A big chunk of my Monday time is generally devoted to my weekly positional rankings. Or, I guess, “was,” since I won’t spend a Monday doing that again for, like, eight months. This week, I was working on my wide receiver rankings, and I very clearly remember having a specific thought:
Fantasy football advice, Week 17: Keep up with FanDuel value
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“Screw it,” the thought went. “I’m ranking Odell Beckham Jr. No. 1 at wide receivers.”
It was bold, I thought. Sure, the rookie has been outstanding, and the New York Giants close out their season against a Philadelphia Eagles team that struggled against receivers even when they still had something to play for. Still, he is a rookie, and this is the same position with stuff-to-play-for superstars such as Antonio Brown, Calvin Johnson, Jordy Nelson and Demaryius Thomas, plus a whole host of other premium names. I thought I was going out on a limb, making a statement by ranking Beckham No. 1.
Then I saw our consensus WR ranks for Week 17. And ESPN's Matthew Berry published his own Week 17 ranks. And I saw that not only was I not alone in ranking Beckham at the top, but it was unanimous.
And then I brought up a FanDuel tournament for the week to come, and toggled to receivers. Yep, Beckham's at the top there, too, with a $9,200 salary that is $200 more than Thomas and $200 more than Brown, Johnson and Dez Bryant. Apparently I'm not as bold as I thought. (I was, though, the only one to rank Fitzgerald Toussaint at running back, so there!)
Okay, so I’m no great innovator. Breaking down last week’s best FanDuel rosters, the key then was Beckham as well -- he appears on eight of the week’s top 10 rosters; no one else was on more than six, and no other wide receiver was on more than three.
The thing with anyone who, like Beckham, rises from virtual anonymity to high prestige is that his salary keeps pace. He’s $9,200 this week after $9,000 last. A month ago, he was probably in the $8,000 range; in Week 6, he might not have reached $5,000. Imagine if you will that a theoretical version of Beckham put up exactly 20 fantasy points in each week from beginning to end. Obviously, the $5,000 version of that player is significantly more valuable in FanDuel than the $9,200 version.
None of this is to say you shouldn’t invest in Beckham in Week 17. If he can keep going like he has been in recent weeks, he will absolutely be worth his high price tag. The problem is that with Beckham ranked No. 1, he needs to put up the huge numbers we now expect or he won’t be worth the cash. A couple months ago, an investment in Beckham was a flyer; you counted on your high-end guys, and hoped the discounted ones came through. Now he is one of those high-end guys, and you can’t afford to be wrong anymore.
In season-long fantasy, a guy offers more or less the same potential value in Week 4 as in Week 8 as in Week 17. In FanDuel, that couldn’t be less true, as salary concerns become huge. Always keep that in mind.
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