Fantasy football advice, Wild Card weekend: FanDuel roster tinkering

How do you know when you’re done with your roster? Well, in wild-card weekend ... you don’t.Click here to get a 100% deposit bonus on FanDuel

by Daniel Kelley

Jan 2, 2015, 4:30 PM UTC

Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

I went back and forth on this week's primary FanDuel lineup. And I used the wrong tense in that sentence, because I feel pretty sure I'm going to continue going back and forth right up until Saturday's first game starts.

Wild card weekend in the NFL playoffs is a weird one for FanDuel-style games. We aren't going to have any games like that Jacksonville-Tennessee Thursday nighter a few weeks ago. On the other hand, the most fantasy-helpful playoff teams are, in some order, Green Bay, New England and Denver -- Seattle always has Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson -- and those teams are all on a bye. What we're left with, then, is a weekend (with the noteworthy exception of wide receiver) full of the second-tier fantasy options. They're good, but they aren't great.

That means this week’s FanDuel roster setup is more like playing with Legos than tangrams. (Lookit me, tossin’ out kid-toy analogies. You can tell I’ve spent the holidays with my nieces and nephews.) See, with tangrams, you get various shapes, and you have to fit the smaller shapes into the larger shape. In general, there’s only one way to do it, but there doesn’t have to be. You just make it work, and you know when you’re done. But with Legos, you just have a bucket of shapes, and you have to make a picture out of it yourself. You’re done when you decide to stop, when you say “eh, good enough.”

Most weeks, when I’m picking my FanDuel lineup, I have some idea of what my final roster will look like. Maybe I’ll have to pick whatever third receiver or kicker I can afford, but when I get to a good lineup, it just looks right. “Oh, that rectangle and that square and that rhombus come together to make a lion. Cool.” But with this week’s rosters, I’ve jumped around. I’m still not happy with them. I’m posting them here, and if Arizona-Carolina were to start at noon, sure, that’s what I’m going with. But I fully expect I’ll be changing these rosters. I was good at Legos, y’all, but I never knew when to settle.

Some justifications (And tune in Saturday when I explain a lot of this in more detail):

The notable passing-game Steelers (Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant and Heath Miller) are all represented here. Le'Veon Bell either won't play Saturday or will be far below 100 percent. Ben Tate isn't even in this weekend's FanDuel player pool, and Dri Archer and Josh Harris haven't done anything (though, frankly, I actually like Archer's long-term talent). Meanwhile, the Ravens have a brutal pass defense. Pittsburgh is likely to be passing a lot.
The struggles of Arizona's offense mean the Cardinals just don't hold the ball very long. That means Cam Newton will at a minimum have plenty of quantity, which could negate some of the need for quality. If he can get quality with that quantity, even better.
The one player represented on both of my rosters is Jeremy Hill. He is, for me, the single best investment this weekend -- still reasonably priced, but a clear No. 1 running back on a weekend when the other big names have things that bother me. Meanwhile, the Colts are nothing special on run defense, and A.J. Green is likely to be below full strength Sunday. Love me some Hill.
Of course, the Carolina defense isn't a "player," but it's also on both rosters. How can you go wrong playing a defense against Ryan Lindley, really?
And then there are the downsides. I really don't care for Jonathan Stewart (against a good Arizona defense) or Justin Forsett (seemed to hit a wall before Week 17's decent game), but with Bell possibly out, DeMarco Murray less than full strength against an elite run defense, and the largely no-name guys in the next tier, I didn't care for any other options any more.

As I said above, I am in no way committing to these rosters for the weekend. Dri Archer interests me a bit. If A.J. Green does play, I might actually choose Mohamed Sanu -- a less-than-full-strength Green will still draw Vontae Davis, leaving Sanu to do other stuff. Heck, I'm higher on Tony Romo than just about anyone, and he isn't in there anywhere.

Committing too early is always a mistake. The best I can tell you is that, right now, this is what I have. It’s a Lego house. But I might turn it into a Lego mansion, or just convert it to a Lego strip mall. I’m just not done yet.