FanDuel advice: Give yourself the best chance possible

"Shut Up, It Worked": The 2015 MLB Postseason

— Joe Sheehan (@joe_sheehan) October 18, 2015

• The only team giving up more points to opposing fantasy quarterbacks than the Saints is the Baltimore Ravens. And while the Ravens' opponent -- Carson Palmer -- has seen his production trend gradually downward of late, the Saints' -- Andrew Luck ($8,900) -- put up his best game in Week 6. He's healthy now, at home and, because of his early struggles, at a slight discount from what we'd expect Andrew Luck to be. That's an investment.
• Several Chargers are varying degrees of banged up. Antonio Gates is hurt. Keenan Allen and Stevie Johnson, too. And with Melvin Gordon's fumbles, the running back situation -- him, Danny Woodhead and Branden Oliver -- is a mess as well. I don't know which of those to use or not use. But I do feel comfortable saying that Philip Rivers ($8,000) will make the most of the pieces he does have in an appealing matchup.
• For the first couple weeks of the season, the Dallas Cowboys held opposing quarterbacks in check. And since then, it's been literally the worst defense in the game against those same guys. Yes, Eli Manning ($7,800) was one of those quarterbacks who struggled, but this just isn't a formidable opponent right now, and Manning in a second crack at the same unit should have much more success.

• People looking to save some money at quarterback might end up with Joe Flacco ($7,500). And with Steve Smith Sr. and Crockett Gillmore apparently healthy, it's easy to see why it might be an appealing matchup. Heck, there are teams that could even make for good matchups against the Arizona defense. But I have a hard time seeing how this Ravens team, with Smith the only realistic wide receiver option going against Patrick Peterson, makes any sense. One great receiver can work in some matchups. Not this one.
• It's easy to see Matthew Stafford ($7,400), after his big Week 6, as having turned the corner and returned back to his fantasy-productive self. And FanDuel appears to agree, giving Stafford a $500 salary bump coming out of that game against the Bears. But, you know, that was the Bears. And the Bears' defense. This week, it's the Vikings. And the Vikings' defense. Maybe Stafford is back, but he needs to prove it against someone competent before you invest.

• We just needed to see it. Returning from injury, Arian Foster ($8,600) was eased into his first game back, before going over 100 yards in his second. In his third, it was 100-plus yards and a touchdown. He's back. Use him. That's all.
• The only time the Browns have been successful against an opposing running back this year was in Week 2, when they faced the Titans, and ... well, it's the Titans. It's a bad run defense. This week, Cleveland faces the Rams, off a bye, with the now-established Todd Gurley ($7,400) at the helm? Considering value, he's my single favorite buy of the week.
• I just want to look at the season so far for Latavius Murray ($7,000). He faced Cincinnati in Week 1 and Denver in Week 5, two stout defenses who held him in check. The Raiders unexpectedly fell to the Bears, meaning there was more passing than anything else. Against the Ravens in Week 2 and the Browns in Week 3, though, Murray averaged 118 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown. Yes, any player will look good if you only take his good performances, but considering how bad the Chargers are against the run, this really ought to be another good Murray game.

• The easy argument to make for LeGarrette Blount ($6,800) is that the Patriots jump out to an early lead and use the grinder, no-fumble back to run the clock. It'll happen in several weeks. But there are too many problems with that argument this week: (a) The Jets are actually good this year, meaning New England might struggle to get that early lead; (b) There are certain teams against whom the Patriots just don't let off the gas pedal, even when the situation presents itself, and the Jets are one of those; and (c) The Jets are so good against the run that that strategy might not even work for grinding the clock. Bad week for Blount.
• A few days ago, it looked like the Cowboys were going to let Christine Michael ($5,600) carry the load as Joseph Randle ($6,800) has underwhelmed. Since, though, it's sounded more like a true split, with maybe a hot hand getting the big load. So you can't know with any real confidence which guy is going to get the most carries Sunday, and that's before considering that Darren McFadden ($6,000) is likely to remain the pass-catching back. Just stay away from this situation.

• No. 1 receivers have fared well against the Titans this year. T.Y. Hilton was good; Travis Benjamin was a monster. Sammy Watkins and Mike Evans missed their Tennessee games. But guys who are their team's No. 1 receivers do well against Tennessee, which has a competent defense but no single shut-down cornerback. That all bodes well for Julio Jones ($9,100), who appears to be back at full health.
• The party line on backup quarterbacks is that their No. 1 targets still get plenty of targets; it's the secondary and tertiary receivers who see their numbers fall off. Obviously, that didn't happen with Michael Vick at the helm for Pittsburgh. But the more we saw of Vick, the more it became clear he just wasn't competent. More or less, I'm ignoring the last few weeks of Steelers' receiving numbers now that Vick is out, and returning to the aforementioned party line, which bodes well for Antonio Brown ($8,300). Brown's salary has plummeted to secondary receiver level, but there will be a bump back this week with Landry Jones. And if somehow Ben Roethlisberger makes his return? Look out.
• Zach Mettenberger didn't do a lot of great things last year as a rookie starter. The one thing he did well was launch the ball deep. That would be good news for Justin Hunter if he, you know, did anything else. But Dorial Green-Beckham ($5,100) is a Hunter-esque guy with more upside (in fact, Green-Beckham's NFL.com draft profile named Hunter as the single best comp for the rookie). So if Marcus Mariota can't make it Sunday, Green-Beckham could be the guy to capitalize.

• You know what you don't want? A team's primary receiver going against the Colts and Vontae Davis. Sammy Watkins had no catches; Percy Harvin had 79 yards and a score on five catches. Eric Decker, not Brandon Marshall, performed for the Jets until Davis left with injury. He was hurt in Week 3, but it was Allen Hurns, not Allen Robinson, who crushed for Jacksonville in Week 4. Jaelen Strong had two Week 5 touchdowns. Danny Amendola went for more than 100 yards in Week 5. Davis is good at shutting down the No. 1 guys, but the rest of the Colts' defense isn't even comparable. That is good news for Willie Snead, but definitely bad tidings for Brandin Cooks ($6,700).
• In the War Room Thursday, I was asked a question about dynasty wide receivers, and I quickly ran back through last year's amazing rookie class. Odell Beckham Jr. is still amazing, but you know what? The rest of that list has disappointed. Kelvin Benjamin is out. Sammy Watkins can't stay healthy. Mike Evans has been bad. Cooks has struggled. The Allens in Jacksonville and Jarvis Landry in Miami have been okay, but that's about it. That applies as well to Jordan Matthews ($6,600), who had 24 fantasy points in Weeks 1 and 2, but has a total of 16 since. With a bad quarterback, against a good defense, steer clear.

• It's been disappointing for the big-name Travis Kelce ($6,000) since Week 1; he's averaged 5.6 fantasy points a game in that time, below what you'd expect for a guy regularly ranked in the position's top four. But with Jamaal Charles out and Jeremy Maclin probably out, and against a Steelers defense that has struggled mightily against opposing tight ends, this is the week for Kelce to re-break out.
• Speaking of injuries, Buffalo is just about out of players. Sammy Watkins and Percy Harvin are out. Karlos Williams too. Tyrod Taylor won't make his return. A backup quarterback and unreliable wide receivers should make for a big tight end day, boding well for Charles Clay ($5,500).

• I mentioned Thursday that my biggest strength and weakness as an analyst is a reliance on player's history over his recent performance. Gary Barnidge ($5,900) is in his eighth season as a nothing tight end before his ridiculously hot last month. But we've seen fluke butt-catches, and two-score-in-three-catch games, and performances against bad defenses. Sunday, the Browns play the Rams, and I just don't see it happening again.

• I have two defenses to discuss, but they're from one game, so let's just toss it together. The Washington defense ($4,400) gets to face a Tampa Bay offense that recently has run the ball far more successfully than it has passed, and Washington's run defense is its strength. Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay defense ($4,000) is even cheaper and gets to intercept Kirk Cousins as many times as it can. I'd prefer Tampa Bay to Washington, particularly for affordability, but it'll be a popular unit, so maybe Washington is a contrarian play.

• Bringing this close to full circle, at the top I advocated avoiding Joe Flacco because he has a reduced number of weapons against a good defense, and that's all true. The flip side, though, is that the Arizona defense ($5,100) is the highest-priced unit of the week, and one way or another, the Baltimore offense has held opposing fantasy defenses in check. Don't splurge on Arizona.