Jay Cutler is the most tragic player in the NFL, and none of the competition is close. If tragedy is, in part, potential wasted, then we can prove that empirically in Cutler's case -- the highest-paid player in the NFL has been benched, rendering his value effectively zero. If great tragedy is enduring, let the record show that Cutler may be the best quarterback Chicago has ever had. He has left a sad mark on the team that may not be removed for a long time. This season that began with so much hope is in the toilet, and Cutler is the frumpy face scarring the payroll, the stat sheet and the sideline.
NFL Sad Bracket: What is the face of tragedy?
The NFL’s most tragic team is up for debate. Its most tragic player is not.
Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports
The Bears may be the most tragic team in the NFL. Opinions will vary, of course. We can't prove it as easily as we can with Cutler, at least not with established means. The NFL has ways to determine the worst team in the NFL (for the NFL Draft), and the best team (via the playoffs). It has yet to develop a methodology to determine the most tragic team in the league, however.
This is an attempt to do that, based on a theory (and only a theory) that the most tragic team occupies a place in the league that isn’t quite bad, but is definitively not good. It is a team in a place where it can see, in the distance, how things could be so much better, and because it can see greatness, it is painfully aware how far away it is. The model is Cutler -- a quarterback who was paid more money than anyone because of the tools he had, then fell short.
The method: Put the 12 worst teams in a playoff bracket using a bizarro version of the NFL’s regular playoff selection process, then make those teams try to beat each other as if the games actually mean something. The games don’t mean anything. The worst team in the NFL annually gets to pick up the best player in college football, and the best team gets a trophy. The reward for tragedy is nothing, except maybe catharsis and some amusement.
The field:
NFC
Division losers:
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-12, 4th place NFC South)
5. Washington (3-11, 4th place NFC East)
4. Chicago Bears (5-9, 4th place NFC North)
3. St. Louis Rams (6-8, 4th place NFC West)
Wildcard
2. Atlanta Falcons (5-9, 3rd place NFC South)
1. New York Giants (5-9, 3rd place NFC East) [Head-to-head tiebreaker over Falcons]
The NFC race is tight and varied. There’s the defensive-minded Rams, offensive-minded Falcons, a Bears team on a steep downslope, and a Giants team on the up. A first round bout between Washington and Chicago is a schadenfreudist’s dream. At a glance it’s hard to say how this bracket will shake out. This is legitimately exciting playoff.
AFC
Division losers:
6. Oakland Raiders (2-12, 4th place AFC West)
5. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-12, 4th place AFC South) [Common games tiebreaker over Raiders]
4. New York Jets (3-11, 4th place AFC East)
3. Cleveland Browns (7-7, 4th place AFC North)
Wildcard
2. Tennessee Titans (2-12, 3rd place AFC South)
1. Miami Dolphins (7-7, 3rd place AFC East)
The AFC bracket, conversely, is a little too top heavy for drama. Two teams have only just recently had their playoff hopes dashed, whereas the bottom four have been out of contention for several months now. Everything that occurs until the championship game between the Browns and the Dolphins will be a sideshow -- but what a fine sideshow. Gus Bradley and Rex Ryan are fonts of enthusiasm. The Raiders trade in weirdness (and recently added foresight to their draft evaluation process!). It’s hard to say what the redeeming value is in watching the Titans -- which is a special thing, too. The result is a lot of matchups that you wouldn’t accept money to watch.
NFC Playoffs
Wildcard (winners in bold)
6. Buccaneers vs. 3. Rams
5. Washington vs. 4. Bears
The two most discussed locker rooms were in Chicago and Washington this season. Both teams are playing on battered psyches, but I don't think Washington has experienced anything quite as jarring as the Bears' loss to the New Orleans Saints Monday night. Washington entered the season with lower expectations, and has gotten pretty good at taping over (but never patching) its dysfunction. Leaked reports and press conference double speak is all pretty new to this Bears team. Chicago is too fragile to beat anyone at the moment, especially with Jimmy Clausen at quarterback.
Divisional
5. Washington vs. 1. Giants
3. Rams vs. 2. Falcons
Hopefully the above paragraph didn’t make you think Washington is functional. It’s not.
Rams-Falcons, however, is a good matchup. The Rams have given up just 12 total points over its last three games. The Falcons have score a total of 86 points. That means that when the Rams and Falcon play, at least half of the game will be played at a high level. And the weaknesses match up well enough to make the other half of the game competitive. The Rams get the nod because they have a higher potential to put up a lot of points on any given the day than the Falcons do of fielding a competent defense. But it’s a close matchup that could feasibly fall Atlanta’s way. It’s too bad we won’t actually get to watch.
Championship
3. Rams vs. 1. Giants
Coincidentally, the NFC's tragic championship matchup will be taking place this Sunday in St. Louis. The Giants enter off two convincing wins, but that doesn't mean as much as it could when the opponents are Tennessee and Washington. St. Louis beat Oakland and Washington for its last two wins, but it has also beaten quality opponents this season. The Giants best win came in Week 3 against the Houston Texans. The Rams have beaten the Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers and Denver Broncos.
The Giants could make the game close, but the Rams are superior.
AFC Playoffs
Wildcard (winners in bold)
6. Raiders vs. 3. Browns
5. Jaguars vs. 4. Jets
The Browns' 7-7 record may not reflect the team in its current state. The team decided to start Johnny Manziel just last week, and he showed the potential to sink the entire enterprise after a performance that one could call "uneven" to be complimentary. The Browns were blanked while Manziel went 10-for-18 passing for just 80 yards. He threw two interceptions and had zero scores. I don't know that the the current Browns would beat the current Raiders, but there's a larger of body of work that suggests that Cleveland is a much better team.
Divisional
5. Jets vs. 1. Dolphins
3. Browns vs. 2. Titans
The Jags-Jets matchup in the first round was a toss-up, but the Jets moved forward because of a powerful running attack. Unfortunately, that running game didn’t do the Jets much good against the Dolphins two weeks ago, when they ran up 277 yards on the ground and still lost, 16-13.
The Titans just seem limp, which is what happens when you can't Charlie Whitehurst as a bright spot. The Titans help us draw an important distinction between "tragic" and "sad." Tragedy requires a measure of hope. Remember that glimpse of greatness in the distance? The Titans never caught that glimpse. They strived for 'meh,' and couldn't even touch that bar. That's sad.
Championship
3. Browns vs. 1. Dolphins
The machination is in place to make Manziel a tragic figure. The map of the fall has been sketched, from Heisman winner to beaten, broken pulp of a once-exciting quarterback. In the sketch, the path to the bottom is lined with hubris, which we’ve seen in the form of Cashin’ Out fingers and pictures from clubs. This is classic Greek tragedy, a narrative as ancient as it is innately recognizable, which explains why many are burying the Manziel era after just one start. It’s too easy.
But it’s much too soon. Manziel just turned 22 and has one career NFL start. This story won’t be over for several more years, much less after one game against an excellent defense. Manziel, and the Browns, haven’t accomplished enough to be tragic yet.
The Dolphins aren't a perfect tragedy, but they're more deserving as one of the league's most ambitious offseason spenders. Miami has had its hopes dashed perhaps more often than any team in the league. A season-opening win over the New England Patriots fed into two straight losses. A strong first half in November against the Denver Broncos fed into a second half collapse. December has been mediocre or worse.
But you’ve won this championship, Miami. Hooray?
The Saddest Super Bowl
Rams vs. Dolphins
It's hard to think of two more bittersweet teams in the NFL this year than the Rams and the Dolphins. The Browns and Bills may qualify, but neither of those teams have a bigger "what if?" than the Rams do with Sam Bradford, and neither has tried as desperately to buy their way into contention as the Dolphins. The Rams and Dolphins experienced a lot of good this season -- the Rams began to make proper use of their offensive skill talent, and the Dolphins' investment in Ryan Tannehill is beginning to pay off -- but there is a cloud over it. To play four months of football and have only moral victories to show for it isn't succeeding by the NFL's standards.
The Rams are at least ending the season on an uptick, though, winning five of their last nine and looking like a stronger team by the week. The Dolphins have come down from the top of the AFC East, which has been won by the Patriots the last six seasons and 11 of the last 12.
The Dolphins also have had the bigger share of bad luck. According to Football Outsiders, the Dolphins are the 11th best team in league by DVOA, and should have an estimated 8.3 wins instead of the seven they’re currently saddled with. They’re more complete than the Rams, and should win this matchup. Their prize is the offseason.
Winner: The Miami Dolphins
¯\_(╯︵╰,)_/¯
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