The Atlanta Braves signed outfielder Nick Markakis to a four-year, $44 million contract, leaving the market short another starting caliber outfielder. Most of the impact bats have signed before the Winter Meetings, including outfielder to be Hanley Ramirez, and should-be-DH Nelson Cruz.
Best available free agent outfielders
Melky Cabrera is top dog when it comes to the remaining outfield market.
Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Markakis, 31, hit .276/.342/.386, with 14 home runs, resulting in an offensive season six percent above league average according to wRC+. That’s not an impact player by any means, with the production relative to league average being aided by a league-wide decline in offensive production. It’s likely that the move from Oriole Park at Camden Yards to Turner Park could negatively impact the meager power numbers that Markakis has, as well. Still, Atlanta has locked down right field for the next four years, as it enters what looks to be something of a transition year in 2015.
With Markakis off the market, though, let’s look at who is the best of what’s left:
Melky Cabrera is the best outfielder on the market, and it's possible the Blue Jays just assured that he won't be returning to Toronto by acquiring Michael Saunders. It's easy to think that's a notable downgrade for Toronto, who also let Colby Rasmus was in free agency, but it's worth noting:
Melky Cabrera's 2014 OPS: .808. Michael Saunders 2014 OPS: .791. And note where each played his home games. #Bluejays #Jays
— Mike Wilner (@Wilnerness590) December 4, 2014 Cabrera missed 23 games in 2014, but also put together a .301/.351/.458 slash line when healthy. It was a tremendous season, and a necessary one following a lackluster 2013 season. Any potential signing team has to be concerned about which Melky they’ll get, but it’s worth noting that if you extend his history back to 2011, he’s been a .309/.351/.458 hitter, including a bad 2013. He might be more consistent than you think, and could reasonably be expected to better Markakis’ deal given his lower age and better offensive numbers.
Alex Rios continued his yo-yo act in terms of offensive performance, and paired it with his worst defensive season (by the numbers) to boot. At 33, he's the oldest player on this list, and is likely to be looking at the shortest deal. A below-average offensive player in 2014, Rios was a well-above average bat as recently as 2012, and a solid corner outfielder in 2013. There's not a lot of impact here, and he limits himself offensively by staunchly refusing to walk, but there's the potential for a useful down-order bat on a short-term deal.
Colby Rasmus strikes out at an alarmingly high rate given his relative lack of power. He did belt 18 home runs in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre, but with a 33 percent strikeout rate, it wouldn’t be unfair to expect closer to 30. He does walk enough to make himself useful if he can hit for average, but there’s more and more evidence to suggest he can’t. The ability to play center field likely secures him a starting job, but without enough bat for a corner spot, it could be ugly if last year’s defensive metrics are telling the truth.
Norichika Aoki will hit in the upper .280s and get on base right around 35 percent of the time, this he's proven capable of over the last three seasons. The issue, of course, is the almost complete lack of power outside his rookie season in 2012. The upside is that even as a lefty, he's a career reverse platoon split guy, which means you don't have to find a platoon partner. The downside outside from the power is adventurous routes in the outfield, which were on full display during the Royals magical run in the 2014 post-season. There's also poor base running despite good speed, but the overall package is a plus. Still, he's going to fill the two-spot in someone's lineup on a regular basis, and if it's on a short-term deal, that's all the better.
Michael Morse is a flawed player. At least he's flawed in a way that's relatively useful. Sure, he's bad defensively, but you can sub for him in late innings. Sure, he's going to miss some time, but if you know that going in, you can plan for it. Sure, he's going to swing and miss early and often, but even his peaks in this respect aren't as bad as Rasmus, and he's shown the power totals to justify it. He'll pack a punch in any respective lineup when he's healthy enough to be in it, but the same health concerns will likely limit the 32-year-old to a one- or two-year contract.
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