It’s time to find out what the Packers and Broncos really are

Titanic matchups between elite offenses and elite defenses sound great, but they don’t always live up to the hype. The classic example is the 2014 Super Bowl, when the highest scoring team in NFL history met arguably one of the league’s all-time great defenses. The game was a laugher. The Seattle Seahawks dominated the Denver Broncos from the opening kickoff, holding Peyton Manning and company to 306 yards while forcing four turnovers in a 43-8 win.

Assuming one side of the matchup doesn’t cave like Denver did, there’s also the chance that those colossal forces simply neutralize each other. As an example (and to give Manning his due), the 2007 Super Bowl between the Indianapolis Colts and the Chicago Bears pitted the No. 1 offense and No. 2 defense by DVOA, respectively. The Colts’ 29-17 win hinged little on the ballyhooed matchups, however. Manning was relatively pedestrian against a marquee secondary, but running back Dominic Rhodes’ 113 yards on 21 carries was more than good enough to outpace a Rex Grossman offense.

So, sure, get excited about Sunday Night Football when the 6-0 Green Bay Packers and the league’s fourth-best offensive by DVOA visits the 6-0 Denver Broncos and the league’s top defense. Aaron Rodgers against the Broncos’ pass rushers could be screaming fun, but don’t be surprised if the game’s less heralded units define the outcome.

As we know from the past, the strength of a team’s supposed weaknesses has a significant bearing on its championship viability. When the Packers and the Broncos face each other Sunday, we’ll get our best look yet at how good these two potentially great teams are.

The winner of this game will be a Super Bowl favorite. If you’re 7-0, that’s probably assumed, but there’s precedent, too. The last two times that two 6-0 teams squared off, the winner advance to the Super Bowl. In 2007, the 8-0 (and eventually 18-0) New England Patriots beat the 7-0 Indianapolis Colts, 24-20. In 1973, the 6-0 Minnesota Vikings beat the 6-0 Los Angeles Rams, 10-9. Both victors went on to lose in the title game, but still. 7-0 is a key figure:

Think of the game as a litmus test. The Packers have yet to beat a team that is above .500 this season. The Broncos can say they beat the 4-2 Vikings, but that’s it as far as what appear to be quality wins before the halfway mark of the season. And while Denver’s defense has indeed been impressive, it has yet to face an offense better than 13th by DVOA.

It isn’t easy to win in the NFL no matter the competition. Perhaps no professional sports league in the world is as stricken by parity. But as far as undefeated resumes go, Green Bay and Denver are relatively pedestrian.

The Broncos’ weaknesses are plain at this point. They rank 30th in total offense, 23rd in passing, 30th in rushing and dead last in offensive DVOA. The offensive line has lost two left tackles, a years-long drought on running backs continues and, most crushingly, time appears to have finally caught up to Manning. The Packers are roughly field goal favorites over the Broncos in Denver, and the shakiness of the Broncos’ offense may be the primary reason why.

The Packers don’t have a glaring deficiency. The defense is seventh in defensive DVOA, only slightly lagging behind the offense. The numbers may be misleading, however. The Packers haven’t faced a deficit more than four points this season, and haven’t trailed since Week 2. By constantly playing with a lead, they haven’t been tested much at all on the ground. Despite giving up 4.7 yards per carry -- the sixth-worst average in the league -- the Packers are facing just over 25 carries a game -- the 12th-fewest. The Broncos’ defense may be able to keep the contest close enough to allow the offense to ride its running game.

The Packers’ offense, meanwhile, is keyed on Rodgers, and rightfully so -- he has been superb this season. But it may be instructive that he struggled against St. Louis, the only other defense he has faced that’s comparable to Denver’s. The Rams didn’t get a ton of pressure on Rodgers, but the threat itself might have shaken him into his worst performance of the season, in which he threw his only two interceptions of the season.

If Rodgers struggles, it’s unclear whether the running game or his receiving corps is good enough to bail him out. The proof may come Sunday night, when, stripped of what they do best, we found out what both teams really are.