FanDuel advice: Steady salaries have meaning, too

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It’s no real secret that setting FanDuel prices is more or less like setting a betting line for a game. Bookmakers aren’t saying a particular team will win by three or three and a half or whatever; they are merely saying that that is the break-even point where the betting public will put down a close amount of money on both sides.

The difference can be subtle, even negligible sometimes. The wisdom of the crowd is a known phenomenon and will often yield results close enough to the right answer as makes no difference. Sometimes, though — a super popular team like the Packers or Cowboys plays a relatively anonymous Jaguars or something — the line will reflect fandom more so than a score projection.

There’s some of that in FanDuel. Russell Wilson is a better fantasy option than Philip Rivers most weeks, sure, but he’s also more popular, and both things factor into Wilson being $700 more expensive than Rivers this week.

Prices (and specifically, prices over time) also tell you FanDuel’s opinion. A guy has a big week and his salary stays the same? FanDuel is calling him a fluke. A guy struggles but gets more expensive? FanDuel sees reason for hope.

Each week here, I’m looking at price fluctuation and trying to see what we can glean from it. Heading into Week 5, sometimes the biggest change is no change at all.

Peyton Manning (holding firm at $8,200 each of the last three weeks): Manning had a big Week 2, with 21.24 fantasy points (FanDuel scoring). His salary for the next week was $8,200, and his production fell off, but just a bit, putting up 19.86 points. Well, in Week 4, his salary remained the same, and he fell off in a big way, with only 10.32 points in an underwhelming Broncos victory. Heading into a Week 5 game at Oakland, then, after reduced production two weeks in a row, Manning’s salary is ... $8,200. FanDuel either believes in Peyton Manning, or at least believes that the public believes in Peyton Manning.

Sam Bradford (up from $7,100 in Week 4 to $7,500 in Week 5): Everyone was gaga over Bradford when he joined the Eagles. That offense, after all, turned Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez into strong fantasy players; why not Bradford? My argument was that the offense required a quarterback at least be able to throw deep a little, which Bradford has never shown the ability to do, but whatever. His salary started at $7,500, fair for what he was. After some seriously rough games the first few weeks, it fell all the way to $7,100, but after a big Week 4 at Washington, it’s right back to $7,500 again. Is one game against a rough Washington secondary enough to erase all the black marks we saw in Bradford early? FanDuel appears to think so.

Doug Martin ($6,400 last week, $6,400 this week): Martin’s strong preseason, and frankly the fact that hope never really dies, had him as an appealing sleeper in full-season leagues. His FanDuel price only marginally corresponded, as he opened the season at $6,900. He didn’t fulfill that promise, averaging 6.4 FanDuel points a game the first three weeks and seeing his salary drop $500. Then he showed up in Week 4, with 143 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown. He had 22.8 points, more than his season total to that point. After that, and as he is about to face Jacksonville, his salary didn’t change at all. FanDuel is skeptical.

Randall Cobb ($8,200 for four weeks in a row): Cobb had his worst game of the season in Week 4, with only 44 yards and no scores. It came after one of the season’s best overall games by anyone, as he scored three times and put up 31.8 fantasy points. Before that, it was a middle ground game — good, not fantastic, helpful. After none of those games did Cobb’s salary move. The game has more or less decided Cobb’s value is locked in, so long as he’s healthy.

Heath Miller ($5,500 last week, same this week): After a week with an underwhelming Michael Vick at the helm, and with Martavis Bryant set to make his 2015 debut, Antonio Brown’s salary fell by $300 and Markus Wheaton’s fell by $200. Miller’s, though, stayed steady, and it stayed above other nominally productive tight ends like Gary Barnidge, Coby Fleener and Larry Donnell. This despite Miller catching one pass for one yard in Vick’s first start. FanDuel thinks the Vick-Bryant duo hurts the wide receivers, but for some reason it thinks Miller will be fine. It’s a curious decision.