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FanDuel advice: The virtues of the stack
Pairing (or more-than-pairing) players can give you double the chance at success.
Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to my weekly look at what I see as the good and bad FanDuel matchups. I go through and pick a few guys at each position I like and don’t like for that week’s FanDuel games.
Each week, I bring up my rankings spreadsheet and I search for names. When I pick someone -- say, Mark Ingram this week -- I then go out and erase all his teammates from my spreadsheet. Drew Brees, Benjamin Watson, whatever, I erase them all.
That means that in a typical week, I have 21 different teams represented in this space. I do that just to provide a cross-section of entries, so I’m not like “Hey, Tom Brady, Dion Lewis, Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski!” The benefits of this approach is that I don’t put all my advice eggs in one basket.
The downside, though, is that anyone who follows my advice ignores the stack.
The stack, for the uninitiated, can be the FanDuel player’s best friend. At the very least, every quarterback I use in FanDuel will be paired with one of his primary targets (Brady with Gronkowski, Eli Manning with Odell Beckham Jr., heck, Matthew Stafford with Theo Riddick). Pairing a running back with his defense is also a common tactic.
But there are times you can go all out. New England doesn’t play San Francisco this year, but if that game did happen, the mass stack I mentioned earlier -- Brady, Lewis, Edelman, Gronkowski -- would absolutely be on the table. Heck, Thursday night, that stack would have had you going places.
FanDuel lets you use up to four players from a single team in a lineup. (I’ve always been curious why it caps at four. If you want to use nine Patriots, that seems more dumb than smart, but whatever.) Four might be too much, but three, two.
Below, I highlight one guy on a team, and no others. It’s to cover my bases. But know that, for every guy I list, there’s a teammate (or a partnered defense) who could be paired with that guy for even more use.
On to the list:
Quarterbacks
Good situations
- As a Colts fan, this season has suuuucked. My favorite team is 3-4, with pieces that aren't going together. They've made plays that have had them mocked for weeks, and have fallen behind bad teams early. That they are still in first place in the saddest of all possible divisions is nice, sure, but it's not exactly making me feel good about the team. But the very mild bright spot is that, since returning from injury, at the very least, Andrew Luck ($8,800) has gotten his numbers. He's put up 50 fantasy points combined in the last two weeks despite losses, and he's trustworthy enough to keep doing the same.
- Early in the season, the Vikings were really good against opposing fantasy quarterbacks, holding them to 13 fantasy points a game through Week 4. Since their bye, though, things have cooled; Alex Smith and Matthew Stafford averaged 17 per game against the Vikings. Meanwhile, since his injury, Jay Cutler ($7,300) hasn't put up fewer than 17 points in a game. He has his full complement of weapons healthy, has had a week off and he's got a home game. Cutler's a sneaky mid-range play.
- Speaking of sneaky, one of the keys to FanDuel is, of course, finding guys who can be successful. But the second layer of that is to find guys who are surprisingly successful. When Todd Gurley is great, but is on everyone's roster, he's only so helpful, because you aren't separating yourself. Enter Nick Foles ($6,200). Ultimately, the best way to describe Foles is that he's bad, with only two games of more than 10 fantasy points all year, and none in almost a month. But with Gurley distracting defenses, Tavon Austin making a name for himself and a San Francisco defense that has made a lot of quarterbacks look good, Foles is a cheap play with some upside that almost nobody will be using this week.
Bad situations
- We're conditioned to look at guys over a full season, because those are how the numbers are often presented to us. Small sample biases are something to watch out for, obviously. But football isn't baseball. Guys wear down in a hurry over a football season, and numbers deteriorating over time is (or at least can be) a definite sign. Carson Palmer ($8,100) turns 36 in December, has played 16 games once since 2010 and after 20-plus fantasy points Weeks 1 and 2, he hasn't reached that since. He's still good, but maybe not $8,100 good.
- Matt Ryan ($8,000) is tempting this week, in a home game against a bad Tampa Bay defense. The flip side of that is he's been someone you'd want in FanDuel exactly once all season. And there's little reason to think this game will be anything other than a blowout, which could lead to a heavier rushing attack than passing. Ryan is a strong choice for a regular football quarterback this week, but I don't see a lot of fantasy production this time around.
Running backs
Good situations
- I believe I more than made the case for Mark Ingram ($8,000) in this week's PPR running back rankings, but I'll reiterate some of it here: The only running back who has clearly been better than Ingram all year is Devonta Freeman. You want to toss in Le'Veon Bell and Todd Gurley, I'm cool with that. And honestly, that's it, and even that list might be too long. He's been ridiculously strong, and he's caught enough passes to give him plenty of FanDuel value, as well.
- Only two teams have allowed fewer fantasy points per game to running backs than the Steelers, who have allowed only one rushing touchdown all year. That doesn't bode well for Jeremy Hill. The flip side is that the Steelers have faced two true pass-catching backs -- Dion Lewis in Week 1 and Danny Woodhead in Week 5 -- and both had strong games. So, who that does bode well for is Giovani Bernard ($6,700).
- Arian Foster is done for the year. And Alfred Blue ($6,500) is not Arian Foster. But in the past two years of Foster fill-in time, Blue has had his moments, including three carries for 139 yards and a touchdown in the last Foster-free game. Chris Polk and Jonathan Grimes certainly aren't the answer. Blue is high-risk, somewhat high-reward as a contrarian option.
Bad situations
- The Seattle offensive line is bad, as was forecast in the preseason by, well, me. That's led to a yards-per-carry average of 3.7 for Marshawn Lynch ($8,300). Admittedly, that's improved a bit of late, since getting healthy, but still, this isn't the Marshawn Lynch of old. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have struggled against running backs, but that's almost entirely on the heels of (a) Devonta Freeman and (b) that one big play by C.J. Spiller, which at some point I'll have to stop referencing. Point is, Dallas is actually competent against running backs. If you're splurging, don't splurge on Lynch.
- We have two games of history on Charcandrick West ($6,600), starting running back. That's one good game, one bad one. Yes, the good game was the more recent of his two outings, and in a season-long league, I'd be fine tossing West out there, But we're two weeks removed from nine carries for 33 yards and a lost fumble. I'm not putting a week of money on that.
Wide receivers
Good situations
- First five weeks for Calvin Johnson ($8,600): 33 fantasy points. Last two weeks: 36 fantasy points. The Chiefs have been awful against opposing wide receivers this year, with 12 touchdowns allowed in seven games. They're the only team allowing more than 30 points per game to the position. This one isn't complicated.
- It's easy to shy away from Demaryius Thomas ($8,100) and Emmanuel Sanders ($7,800), given the Broncos' offensive problems. Except for the fact that, one way or another, they have gotten their numbers. Between the two, that's 12 player-weeks, and at least six fantasy points in 11 of them, at least five in all of them. Avoid Peyton Manning, avoid Owen Daniels, avoid the running backs. The receivers do what they do.
- One of the ways I write this piece each week is to bring up our SB Nation position rankings and see where I differ from my peers, and wonder if I can defend that difference. Well, I have Stefon Diggs ($6,700) as a top-10 receiver this week, and that's well above my buddies. In three games played, he's averaged six catches, nine targets, 108 yards. He scored his first touchdown last week, and this week plays the Bears, who have allowed monster games to wide receivers ridiculously often. Diggs is a top-10 play with a salary that does not align with that status.
Bad situations
- A week ago, I was the highest on Antonio Brown ($8,400), under the thinking that a new backup would want to throw to his best weapon as often as possible. Well, this week, I'm the lowest on him, under the thinking that, while Ben Roethlisberger appears likely to make his grand return, he's not going to be at 100 percent. Brown's performance just won't match his salary.
- Amari Cooper ($7,500) has been incredible as a rookie. Like, Odell Beckham Jr. Last Year Doing Stuff-level incredible. If I'm in a full season league, he's in my lineup every week, and I feel good about it. But even a strong receiver looks less appealing going up against Darrelle Revis this week. I think Cooper is matchup-proof, or as close to it as a receiver gets, but I won't stake my weekly money on that.
Tight ends
Good situations
- The Seattle defense has been strong in recent years, of course, but the one thing it has struggled against is the tight end. That's continued into this year, with only the Raiders allowing more points per game to the position. Jason Witten ($5,500) wasn't very productive while Brandon Weeden was at quarterback, but in his first game with Matt Cassel, he had his best game since Week 1. Witten's a fine option this week.
- Okay, if we're talking total dart throws -- as in, "I've spent all the rest of my money and love my roster" -- there is a starting tight end facing the league's friendliest defense to tight ends who is priced at a crazy low rate. Okay, it's Jeff Cumberland ($4,600), and he has three catches for 26 yards on the season, so this is no sure thing, but when you're diving this deep, he has as much potential as anyone at that level.
Bad situation
- In my mind, when I see Larry Donnell ($5,100), I see the guy who was reasonably productive a year ago. Heck, by this point in 2014, he had two games of 80-plus receiving yards and four touchdowns under his belt. Since the end of October, though -- a full year now -- Donnell hasn't gone over 60 yards in a game. This season, he hasn't even seen 40. He's getting looks -- almost six targets a game -- but they aren't leading to any sort of accumulation. He's too expensive.
Defense/special teams
Good situations
- I think everyone has been cured of "see a defense facing Denver, and look elsewhere." Only six teams have allowed more fantasy points to opposing defenses than the Broncos, despite Denver having yet to face one of the league's stronger units. The only defense Denver has played so far that currently ranks in the league's top 17 is Minnesota. Well, the Green Bay defense ($4,800) is ranked seventh, and gets that Denver matchup.
- Up top, I pointed out that Andrew Luck gets his numbers every week, one way or another. And that much is true. But he's also been turnover-prone, with nine interceptions and a lost fumble in five games. The Colts have allowed 6.3 fantasy points per game to defenses this year. Take out Matt Hasselbeck's games, and that number rises to 7.2. The Carolina defense ($4,800) should be good to go.
Bad situation
- I didn't think I'd even bother pointing this out this week, but then I saw our weekly defense/special teams rankings, where I didn't rank the San Diego defense ($4,400) in my top 25 at all, only for my buddies in rankings to rank them 21st, 21st, 19th and 12th. I don't get that, but I guess I need to make the anti-Chargers argument, in case y'all are thinking like my co-rankers. The Chargers defense has put up 15 fantasy points this season. Total. The unit has forced seven turnovers all season -- three since Week 2, none since Week 5. Meanwhile, even with offensive contributors going in and out like crazy, the Ravens have allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses. I can't think of a reason to use San Diego this week.
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