The Spike Factor, where some offenses should just give up

There are many ways to measure the success or failure of a given football play. Coaches might judge a snap on whether or not all 11 players stuck to their assignments. Advanced statistics types usually judge an offensive play based on whether or not it picked up a percentage of yardage to gain that varies according to the down. And fans might apply more emotionally charged valuations in their assessments of success.

The Spike Factor is simpler than all of those measurements because it asks only one question about each play the offense runs: is the end result better than just snapping the ball and spiking it? There’s no adjustment for situation or yardage. A 3-yard run on third-and-27 is just as successful as an 80-yard touchdown pass on second-and-2, and a 1-yard loss on first down is just as much of a failure as an interception thrown in the red zone.

How do we calculate the Spike Factor? It’s quite simple. First, count the number of plays the offense ran that failed to gain any yardage; these are termed Spike Plays. Then, divide that by the total number of plays the offense ran in the entire game. Multiply by 100, and boom: you’ve got the percentage of snaps where a team would have been equally or more successful calling a spike.

Assuredly, you have questions.

What about penalties?

Penalties which cancel out a play (like pass interference) don’t technically count as plays in either metric. The grey area is penalties in which the play stands, like holding well beyond the line of scrimmage on a long run or a sack that includes a late hit after the whistle. In those instances, we count the play and determine whether or not it’s a Spike Play based on where the yardage ends up.

And kneel-downs or actual spikes?

Not counted at all, since these plays aren’t yardage-oriented.

Any other exceptions?

It’s not an exception, per se, but fourth down has a quirk. For instance, say you go for it on fourth-and-9 and get 8 yards. Even though you’ve turned the ball over, this isn’t a Spike Play because you’ve at least got better field position than if you’d spiked it there.

Does this metric even matter?

Spiritually or ethically? No. But of the 16 teams that won last week, 15 had a lower Spike Factor than their opponent. The one team that won the Spike Factor battle but not the game was Jacksonville, who lost to Philadelphia in flagrant defiance of football logic.

What’s the point of the Spike Factor?

To mock teams that fail, of course. Let’s dive in!

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Week 1 of the NFL season is always a little weird. Teams always look a little rusty adjusting to four full quarters of actual gameplay, and reshuffled units are still adjusting to new schemes, players, or coaching. League-wide, 32.61 percent of the plays run last week resulted in no or negative gain. We won’t know whether that turns out to be a good measuring stick until a few more weeks of data, but it’s good enough for now to determine the most and least spiky teams so far. (Data for every team can be found in this spreadsheet.)

CARLOS SANTANA SMOOTH TEAM OF THE WEEK

Four teams finished with Spike Factors below 25 percent in Week 1, and they all ended up winning. The Santana Award is only for the smoothest team of the week, though, and that honor goes to the Buffalo Bills, who only failed to pick up yardage on 20 percent of their plays in an overtime win over the Bears. They narrowly edged out the Seattle Seahawks, close behind with a Spike Factor of 20.97 percent. Should you bet on a Bills-Seahawks Super Bowl right away? Yes. Yes you should.

THE ALMOST WORST

On the other end of the spectrum, seven teams stumbled to a Spike Factor above 40 percent, and, unsurprisingly, six of them are 0-1. The outlier is Philadelphia, who tallied a Spike Factor of 44.44 percent and managed to win. This was in large part because the Jaguars, Philadelphia’s opponent, joined them in the above-40 club, failing to gain yards on 42.25 percent of their offensive snaps. The Eagles were especially bad in the first half against Jacksonville; they ran 40 plays and only made forward progress on 21 of them. FIRE CHIP KELLY DOT GEOCITIES DOT COM.

But! The Eagles were not the worst team this week according to our entirely made-up statistic, and so they are not awarded ...

THE TETANUS SPIKE

Oh, Oakland. Starting a rookie quarterback on the road against a team known for its ferocity (if not consistently talented) defense gave you a pretty good chance of winning this prize, and you came through. 45.83 percent of the plays the Raiders ran resulted in a gain of zero or fewer yards, the worst rate in Week 1. The good news, if there is any, is that Oakland only ran 48 plays on offense. Very courteous of them to stay off the field as much as possible.

RACE FOR THE S.S. TETANUS

Normally, one week does not a season make, but, well, um, right now it’s all we have. It’s a long road to the end of the season, however, where we’ll award the S.S. TETANUS to the spikiest team of them all. Enjoy your head start, Raiders fans. And get your shots updated.