FanDuel advice: Wait as long as you can to set this week’s lineup
With seemingly every player entering Week 6 as a question mark, don’t commit to any lineup earlier than you have to.
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Week 6 of the 2015 NFL season is one of the most frustrating ones in recent memory, at least for me. Injuries, of course, are a big part of every football week, but as far as I can recall (and memory can be faulty, admittedly), there are more “questionables” and “game-time decisions” this week than any in a while.
Every week in this space, I run through what I see as the good and bad FanDuel situations, taking salary and matchup and what-have-you into account. My normal procedure is to pick the guys I want to discuss on Thursday, write it up Friday and post it Saturday. I did that this week, too, only for Friday to become the Great Changing of the Prognoses.
Steve Smith Sr. was maybe going to play Thursday; he probably wasn’t on Friday. LeSean McCoy was only cautiously optimistic Thursday before being called probable Friday before then saying he wasn’t 100 percent. T.J. Yeldon, Justin Forsett and Mike Wallace all saw their fortunes change Friday.
This happens every week, as I said. It just feels like it’s happened more this week than most. And it forced me to re-evaluate some of my matchup picks. Long story short, I won’t be situation-evaluating as many guys this week as normal. It’s Friday night. Saturday is coming, and then Sunday will be the Time of Game-Time Decisions. Can I safely recommend for or against Yeldon or Toby Gerhart? Forsett or Buck Allen? Wallace or Charles Johnson?
This week there are a lot of questions. I would always recommend locking in to a FanDuel lineup as late as possible anyway, but this week in particular, I won’t even be looking at my Sunday lineups until, like, noon Sunday.
It’s good advice in general. For Week 6, though, there can be no debate: Set your lineup as late as possible.
On to the looks:
Quarterbacks
Good situations
- I was going to make my point this week about Jay Cutler ($7,500) by embedding a tweet from Grantland's Robert Mays about his game last week, but it turns out that tweet has a bad word, and y'all are too delicate for such things. Safe to say Cutler was really good a week ago, despite still being without some of his weapons. Cutler should get Alshon Jeffery and Eddie Royal back Sunday (but who knows, because aaaaggghhh), but might lose Martellus Bennett. Either way, the Lions give up a lot of points to opposing quarterbacks. Cutler's a strong play at an affordable price.
- Okay, so Josh McCown has been more successful than we expected. But the biggest contributor to his huge Week 5 was the team opposite him, a Baltimore defense that has ceased being able to stop much of anyone. This week, it's Colin Kaepernick ($7,300) who faces them, featuring two wide receivers who know this Baltimore team well. Kaepernick rebounded from his rough Weeks 3 and 4 to look good again in Week 5, and I bet that continues into Week 6.
Bad situations
- We like to think that games against the Packers turn into shootouts, with opposing quarterbacks having to throw and throw to keep up with the Green Bay offense. This year, though, they're one of the stingiest teams in the league against opposing quarterbacks, with only one of the five opponents putting up more than 18 fantasy points and the group at large averaging 12.6. Philip Rivers ($7,500) had a strong Week 5, and is fine in season-long, but for daily I'd want to look elsewhere.
Running backs
Good situations
- First, Dion Lewis is questionable for the Patriots heading into Sunday night. Second, the Patriots are, you know, facing the Colts. LeGarrette Blount ($6,500) has a career's worth of highlights just from New England-Indianapolis games, and while it's hard to bet real money on "this team's angry," if there's ever a time for it, it's this game.
- I have to cite ESPN's Matthew Berry on this, because I couldn't confirm it myself without just miles and miles of research, but according to Berry, no team has allowed more receptions to running backs since the start of last year than the Broncos. Combine that with their stellar defense and teams are going to have to get creative to beat Denver. I don't generally love Duke Johnson Jr. ($5,900) as a player, but this is the kind of matchup where he'll do well and catch passes. At that price, he has crazy upside.
Bad situations
- The popular opinion coming out of the regime change in Miami is that the team will figure out how to use Lamar Miller ($6,400) and better days will be ahead for the running back, who has 18 total fantasy points in standard scoring all season, otherwise known as a decent half of a game for Devonta Freeman. That might well turn out that way. But we need to see it at least one before we bother with him in daily.
Wide receivers
Good situation
- I've been running this stat out there everywhere I can this week, because I find it amazing: In standard fantasy scoring, only two wide receivers have put up nine-plus fantasy points in every game they've played all year, and they are teammates: Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker ($6,100). Granted, Decker missed a game, but it's still true. He's in there at a very reasonable price, against a Washington defense that has no issue allowing touchdowns to receivers.
Bad situation
- I was first going to write about Antonio Brown here, but as long as Michael Vick is the quarterback, who the heck would be using him anyway? No, let's look cheaper, at someone people might think will have a big game in his debut, who is a big name without big performance to support that. Just don't use Martavis Bryant ($6,100) this week. Even if Ben Roethlisberger were around, I'd stay away. With Vick, it's a definite don't-touch.
Tight ends
Good situation
- Washington hasn't had a lot of luck on offense this year, but the team's tight ends have been successful. Take out the game Jordan Reed got hurt (when the team had to switch in the middle), and Reed and Derek Carrier ($4,900) are averaging 9.3 fantasy points a game in standard scoring. Carrier isn't Reed, but he also doesn't carry Reed's normal price tag. If you're hunting for a bargain, there's potential.
Bad situation
- You understand why the Colts would want both of their tight ends on the field. More weapons is always good. But damned if it isn't frustrating for fantasy owners. Coby Fleener ($5,100) is a pretty reliable performer when Dwayne Allen ($5,000) misses games, and Allen will occasionally run into a touchdown, but with both of them on the field, there's just no way to pick one with any confidence.
See More:
