I’ve watched bad teams over the years, a lot of them. I am a Rams fan, so after the Greatest Show on Turf got old and the parts auctioned off, I’ve seen more than my fair share of terrible games over the last decade. But I’ve never seen 0-16. Close, but never quite that bad, so I have to extend my sympathy to Lions fans who are no doubt wondering if they’re witnessing the second 0-16 team in less than a decade. It’s really starting to look that way.
Week 6 NFL picks against the spread, 2015: Will the Broncos blow it in Cleveland?
The Broncos are undefeated but hobbled. Can the Browns pull off the upset of the week as big underdogs at home?
The Lions are actually favored this week. Really. They’re getting 3.5 points at home against the Bears, which makes me wonder if anyone in Las Vegas has actually watched the Bears play the last two weeks. Jay Cutler isn’t making the kind of mistakes we’re used to seeing, the defense is good enough to keep them in games until the bitter end ... not too bad for a team that was the favorite to win the first overall pick in the 2016 draft earlier this season.
A slim majority of the bets for this game are going to the Lions. History probably plays some role here. Detroit is 5-0 against the spread in their last five games as favorites against the Bears. But the Lions haven’t scored more than 17 points in a game since Week 1.
More indicative of the problems they face were reports last week from Arizona players that they felt like Detroit’s players were giving up DURING the game. That’s never a good sign. Suddenly they’re going to turn it around this week? Jim Caldwell is going to inspire his team to go out there and do everything they haven’t been doing all season? Oh, and the injuries have now added up for the Lions too; the defense is missing both Tyrunn Walker and Haloti Ngata, a huge loss for their defensive line.
What I’m saying here is that you should bet on the Bears to cover a 3.5-point spread. In fact, you can probably just bet on them to win this thing outright. The over/under in this one is 44.5 points. Most of the action has been on the under, understandably so. However, I’d be willing to stake a bet on the over. Matt Forte could run through this Detroit defense all day, and there’s no on left to pressure Jay Cutler.
Bet on the Browns?
Always take that advice with a grain of salt, but this week, there might actually be something to it. The Broncos are 4.5-point favorites in Cleveland this week. And why not? The Broncos are undefeated, thanks largely to a suffocating defense. And the Browns, are, well, they’re the Browns.
But this Broncos team feels a little wobbly on its feet. You’re well versed in Peyton Manning’s struggles this season. Denver failed to score an offensive touchdown last week for the second time this season. That’s never happened to the Manning-led Broncos before this year, and now it’s happened twice.
Denver will also be without DeMarcus Ware, who was making a strong case to be the Defensive Player of the Year. That defense is still plenty loaded up front and in the secondary. They’re still capable of ruining a lesser quarterback like Josh McCown, no matter how impressive his passing numbers have been lately ... he is still Josh McCown.
However, I’m having a real hard time coming to grips with the Broncos covering the spread here. I think it could be this week’s big upset. Cleveland is 5-1 against the spread in their last six as underdogs. Take that information and run with it. Be the smartest cat in the room this Sunday.
Here are the rest of my bets. My picks are in all caps.
Broncos (-4.5) at BROWNS
DOLPHINS at Titans (-1.5)
Washington at JETS (-7)
Chiefs at VIKINGS (-4)
BENGALS (-3.5) at Bills
BEARS at Detroit (-3.5)
TEXANS at Jaguars (-1)
CARDINALS (-4) at Steelers
Panthers at SEAHAWKS (-7)
Chargers at PACKERS (-10.5)
Ravens (-2) at 49ERS
PATRIOTS (-10.5) at Colts
Giants at EAGLES (-5)
