FanDuel advice: What has changed since Week 1?

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If you ask me, my greatest strength and weakness as an analyst is a reliance (overreliance?) on history over recent performance. I do my best not to be swayed by a good or bad run from someone with an established level of performance.

I think I was the slowest to raise Devonta Freeman in our weekly rankings this year, and I still tend to believe regression is coming, even if what I’ve seen on video can’t really pinpoint why. Colin Kaepernick has displayed the ability to be a top-flight quarterback in spades before; I choose to believe those skills don’t just disappear randomly, so I ranked him a dozen spots higher than anyone else two weeks ago, when he had a big game against the Giants.

I was wrong about Freeman; I was right about Kaepernick. I note good and bad games in a given week, but try really hard not to let them sway me each week when there’s five pounds of evidence on the other side.

That in mind, this is the space every week where I run through changes in players’ weekly FanDuel salaries. But whereas normally I look at a one-week move, a guy whose salary rises or falls based on one game, this week I’m looking at how salaries have changed since the start of the season. To whom has FanDuel given its higher salary seal of approval? What players is FanDuel still out on? Let’s dive in:

Philip Rivers ($8,000): Rivers came into the season as one of the second-tier quarterbacks; you didn’t pick him if you were shooting for gold at the position (that was Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck), but he wasn’t so cheap as to be a punt play. He was expensive, but not budget-breakingly so. Six weeks into the season, Rivers has put up 20-plus fantasy points in four of those weeks; the only other quarterbacks who can say that are Andy Dalton and Tom Brady. But because Rivers’ two bad weeks came in Weeks 2 and 3 (22 combined fantasy points), it soured the fantasy world on him, to the point that his salary fell to a season low. After 74 points in his last three weeks combined, his salary is climbing again, but at this point it’s still $100 below where it was to start the season. That seems low.

Sam Bradford ($7,700): Remember the preseason, when people had Bradford pegged as a Philadelphia star, and he was turning down extensions because he wasn’t being offered enough money? Remember when certain touts were ranking him top 12? Bradford was priced at $7,500 the first two weeks of the season. Six weeks in, he’s averaging 12.7 fantasy points a game, going over 17 only once and over 13 only twice. It’s been an awful Eagles tenure for Bradford, despite the team’s 3-3 record. And yet he’s $200 more now than Week 1? That’s weird, especially against a strong Carolina defense.

Lamar Miller ($6,700): Miller was in a steady salary fall with Joe Philbin as the Miami head coach, going from $7,300 in Week 1 down to $6,400 coming out of the team’s bye. It made sense; Miller had 131 rushing yards and no touchdowns total through the Dolphins’ first four games. It wasn’t all Miller’s fault, either; he only had 37 carries and had rushed for more than 4 yards per carry in two of the four games. So when he came out Sunday and had a season-high 19 carries for 113 yards and a score, well, it looked like the new coaching staff was finally going to use one of its best weapons. And yet, Miller’s salary only climbed $300 this week, to $6,700. That’s still $600 below where it was to start the season. Sure, maybe FanDuel wants to wait a week to make sure it’s for real, but if you believe this is Miller’s new normal as far as usage, he could be a discount.

Melvin Gordon ($6,500) and Danny Woodhead ($6,000): Gordon started his season at $7,100 in FanDuel, representative of his potential as one of the league’s highly touted rookies. Six weeks in, he has no touchdowns, no 100-yard games, four fumbles and a Week 6 benching. That explains why his salary has fallen $600 in that time. And sure, if Gordon stays on the pine, Branden Oliver will see his workload increase. But what’s up with Danny Woodhead’s salary? He hasn’t been great, but he’s gone for more than 100 yards twice, has two touchdowns and with FanDuel giving reception credit, Woodhead’s pass-catching keeps him valuable. And yet, that $6,000 price tag he has for Week 7? It’s identical to his Week 1 salary. You’d expect some change there, yeah?

Brandon Marshall ($8,200) and Eric Decker ($6,200): It’s been my favorite little factotum (not factoid) of late, but the only two wide receivers with nine or more fantasy points in every game played this season are teammates, and are Jets teammates to boot. Marshall has obviously been the more productive of the two, with 511 yards, four touchdowns and 11.5 fantasy points a game, which explains why his salary has gone up $800 from Week 1. But Decker needs some attention as well. Yes, it’s only 239 yards, and yes, he missed a game due to injury, but still four touchdowns, and 10.8 fantasy points a game has value in its own right. I’m not saying Decker should be as expensive as Marshall, but his salary has only climbed $200 since Week 1? That’s weird.

Kendall Wright ($5,700): Obviously, I don’t have any say in the FanDuel salaries myself, but from what I can tell, the worst time for a player to have a huge week is the week right before his bye. Almost without fail, a guy’s salary the week before his bye is his salary the week after. Wright has had two big weeks. After Week 1, his salary climbed $300. After Week 3, though, the Titans had a bye, and Wright’s salary didn’t change at all heading into Week 5 despite his 108 total yards and a touchdown. So, when Wright struggled again in Weeks 5 and 6 and his salary fell, he didn’t have any artificial heights to fall from. Now, he’s $100 lower than he was in Week 1, hasn’t had a big game in a month and might have Zach Mettenberger throwing to him in Week 7. OK then.

Kyle Rudolph ($5,000): In 2012, Rudolph played all 16 games and was decent, with nine touchdowns and almost 500 yards. Since then, he has seven touchdowns total, has missed 15 games to injury and only has one game in three seasons with double-digit fantasy points. He gets talked about like he’s a star tight end or close, but Rudolph is more of a when-you’re-desperate guy at the position with marginal-at-best upside. His salary was $5,300 to start the season, and other than a tiny spike after a Week 2 touchdown, it fell steadily to its current level, where it’s been for his last three games.