NFL picks against the spread: 2015 AFC, NFC Championship betting help

Being a fan is nerve-racking. Championship games are all or nothing. By noon, that shirtsey won’t be of any comfort. Every means of rationalizing a positive outcome, a path the Super Bowl for YOUR team will have run its course by that time. All there is faith, underpinned by the acceptance of the possibility of losing, and whatever’s left on the vegetable tray Tim brought over for the game (Tim sucks, maybe he’s compromising fate too).

Gambling has none of those things. You buy interest an in a team for that day, and not necessarily to win. Championship games are just like any other games with cash riding on it. And unless this one is for the month’s rent, winning and losing money just doesn’t carry the same kind of attachment. In a way, it might truly be a more enjoyable way to experience the games, at least a more logical one.

But we’re not here to talk about how you should enjoy the NFC and AFC Championship games. We’re here to talk about what kind of bets you should make on these games. Please remember, this is merely advice for you to consider. That important caveat out of the way, let’s get to the games.

All odds are courtesy of our friends at Oddsshark.

Green Bay Packers vs. Seattle Seahawks

Spread: Seahawks -8
Over/Under: 45.5

It’s tempting to point to Seattle’s dismantling of Green Bay back in Week 1. The Seahawks won 36-16, beating the spread by a lot. Health was less of a factor in that one that it is this time around. Aaron Rodgers’ calf injury captured the headlines this week. He’ll get his thimble full of happy juice before the game this week, in enough to time to have him feeling more like the player we saw in the second half last week, as opposed to the guy clearly favoring his other side in the first half.

In Week 1, Seattle held Rodgers, a healthy Rodgers, to just 189 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Only six of his 33 attempts were deep throws. Six. And then there’s that business with targeting Richard Sherman’s side of the field. That fact alone makes that eight-point spread and the Seahawks an enticing bet, if not a very profitable one.

Eddie Lacy is probably more important to the Packers game plan this time around. At least he should be, since the Packers ground game has improved significantly since the first week of the season.

Picking the Packers to win this one means betting on Dom Capers’ defense. That’s easier to do based on recent performances. The Falcons are the only team that score more than 21 points against Green Bay since November. But I still don’t trust them to keep the tandem of Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson in check. The Packers defense just seems too susceptible to misdirection, especially from the masters of it.

The pick: Seattle to win, Green Bay to cover.

Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots

Spread: -6.5 Patriots
O/U: 53

I didn’t think the Colts had a chance against the Broncos last week. I damn sure didn’t think their offensive line would be able to keep DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller from hitting Andrew Luck one time, but here we are.

The Colts have played Belichick and the Patriots three times since Andrew Luck was drafted. The narrowest margin in those games was a 43-22 Patriots win in the divisional round last January. In two of those three games, the last two, the Patriots offense produced more than 230 rushing yards in each of those games, including Jonas Gray’s 15 minutes of fame in Week 11 this season.

So the Patriots will pile on another 150+ rushing yards and a Tom Brady touchdown or two, right? Maybe, but this being the Patriots we can expect exactly what we don’t expect. I’m not sure how the Colts defense can stop the Patriots’ passing game. They’re toward the bottom of the league against tight ends, ranked just 27th in DVOA against tight ends this season. That’s a good sign for Rob Gronkowski swiveling his hips in the end zone.

We can expect the Colts to score some points as well, making the over very likely (something a majority of bettors have already keyed in on).

The pick: Patriots to beat the spread