in the ACC title. We know Ohio State, Marshall, Bowling Green and Oregon have reached their respective conference championships. We know Will Muschamp will coach his final game for Florida on Saturday.
Here’s everything at stake in college football’s Rivalry Weekend
A viewer’s guide to the whats, whens, whys and hows of college football’s Rivalry Week, from TCU-Texas on Thursday to the Apple Cup on Saturday night.
That’s pretty much it.
This begins to change on Thanksgiving night. Over a 54-hour span, we will learn every division winner, and the title races will all take on stark levels of clarity.
Thursday
Note: complete F/+ picks and probabilities for the week will be posted Wednesday at Football Study Hall. Perhaps because this is rivalry week, every Win Probability feels wrong and scary, starting with the very first one.
No. 5 TCU at Texas (7:30 p.m. ET, FS1)
Stakes: TCU's spot in the national title race hangs in the balance. Plus, since they're kicking off at the same time, it kind of feels like Texas and Texas A&M are playing each other!
F/+ ranking: TCU fifth, Texas 55th
F/+ Win Probability: TCU 91%
Biggest Question: Which TCU shows up? Since losing via a last-second field goal at Baylor, the Horned Frogs have pasted Oklahoma State and Texas Tech by a combined 124-36, held off West Virginia with their own last-second field goal, walloped a good Kansas State, and nearly lost to lowly Kansas. Their road form has not been sterling in their last two trips out of town, and it will need to be pretty good Thursday night.
Texas has its own list of problems. TCU’s win probability is at 91 percent because only one team in this game has been good on offense or defense for a majority of the season. But the Longhorns have won three games in a row to become bowl eligible and seem to have taken a step forward.
Good TCU is far better than Good Texas, but is Good TCU in the building?
LSU at Texas A&M (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Stakes: Pride? Budding rivalry? A ratings war with the school in Austin?
F/+ ranking: LSU 14th, A&M 47th
F/+ Win Probability: LSU 80%
Biggest Question: Who moves the ball? LSU's defense is magnificent, and Texas A&M's offense is inconsistent. A&M's defense is banged up and abysmal, and in the last two games, LSU's offense has gained a total of 382 yards and scored 13 points. LSU has the numbers edge because its defense is so good and A&M's is so bad, but there's no guarantee that the Tigers will be able to move the ball.
Friday, Shift 1
Northern Illinois at Western Michigan (11 a.m. ET, ESPNU)
Stakes: The MAC West title. There's a three-way tie between NIU, WMU, and Toledo at 6-1. Toledo will almost certainly beat Eastern Michigan in Ypsilanti at 1 p.m. ET (ESPN3), so this game is likely to determine whether NIU (with a win) faces Bowling Green in the conference title, or whether Toledo (with a WMU win) makes the trip. And if the Rockets indeed get upset by EMU, WMU could represent with a win.
F/+ ranking: WMU 44th, NIU 85th
F/+ Win Probability: WMU 87%
Biggest Question: Are the young Broncos ready? P.J. Fleck's WMU has looked spectacular, winning at Ball State and Bowling Green; whipping Ohio, Miami (Ohio), and EMU; and surviving Central Michigan on the road last week. They are 8-3 and only fell to Toledo, 20-19, because of a missed PAT. But division titles are NIU's domain.
We have to assume the Huskies show up. Will WMU clam up in its biggest game in years?
Nebraska at Iowa (12 p.m. ET, ABC)
Stakes: Bo Pelini's job (maybe) and something called the Heroes Trophy.
F/+ ranking: Nebraska 25th, Iowa 50th
F/+ Win Probability: Nebraska 72%
Biggest Question: Do the Huskers rebound? Two weeks ago, Nebraska was a dark horse title contender; the 8-1 Huskers were bucking the four-loss trend that has defined the Pelini era, and they looked like the best team in the Big Ten West. Then Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon rushed for 408 yards on them. Then seemingly half the team got injured in a late home loss to Minnesota.
Now the four-loss season seems to be a self-fulfilling prophecy. Through 11 games, Nebraska has been a better team than Iowa. But Iowa is the more known quantity.
Western Kentucky at No. 24 Marshall (12 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1)
Stakes: Marshall's undefeated season. That's about it, but it's something. While the Playoff committee rather obnoxiously shunned Marshall until Tuesday night, the Thundering Herd have still been the best team in the mid-major universe, and they could still score the non-power major bowl slot by winning out, though a Boise State loss would help.
F/+ ranking: Marshall 19th, WKU 76th
F/+ Win Probability: Marshall 96%
Biggest Question: Can WKU pass? The Hilltoppers do one thing well, and it could make them a dangerous underdog. Quarterback Brandon Doughty has thrown for 3,853 yards, 36 touchdowns, and eight picks, and WKU has won four of five mostly because of this. But he was shut down by Louisiana Tech's defense in a 59-10 loss on Nov. 1, and Marshall's pass defense might be even better. If this turns into a shootout, WKU has a shot, but can Doughty make that happen?
Arkansas at No. 18 Missouri (2:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
Stakes: Missouri takes its second straight SEC East title with a win over the Hogs. Arkansas, meanwhile, claims the "hottest team in the conference" mantel with a road win.
F/+ ranking: Arkansas 22nd, Missouri 33rd
F/+ Win Probability: Arkansas 62%
Biggest Question: Who scores? Missouri's defense ranks 15th in Def. F/+ and features what might be the nastiest defensive line in the SEC (Ole Miss seems to be relinquishing its claim). Arkansas' defense ranks 16th and hasn't allowed a point since Nov. 1.
The Tigers' offense has shown signs of life over the last two weeks, but can they move the ball in a way that LSU and Ole Miss could not? And can the Hogs push around a defense that ranks ninth in Rushing S&P+? If not, either an injured quarterback (Brandon Allen) or a young one (Austin Allen) will have to make plays in the face of a fierce pass rush.
Friday, Shift 2
Stanford at No. 8 UCLA (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
Stakes: The Pac-12 South title is UCLA's with a win.
F/+ ranking: UCLA 15th, Stanford 36th
F/+ Win Probability: UCLA 81%
Biggest Question: Does the hot streak continue for UCLA's offense? Stanford's defense is still excellent, and if the Bruins fall into an offensive funk like they did against Virginia, Texas, and (to a degree) Arizona, the Cardinal could stick around. But only one of those three iffy UCLA performances happened in the last two months. The Bruins have averaged 37 points per game and 6.4 yards per play since Texas, and if they get above 28 points, Stanford will be hard pressed to keep up.
No. 13 Arizona State at No. 11 Arizona (3:30 p.m. ET, Fox)
Stakes: The Territorial Cup, for starters. Arizona-ASU is, by one measure, the most intense rivalry in college football, so you don't need stakes beyond that. But if UCLA loses to Stanford, this game decides the Pac-12 South winner.
F/+ ranking: ASU 23rd, Arizona 29th
F/+ Win Probability: Arizona State 58%
Biggest Question: Can Anu go? Arizona quarterback Anu Solomon left last week's win over Utah with an ankle injury, and Rich Rodriguez wasn't clear on whether he would be healed enough to play. Backup Jesse Scroggins III was good enough against the Utes, but in an otherwise even matchup, any dropoff could be a deciding factor.
Colorado State at Air Force (3:30 p.m. ET, CBSSN)
Stakes: At 10-1, Colorado State is still positioning itself in the battle for the non-power bowl bid. And if Boise State loses to Utah State late Saturday, a CSU win would give the Rams the MWC Mountain title.
F/+ ranking: CSU 30th, Air Force 52nd
F/+ Win Probability: Colorado State 88%
Biggest Question: Can the Falcons move the football? Air Force has had an unexpected renaissance; the Falcons are 8-3 thanks to an unforeseen defensive surge. And they're in an interesting spot: the one thing they can't really do is run the ball. Air Force!
Can Jacobi Owens and company grind out enough yardage on the ground to set up Kale Pearson for some downfield passing? CSU's offense is too good not to score; the Falcons have to keep up.
Underdogs Poll
Friday, Shift 3
Virginia at Virginia Tech (8 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Stakes: Both stand at 5-6, so only one will be going bowling.
F/+ ranking: Virginia Tech 32nd, Virginia 35th
F/+ Win Probability: Virginia Tech 66%
Biggest Question: Duh, who scores? Virginia Tech has had one of its strangest seasons ever; the Hokies beat Ohio State and took down an 8-1 Duke team in Durham. They've also lost four of five at home and just played in the worst football game of 2014, a double-overtime, 6-3 loss at Wake Forest. But that defense is still pretty stiff. The Hokies rank third in Def. F/+, while Virginia ranks a healthy 14th in the same category. The offenses: 93rd and 58th, respectively, in Off. F/+.
Saturday, Shift 1
No. 16 Georgia Tech at No. 9 Georgia (12 p.m. ET, SEC Network)
Stakes: Along with UCLA, Georgia is the two-loss team best-positioned to benefit from chaos. If the Dawgs reach the SEC title game (with help from Arkansas) and beat either Alabama or Mississippi State, they will have an interesting case. That said, those hopes are done when this game kicks off if Missouri beats Arkansas. And without that, this is simply a rivalry between two really good teams. Pity.
F/+ ranking: Georgia sixth, Georgia Tech 12th
F/+ Win Probability: Georgia 73%
Biggest Question: What have you got, Dawg defense? The Jackets run as frequently as ever, but a) they're ridiculously good at it, and b) quarterback Justin Thomas has been tremendous at keeping defenses off balance with the pass. Georgia got rolled up by Florida's run game, then dominated Auburn's. Do the Dawgs have a read on the Paul Johnson option game? We know Georgia will move the ball, but Tech ranks No. 1 in Off. F/+. That's how good the Jackets' run game has been.
South Carolina at No. 21 Clemson (12 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Stakes: It's Steve Spurrier vs. Dabo Swinney. Those are all the stakes you need. And that's good because that's all we've got.
F/+ ranking: Clemson 20th, South Carolina 48th
F/+ Win Probability: Clemson 86%
Biggest Question: What happens when a movable Clemson offense faces a resistible South Carolina defense? Ace freshman quarterback Deshaun Watson is questionable for Clemson, and without Watson, this offense doesn't have much to offer. But the Gamecocks' defense ranks a rather amazing 112th in Def. F/+; it has even less to offer.
Clemson's defense is nasty, and South Carolina won't score much. Is the Gamecocks' defense a perfect antidote for an offense led by Cole Stoudt?
Kentucky at No. 22 Louisville (12 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
Stakes: It's the Governor's Cup! That's something, right? And Kentucky needs a win to reach bowl eligibility and avoid finishing the year on a six-game losing streak.
F/+ ranking: Louisville 16th, Kentucky 81st
F/+ Win Probability: Louisville 97%
Biggest Question: What do the Wildcats have left? Since scoring 31 points in a loss to Mississippi State, Kentucky has fallen to Missouri (20-10) then gotten its doors blown off by Georgia and Tennessee (combined: 113-47). The UK offense has averaged better than 4.5 yards per play just once during its five-game losing streak, and Louisville's got one of the most efficient defenses in the country. Does Mark Stoops' team have surprises left, or is this season ending with a whimper?
Michigan at No. 6 Ohio State (12 p.m. ET, ABC)
Stakes: Ohio State probably needs to not only win, but win big, to maintain its shot at a Playoff bid. Michigan needs to win to save Brady Hoke's job. Okay, Hoke's job is probably done either way.
F/+ ranking: Ohio State third, Michigan 59th
F/+ Win Probability: Ohio State 97%
Biggest Question: Can Michigan force J.T. Barrett to pass? Ohio State has perhaps the most efficient offense in the country, powered by an outstanding run game. But Michigan's defense ranks eighth in Rushing S&P+; the Wolverines have given up more than 170 rushing yards just twice all year.
Barrett has been quite a passer since the Virginia Tech debacle in September, but his arm is still more questionable than his legs, and he does have three interceptions in the last two games. The Wolverines’ only hope is to force mistakes from Barrett ... and hope they return a couple of picks for touchdowns. Otherwise, they simply aren’t scoring enough.
Rice at Louisiana Tech (12 p.m. ET, CBSSN)
Stakes: The Conference USA West title. Winner plays Marshall next week.
F/+ ranking: La. Tech 62nd, Rice 89th
F/+ Win Probability: Louisiana Tech 83%
Biggest Question: Louisiana Tech ranks 41st in Def. F/+ under first-year defensive coordinator Manny Diaz. The Bulldogs are all sorts of aggressive and efficient, and they will put pressure on a Rice offense that wants to run but isn't very good at it. Rice quarterback Driphus Jackson has thrown for at least 200 yards in six of the last seven games, which has stretched defenses out just enough to find run crevices here and there. But can he avoid mistakes against a defense that is great at forcing them?
Illinois at Northwestern (12 p.m. ET, ESPNU)
Stakes: Illinois is 5-6. Northwestern is 5-6. Illinois coach Tim Beckman's job is on the line.
F/+ ranking: Northwestern 63rd, Illinois 80th
F/+ Win Probability: Northwestern 78%
Biggest Question: How does Northwestern cope without Trevor Siemian? The senior quarterback suffered a torn ACL against Purdue on Saturday, which is a damn shame because the NU offense was actually starting to figure things out. After averaging 12.5 points per game and 3.7 yards per play in four previous games, the Wildcats scored 43 and averaged 5.7 against Notre Dame two weeks ago, then scored touchdowns on two of their first four possessions against Purdue. They scored a couple more times with Zack Oliver behind center, but can they continue a nice rhythm and keep Illinois from an upset?
Saturday, Shift 2
Now things really pick up.
No. 4 Mississippi State at No. 19 Ole Miss (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
Stakes: MSU can bolster its Playoff résumé with a win, and if the Bulldogs win and Auburn beats Alabama later, MSU is your SEC West champion.
F/+ ranking: MSU fourth, Ole Miss ninth
F/+ Win Probability: Ole Miss 57%
Biggest Question: What does poor Ole Miss have left? It appeared we were headed for the biggest Egg Bowl ever a few weeks ago, when both were cruising undefeated. It's still huge -- it's quite rare for even one of these two teams to head into this game with title aspirations -- but Ole Miss has been reduced to playing spoiler. The Rebels looked damaged and sad against Arkansas and suffered a 30-0 loss, their third straight in conference play. They are still athletic and talented, perhaps more than MSU, but confidence matters, and only one team seems to have it.
Florida at No. 3 Florida State (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Stakes: Florida State needs to win two more games to reach the Playoff. Florida is trying to pull a mammoth upset in Muschamp's final game.
F/+ ranking: FSU seventh, Florida 41st
F/+ Win Probability: Florida State 92%
Biggest Question: Is this the week FSU actually puts a game away? The Seminoles don't seem capable of outmanning their opponents; they're drama junkies. The Gators can run the ball (sometimes) and force turnovers and could very well hang around into the fourth quarter if FSU lets them. The 'Noles seem accommodating in that regard, so for all we know, this will play out like FSU's recent wins against Notre Dame, Louisville, Miami and BC. But ... surely not, right?
Seminoles Know Their Role
No. 7 Baylor vs. Texas Tech (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN2)
Stakes: Baylor needs style points to keep up in the Playoff race.
F/+ ranking: Baylor 10th, Tech 82nd
F/+ Win Probability: Baylor 97%
Biggest Question: How long can Tech keep up? The Red Raiders have crept back into the Off. F/+ top 50 after averaging at least 6.3 yards per play in five of their last six games. They averaged 8.0 against Iowa State, their second-best of the season, on Saturday.
Of course, Baylor’s not ISU. The Bears are aggressive, fast, and 10th in Def. F/+. Baylor’s going to score on Tech’s awful defense.
No. 18 Minnesota at No. 14 Wisconsin (3:30 p.m. ET, BTN)
Stakes: Winner takes the Big Ten West title. And a giant axe.
F/+ ranking: Wisconsin 13th, Minnesota 31st
F/+ Win Probability: Wisconsin 80%
Biggest Question: What can Minnesota do that Purdue, Nebraska, and Iowa didn't? Wisconsin can't throw very well, and while the Badgers' defense closes drives, they aren't elite against run or pass. They are a beatable team.
But they haven’t been beaten since Oct. 4 because nobody has been able to stop them from doing what they really like to do: run. Melvin Gordon has rushed for at least 122 yards in 10 of 11 games, and he has rushed 81 times for 813 yards and seven scores in the last three. The Badgers are chewing up defenses like a tractor; is Minnesota capable of either slowing Gordon down or scoring enough that it doesn’t matter?
Best since Barry Sanders?
No. 10 Michigan State at Penn State (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN2)
Stakes: The Land Grant Trophy ... and that's about it.
F/+ ranking: MSU 18th, PSU 49th
F/+ Win Probability: Michigan State 76%
Biggest Question: How does Penn State score? The Nittany Lions rank ninth in Def. F/+ and 101st in Off. F/+. They are an extreme version of Virginia Tech, if that's possible. And their defense is laboring with no return. Michigan State still dominates bad offenses, so ... yeah. You probably don't need to check on this one.
Notre Dame at USC (3:30 p.m. ET, Fox)
Stakes: Pride!
F/+ ranking: Notre Dame 24th, USC 27th
F/+ Win Probability: USC 57%
Biggest Question: Who stops the bleeding? Three weeks ago, Notre Dame was seen as a title contender, with a 7-1 record and the lone loss coming at Florida State. That was three losses ago. The offense can't get out of its own way, and the defense has almost slipped out of the Def. F/+ top 40.
USC, meanwhile, had UCLA tied at 14-14 midway through the second quarter last week, then allowed 24 straight and got eliminated from the Pac-12 South race. Notre Dame was better than USC earlier in the year and has been worse in recent weeks; is that enough to give the Trojans the edge?
Kansas at No. 12 Kansas State (4 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1)
Stakes: Kansas State's minimal Big 12 title hopes. Interim Kansas coach Clint Bowen's odds of getting the job full-time.
F/+ ranking: K-State 21st, Kansas 101st
F/+ Win Probability: Kansas State 98%
Biggest Question: How does Kansas move the ball? Despite that whole "giving up a single-game rushing record to Oklahoma's Samaje Perine last week" thing, Kansas' defense isn't the reason the Jayhawks are 3-8 and 101st in the F/+ rankings. They still rank a decent 54th in Def. F/+. If KSU receiver Tyler Lockett isn't playing at a super-human level again, it's conceivable to see KU slowing the Wildcats down. KSU doesn't have anything resembling a Samaje Perine.
But KU still has to score. And on paper, KSU’s defense is better than the OU defense that just held the Jayhawks to 103 yards and seven points.
UConn at Memphis (4 p.m. ET, ESPN News)
Stakes: Memphis can clinch a share of the AAC title. The Tigers would be 7-1, and while UCF and Cincinnati could also finish with that record, Memphis destroyed Cincinnati and doesn't play UCF.
F/+ ranking: Memphis 40th, UConn 103rd
F/+ Win Probability: Memphis 95%
Biggest Question: Can the Tigers play up to the moment? Only twice in its 55-year FBS history has Memphis finished with nine wins: 1963 and 2003. Hell, the Tigers won only 12 games from 2009-13. Justin Fuente has executed an incredible turnaround, and Memphis is a much better team than UConn. If the Tigers play like the top-40 team they've been all year, they win handily.
Tennessee at Vanderbilt (4 p.m. ET, SEC Network)
Stakes: Tennessee needs one more win to reach bowl eligibility for the first time since 2010, when current Vol commits were in eighth grade.
F/+ ranking: Tennessee 39th, Vandy 112th
F/+ Win Probability: Tennessee 92%
Biggest Question: Does Tennessee's bus arrive at the stadium? A 1-3 record in one-possession games has held the young Vols back, but Vanderbilt hasn't stayed within 10 points of a single major-conference opponent (or Temple) this year. Show up, play well (in front of a crowd that might favor UT), go bowling.
BYU at California (4:30 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Network)
Stakes: After going 1-11 a year ago in Sonny Dykes' first season, California has pulled off impressive improvement. But the Bears have lost five of six since a 4-1 start and need this one to reach bowl eligibility.
F/+ ranking: BYU 42nd, California 56th
F/+ Win Probability: BYU 59%
Biggest Question: Can Cal stop Christian Stewart?
BYU didn’t handle quarterback Taysom Hill’s injury very well at first. The junior was injured against Utah State on Oct. 3, and the Cougars proceeded to lose four consecutive games. Granted, defense was the driving force in those losses (BYU scored 30 or more in two of those losses but allowed 31 or more in all four), but the D has rebounded, and Stewart, Hill’s backup, has begun to thrive. He has completed 62 percent of his passes for 1,504 yards, 14 touchdowns and just one pick in the last five games. By the way, the Cal defense ranks 114th in Passing S&P+.
Cal will score. BYU might score more.
Saturday, Shift 3
Pitt at Miami (7 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
Stakes: After a 3-0 start, Pitt lost six of seven (four by five or fewer points) before last week's win over Syracuse. The Panthers still need one more win to avoid "best team with a losing record" honors in 2014. Miami already has the dubious "best five-loss team in the country" award stashed away; the Hurricanes are looking to avoid loss number six.
F/+ ranking: Miami 17th, Pitt 45th
F/+ Win Probability: Miami 85%
Biggest Question: What the hell, Miami? I defend you as an underrated team, one ready to make a lot of noise in 2015, and you reward me by losing 30-13 to Virginia? Really? You going to lose this too, just to rub more salt in the wound?
Wake Forest at Duke (7 p.m. ET, ESPNU)
Stakes: Despite devastating back-to-back losses to Virginia Tech and North Carolina, which converted Duke from ACC Coastal front-runner to runner-up, the Blue Devils still have a chance to finish 9-3. That would be their second nine-win season since before World War II. (The last one came 12 months ago.) Wake is trying to finish an otherwise frustrating season for Dave Clawson on a two-game win streak.
F/+ ranking: Duke 26th, Wake 86th
F/+ Win Probability: Duke 95%
Biggest Question: Does Duke rebound? That's the only question. The Duke offense is better than a decent Wake defense, and the Duke defense is much better than the wretched Wake O. But full-season numbers don't matter if the Blue Devils play in the kind of funk they showed last Thursday night, when UNC was running around, over, and through them. Wake is playing hard, if not well. Hard might be enough if Duke isn't prepared.
Hawaii at Fresno State (7 p.m. ET, MWC Video)
Stakes: If Fresno State wins, the Bulldogs not only reach 6-6 but secure the MWC West crown at 5-3. If they lose, things depend on two other results: San Jose State at San Diego State (3:30 p.m. ET, CBSSN) and Nevada at UNLV (10:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU). If SDSU wins, the Aztecs are the champ. If SJSU and Nevada win, Fresno still takes the title (at 5-7!). If SJSU and UNLV win, it's ... wait, it's Hawaii? Seriously? At 5-8? Neat! Go Rainbow Warriors!
F/+ ranking: Hawaii 100th, Fresno State 110th
F/+ Win Probability: Fresno State 57%
Biggest Question: Seriously? Hawaii can still win the Mountain West? How did I not realize we were this close to college football's first 7-8 record?
No. 15 Auburn at No. 1 Alabama (7:45 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Stakes: Well, aside from "It's the Iron Bowl, of course," this one still has SEC and national title implications, even if they're one-sided. After tough losses to Texas A&M and Georgia, Auburn has been reduced to a spoiler role as Alabama attempts to clinch the SEC West.
F/+ ranking: Alabama first, Auburn eighth
F/+ Win Probability: Alabama 76%
Biggest Question: Any magic left, War Eagle? Auburn found that its stock was depleted at the end of the A&M game, then got trounced at Georgia and sleepwalked through an uninspiring win over Samford. In terms of trends, Alabama's plateaued at a high level and Auburn is fading rapidly. But since when do trends and numbers and logic matter in this game? You watched last year, right?
(Alabama’s win probability was 78 percent heading into last year’s Iron Bowl. The Tigers have ‘em right where they want ‘em.)
No. 2 Oregon at Oregon State (8 p.m. ET, ABC)
Stakes: Oregon needs only to win its last two -- at Oregon State, then against the Pac-12 South champion -- to lock down a Playoff bid. Oregon State needs a win to reach 6-6 and go bowling.
F/+ ranking: Oregon second, OSU 68th
F/+ Win Probability: Oregon 96%
Biggest Question: How exactly does OSU plan to stop the Ducks? There's one number you need to know: 122. That's where the Oregon State defense ranks in Rushing S&P+. There are 128 teams in FBS.
The Oregon defense isn’t elite, and Oregon State could catch fire and turn this into a shootout. But the Beavers will have to make a stop, and nobody has stopped Oregon in a while. The Ducks have rushed for at least 250 yards in five of their last six games and have scored at least 42 points in all six.
Utah State at No. 23 Boise State (10:15 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
Stakes: Winner is assured at least a share of the MWC Mountain title. If Boise State wins, the Broncos are in the MWC title game. If Utah State wins, it's either the Aggies (if Colorado State lost to Air Force) or CSU.
F/+ ranking: Boise 34th, USU 51st
F/+ Win Probability: Boise State 77%
Biggest Question: Can the Utah State offense keep it up? A strange thing has happened in Logan over the last month: despite burning through quarterbacks like tires at a Hot Rod Association show, the Aggies have begun to move the ball. They have averaged at least 6.5 yards per play in four straight (and at least 7.1 in three of the four), and freshman Kent Myers has completed 74 percent with five scores and one interception in that span.
That’s great, but Boise State ranks 32nd in Def. F/+, just slightly better than USU’s last four victims (No. 89 Hawaii, No. 107 Wyoming, No. 123 New Mexico, and No. 70 San Jose State). Does Myers hold up?
Washington at Washington State (10:30 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1)
Stakes: Apple Cup! That's enough. A hell of a way to close the weekend.
F/+ ranking: UW 60th, Wazzu 83rd
F/+ Win Probability: Washington 68%
Biggest Question: Was this intentional? Planning what might be the longest game of the weekend to kick off at 10:30 p.m. ET?
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