UFC 192 fight preview: Cormier vs. Gustafsson

It’s not really the fight or the fight card that anyone dreamed of, hoped for or planned but UFC 192: Cormier vs. Gustafsson is what we’ve got.

UFC Light heavyweight champion Daniel Cormier (16-1, 5-1 UFC) defends his title against Alexander Gustafsson (16-3, 8-3 UFC) tonight on pay per view live from the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. Cormier is 36-years-old, 5’11” and weighed in yesterday at the 205 pound LHW limit. Gustafsson is 28-years-old, 6’5” and weight in at 204 pounds.

The trouble started when essentially undefeated UFC light heavyweight champ Jon Jones was arrested for fleeing the scene of an accident earlier this year in New Mexico. Then the UFC stripped Jones of his title. That’s why we’re not getting the fight many hoped for, a rematch of Jones vs. Alexander Gustafsson.

Gustafsson, a rangy Swede kickboxer with solid defensive wrestling skills, gave Jones the toughest fight of his title run last year. Alas, since then Gus has been viciously knocked out by Anthony “Rumble” Johnson in front of a shocked Stockholm crowd in January.

Nevertheless, Gus is getting a title shot against Daniel Cormier, the man who now wears Jones’ title belt. Cormier claimed the title by submitting Rumble Johnson in the third round of their UFC 187 title tilt in May.

The slapped together aspect of this fight, featuring as it does a title challenger coming in off not just a loss, but an ass-whipping, and a champion that few view as the best in the division might explain the lack of promotional heat behind the fight.

Especially now that Jon Jones has pled guilty and been sentenced to probation. That means the winner of Cormier vs. Gustafsson will likely head into the next title defense as an underdog against the man almost universally viewed as the best 205 pound fighter on the planet.

But that’s enough about that, what about the fight itself?

Stylistically it figures to be Cormier’s fight to lose. The champ is favored by most odds in the -240 to -300 range. As a former Olympic wrestler he should be able to put the lanky kickboxer on his back and dominate from top position.

But not so fast. Gustafsson managed to limit Jon Jones to a single take down in 11 attempts at their UFC 165 bout. And Jones showed himself to be the better MMA wrestler than Cormier by a 3-to-1 margin in their UFC 182 bout. Not that MMA math works like that.

If Cormier can’t take Gustafsson down it becomes a very interesting fight indeed as Gus has a six inch reach advantage and is by any measure the more feared kickboxer. He averages 4 significant strikes per minute compared to DC’s 3.6. He also has 10 KO’s compared to Cormier’s 6.

We’ll find out tonight.