Fantasy football start/sit advice based on Week 7 NFL picks against the spread

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (+4.5) over Buffalo Bills

Then we send them a coach that has spent his entire week browsing Hostel World being sure to secure a place to live for whenever he's not allowed back on the plane. Next thing you know we'll be sending them the Lions and Chiefs.

The Jaguars have an entire analytics department that's supposed to be well ahead of any other team in forward thinking. We know this. We also know that teams in the Pacific time zone tend to cover fewer games the further they travel East (sleep and stuff). Jacksonville, however, apparently does not know this as they are scheduled to take the field five time zones away on only two days rest.

Forget the fact that Doug Martin has been the only runner to eclipse 100 yards against them or that Blake Bortles has back to back games with 300 yards and three touchdowns. Buffalo being wide awake as opposed to searching for pillows is a major cause for concern. Charles Clay has received 13 targets in two of his last three games without Percy Harvin and Sammy Watkins in the lineup, so that could spell another huge day of production for him.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-4) over New Orleans Saints

There have been certain performances that really set the bar for particular individuals and let the world know that they had arrived. Adrian Peterson's 296 yards against San Diego during his rookie year first comes to mind. Also see Brandon Marshall's 21 receptions against Indianapolis; Colin Kaepernick's 440 yards and four touchdowns against Green Bay in the playoffs; Shaun Alexander's five touchdowns during the first half of Sunday night football; Michael Vick walking into Lambeau in January and single-handedly knocking off a Brett Favre-led Packers squad (to all those under 23, yes, Vick was kinda good at one time); and Marshawn Lynch running over what seemed like 13 men at the time as the scrutinized 7-9 Seahawks showed everyone for one week at least that yes, they did in fact deserve to be playing in the postseason. Anyways, I say all that to note that Donte Moncrief will come of age this week against the Saints.

In what will likely close as the only total above 50 this week, there are more than enough reasons for each team to find success in every facet of offense. For Andrew Luck owners, New Orleans has allowed only one fewer point to opposing quarterbacks than the open door of the Baltimore secondary. The Saints are also allowing a league-high 6.4 yards per play and remain the only defense to allow more than 23 carries of 10 or more yards. For Drew Brees owners, the Colts have fortunately allowed three of the last four quarterbacks faced to pass for 300 yards and two touchdowns. It also helps that Ben Watson has come out of nowhere, scoring a touchdown in each of the last two games.

New York Jets (+8) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Though the Jets have simultaneously allowed the fewest points while forcing the most turnovers, this one appears to be inching toward the second highest scoring total of the Week 7 slate. For maybe the only time this season, I'll be fading Tom Brady for reasons outside of ownership percentage. Brandon LaFell is surely worth picking up, but will be better used in a week when he's not aligned across from either Darrelle Revis or Antonio Cromartie. And it certainly doesn't help that defenses have doubled Gronk in the last two matchups, limiting him to 10, 6, and 11 fantasy points in his last three games.

Unfortunately, I don't find this to be a fortuitous spot for Chris Ivory. He may trail Matt Forte for the rushing lead by only 47 yards despite having played two fewer games, but Bill Belichick has already made it known that "[defending the Jets offense] definitely starts with the running game and Ivory." That leaves Ryan Fitzpatrick to commandeer and match point for point with New England. The good news is that Fitzpatrick is one of only five quarterbacks this season to score at least 13 fantasy points in every game played (Brady, Tyrod Taylor, Aaron Rodgers, and Andy Dalton being the others). With Brandon Marshall having stacked four straight games with 100 yards receiving and Eric Decker having scored in every game played, win or lose, it could be a big day for the Jets offense.

MIAMI DOLPHINS (-4.5) over Houston Texans

Dan Campbell's nickname was Dan-tallica because he loved Metallica. His friends said he listened to nothing else.

— John McClain (@McClain_on_NFL) October 21, 2015

Dan-tallica!!! It's no wonder the Dolphins bought in after only one game. Lamar Miller, the clear beneficiary of the Dan-tallica era, received the second-most carries in his career just last week. But the Texans should continue to produce as long as they average 75 plays per game and that's where both Brian Hoyer and DeAndre Hopkins come in.

Since being named the starter, Hoyer has thrown seven touchdowns in his last three games. The Texans lead the league in passing attempts and should continue to do so even with a healthy Arian Foster roaming the backfield. Foster may have accumulated at least 23 touches in each of his last two games, but he's failed to rush for more than 60 yards in either. The fewest targets Hopkins has seen in any given week has been 11 and shouldn't change in the second game of the Dan-tallica tenure. And considering the assumed pace of play, it might be another opportunistic week to stack Jarvis Landry and the Dolphins defense.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) over WASHINGTON

Of course there is an entirely different option, and that would be to use only the Washington defense. I'm a bit skeptical seeing as their first two contests at home came against the stagnant attacks of the before-Dan-Campbell Miami Dolphins (2015 BC) and the St. Louis Rams prior to returning Todd Gurley, but for the first four weeks at least, no single rusher ran for more than 53 yards against them. Unfortunately, the last two weeks have seen Devonta Freeman and Chris Ivory combine to run for 299 yards and two touchdowns.

Of course, with Washington's bye only one week away, I can't help but consider this one of the very last times we'll see Cousins starting for the professional football team that plays in our nation's capital. Sweep Colt McCoy off those wires (in deeper leagues) and prepare for another 14 days of everyone pondering why Robert Griffin continues wearing that headset on the sideline.

Atlanta Falcons (-6) over TENNESSEE TITANS

Marcus Mariota or Zach Mettenberger. It doesn't matter.

The Titans have allowed 4.7 YPC despite having played the 16th, 22nd, 18th, 4th, and 30th rushing offenses. Forget Julio Jones, whose injury is clearly to blame for his recent decline in target percentage over the last three weeks (hasn't accounted for more than 30 percent of the Falcons targets since Week 3). Simply pay up for Devonta Freeman and get the hell out of the way.

ST. LOUIS RAMS (-6.5) over Cleveland Browns

DETROIT LIONS (+1.5) over Minnesota Vikings

if you listened to either the Bears or Lions broadcasts last week, you would think there was something more than two bad teams playing bad football taking place. A lot of people will go back to Matthew Stafford following his 300-yard, five touchdown performance, but that's the last thing you should do. In fact, a lot of Detroit's production still seems wonky enough to leave be. Theo Riddick has received 10 touches in consecutive games but good luck finding the right week to start him (though his salary is low enough to consider using if you're looking for a single flier). Ameer Abdullah finally accumulated 15 touches last week (no thanks to an additional 13 minutes of play) but once again fumbled (go figure) and mustered only 3.4 yards per carry. Even Lance Moore has five receptions and a touchdown in back to back contests, but, you know, he's Lance Moore.

Minnesota hasn't exactly held it together as of late either. Last week against the Chiefs, Adrian Peterson was held under 100 yards rushing for the second straight game despite having another outing with more than 20 carries. You can't exactly bench him, but his progress is certainly worth monitoring as long as Matt Asiata and their offensive line continue to struggle blocking. In other words, Stefon Diggs should be the only player on your radar.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-3.5) over Oakland Raiders

The only way to beat the Chargers is to find success on the ground against them and unfortunately, that's something the Raiders have yet to consistently do this season. Outside of his 139 yards against Cleveland in Week 3, Latavius Murray hasn't rushed for more than 65 yards. I wouldn't necessarily sell him, but his outlook (as well as Oakland as a whole) once again doesn't bode well considering San Diego has allowed the 3rd fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. Buy low on Amari Cooper and look ahead to next week.

NEW YORK GIANTS (-3.5) over Dallas Cowboys

Though I'm interested in Eli Manning and Odell Beckham, I really just want to spend the next few sentences tempering your expectations of Christine Michael. I understand that the unknown is exciting. Mystery, after all, could result in anything. For all we know, Michael could be the next Adrian Peterson, and we can only say that up until the time he receives his first carry as a starter come Sunday. But there are too many red flags surrounding this matchup for me to go out and spend a high waiver on him, let alone have exposure toward him on FanDuel. The Giants have allowed only one opposing running back to rush for more than 100 yards and even that didn't occur until last week. Just be careful where you start him. As much fun as it is to lust over his potential, we saw where Charcandrick West got you with that line of thinking last week.

Philadelphia Eagles (+3) over CAROLINA PANTHERS

Back in 2009, one of my longtime fantasy leagues that originally stemmed from high school set the hypothetical record for trades involving the same player. Mohamed Massaquoi was technically the leading wideout for a hapless Browns team that finished 5-11 that year. As the leading receiver on an abysmal team, however, he went out and played like it. Unfortunately, Massaquoi would show just enough promise each and every week to be shipped to the next team looking for a bye-week filler. "Eight targets and one catch? Good enough. Send him this way," Corey would say. "He was thrown at 13 times? Yeah, I'll take him, I guess," Sean replied the following week. And on and on it went. I tell that story to let you know that no team has been filled with more Mohamed Massaquoi's than the 2015 Carolina Panthers. Ted Ginn does just enough to warrant a roster spot while Jonathan Stewart is good for 20 carries and 10 yards per game. It's actually more impressive than anything. But, as long as Cam Newton and Greg Olsen remain hand in hand, the Panthers will move the ball and produce pleasant, albeit hard to watch numbers.

DeMarco Murray has received 25 touches in each of his last two games and is really the only Eagle that warrants consideration this week. With Sam Bradford being a disaster whether he's playing a respectable secondary or not, I can only imagine what his production will look like once Josh Norman and Co. are done with him.

ARIZONA CARDINALS (-8) over Baltimore Ravens

Last week, I wrote about avoiding Stafford and the Lions offense unless the line crept in their direction. By Sunday, Detroit, who was at one moment in time favored by a field goal, headed into Ford Field favored by nearly four points. The additional point meant only one thing: enough people a lot smarter than me thought the Lions would win outright. I toyed with the idea of stacking Stafford with Golden Tate, but eventually came to the conclusion that if anyone were to regress (and have a lower ownership), it would be Calvin Johnson. Johnson did fine, but it was still Tate who came back to Earth (for one game, at least), scoring 16 points and basically having no exposure in any direction. That alone was enough to teach me a crucial lesson for this week.

Since we have no idea which Cardinals receiver is going to explode, send Carson Palmer into war as the lone Arizona player in your lineup and don't worry about which way the wealth is spread. In fact, I'm so excited about "naked" Palmer that I'm bringing back a treasure a reader made for me just last season after my infatuation with the Cardinals quarterback reached uncomfortable bounds:

(Editor's Note: The Pittsburgh Steelers-Kansas City Chiefs line hadn't been posted at the time of this writing and therefore wasn't mentioned.)