FanDuel advice: Emotion and intelligence

That's the wrinkle in DFS. I'm a Colts fan (plus a handful of other players — Alshon Jeffery, Alfred Morris, Jeremy Maclin, Delanie Walker, Eli Manning, etc. Kyle Orton in days gone by [miss you buddy!]), and I almost always give my favorite players a second look when picking a lineup. Sometimes, I'm particularly tempted.

• Fantasy production isn't binary, but if you break down the season for Aaron Rodgers ($9,200) into good and bad outcomes, he's had three bad ones: at San Francisco, vs. St. Louis and at Denver. That's the best and second-best defenses in the league against opposing fantasy quarterbacks, plus a San Francisco unit that, when it's at home, holds quarterbacks to 13.4 fantasy points a game ... or a number that would be fourth-best. This week, Rodgers gets a home game against a Lions team that has made some very mediocre quarterbacks look outstanding. He'll be elite.
• Okay, apropos of nothing, but the Giants play the Patriots every four years because of the schedule, and each of the last two times (2007, 2011), they've ended up in a Super Bowl rematch. They play each other this year too, meaning ... I don't know, Bill Simmons is probably in a fetal position somewhere. Anyway, Eli Manning ($7,400) is priced in the middle range, and has had his downs this year, but he has as much upside as just about any quarterback, and this is a game where New York will have to succeed through the air to keep up.
• I broke down why I kinda-sorta-despite-myself like Kirk Cousins ($6,500) this week in Friday's piece, but the short version is this: Washington faces New Orleans this week. New Orleans turns every quarterback it faces into a fantasy monster. Take and enjoy.

• The high-water mark for Russell Wilson ($7,600) this season was Week 2, when he put up (in standard scoring) 21 fantasy points. He's averaging 15 fantasy points a game. For someone priced down at the bottom tier of starters — Nick Foles or Alex Smith or something — sure, that's something, because you're saving some money there. But Wilson is the ninth priciest quarterback this week. And to top it all off, he faces a stout Arizona defense. Stay far away.
• Note my Kirk Cousins point above? The corollary is that quarterbacks coming off of a monster game against the Saints haven't necessarily turned the corner; maybe they've just played the Saints for a week. Marcus Mariota ($7,300) has a bright future, but I don't think a game against the Panthers is the time to buy in. (To say nothing of my point last week against using guys coming off of a stud game.)

• Combined, the top two Patriots running backs — LeGarrette Blount ($6,900) and Dion Lewis — have been a two-headed monster this year, with one or the other (or both) putting up double-digit fantasy points in every game except that Week 7 game where Lewis was hurt and Blount had only three carries. Well, Lewis is done for the year now, and while Blount obviously won't absorb all the work Lewis was doing, he is going to be doing a lot more. He moves into the upper echelon of the RB rankings going forward.
• In Houston's first game post-Arian Foster two weeks ago, Alfred Blue ($5,900) got 19 looks (carries plus targets) compared to Chris Polk's 10. In the last game before Foster's return from injury, Blue had 31 touches, Polk had five, Jonathan Grimes had six. I don't think Blue is that good, but he is going to be the team's lead ball-carrier, and it won't be that close, and that has good value in itself.
• I alluded to this play in Friday's piece. Go with Joique Bell ($5,200) this week. First, he's crazy cheap. Second, Ameer Abdullah is bad, and Theo Riddick is not much of a runner. Yes, I was on the Bell hype train to start the season, and that particular pick has crashed and burned, but with the benefit of hindsight, we can all say Bell just wasn't healthy early, averaging 1.1 yards per carry through three weeks. After several weeks lost to injury, Bell has been healthy the last two games, averaging 7.7 yards per carry (in limited work) in his last two. He's the best running back the Lions have, and his work will increase. (There have been "Abdullah's work will increase" rumors this week, and I think they're flat bunk. He's just not that good.)

• I took a bit of flak last week for recommending against Darren McFadden, who went out and ran for 117 yards against what I touted as a strong Philadelphia run defense. And that's fair — even without a score, 117 yards is 117 yards, and I'm chalking that up as a wrong call. Of course, I did that in a piece on regular fantasy advice, not FanDuel, and in FanDuel I'm fine with the call. You want touchdowns from your running back. The only running back who has scored on the Philadelphia defense all season is Mike Tolbert, and he is just unlike any other running back in the game. Lamar Miller ($7,200) might accumulate yardage. In a 50/50 or what-have-you, he's fine. But for a tournament, you want touchdowns. And Miller isn't likely to do that.
• I ranked Doug Martin ($6,700) reasonably well this week despite an awful Week 9 that included a fumble, 2.8 yards per carry, only two fantasy points and a late game that went to Charles Sims. In fact, his fantasy production has dropped for four straight games. It's possible he's tiring, it's possible his hot streak was a fluke. But I ranked him well, and in season-long fantasy I'd still be using him. FanDuel isn't season-long fantasy, and you should wait and see if Martin recovers before investing again.

• It's not just that the Ravens are the second-worst team in the league against opposing fantasy wide receivers. It's not just that Allen Hurns is banged up and won't be at 100 percent even if he does play Sunday. It's not just that the Jaguars have increased their points per game precipitously as the season has gone on (15.5 a game in their first four games; 27 in the last four). It's not just that Allen Robinson ($7,500) has put up 17.5 fantasy points a game in those last four games. It's ... okay, that last one might be enough of an argument, actually, even if you ignore all the first few.
• I feel like I've been alone here, but Tavon Austin ($6,000) has only seen his usage rise. I went through the finer points in last week's Start/Sit, but those trends only continued in Week 8. The Bears aren't a strong enough defense to really focus on more than one prime weapon, and Todd Gurley is going to draw all the focus. Austin could thrive.
• This isn't complicated. The Jaguars' pass defense was bad early in the season, and has been hideous since Week 5 (30.3 fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers per game). Kamar Aiken ($5,400) is the closest thing the Ravens have to a competent wide receiver right now. And he's crazy cheap.

• Maybe Alshon Jeffery ($7,600) plays at St. Louis this weekend, but with his late-week groin issues, he's worrisome. Maybe Eddie Royal ($4,900) plays, but his knee isn't getting better and that looks unlikely. And maybe Marquess Wilson ($5,300) has the team's receiver gig all to himself this weekend. But if Jeffery plays, if Royal plays, if Wilson is on his own, the truth is still that the Bears play the Rams Sunday, a Rams team that has allowed 19 fantasy points to opposing wide receivers total in the last three weeks. No thanks.
• The easy, lazy narrative is that the likely return of Josh McCown to the Cleveland lineup should mean good things for Travis Benjamin ($5,700), who averaged almost 13 fantasy points a game through Week 6. Of course, McCown played Weeks 7 and 8, when Benjamin put up two fantasy points per game, so Johnny Manziel can only be "blamed" for Benjamin's two in Week 9. Two points in three straight games does not bode well.

• When looking for teams that are good or bad against running backs or wide receivers, you can look at points allowed and get at least a thumbnail look at the situation. That's not true for tight ends, where there is a bigger gap between good and bad single players than there is at the other positions. Case in point: The Texans are middle-of-the-road against tight ends. Except that the game where the team's numbers are good came against Tampa Bay (without Austin Seferian-Jenkins), Atlanta (Jacob Tamme is meh at best), Indianapolis (Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen never produce when they're both on the field) and Miami (Jordan Cameron can't stay healthy). In games against Travis Kelce, Greg Olsen, Julius Thomas and Delanie Walker, Houston has allowed 12 fantasy points a game. Tyler Eifert ($6,200) faces Houston this week.
• And then there's the counter to my above paragraph, which is that, even as Oakland has improved against tight ends by yardage, the team still allows touchdowns to the position (nine in eight games, only one game without any). Kyle Rudolph ($4,700) hasn't done much this season, but against Oakland, even dodgy tight ends deserve a longer look.

• Maybe the big game for last week for Owen Daniels ($5,100) was because Vernon Davis is now in the fold in Denver and he wanted to show something. That doesn't really hold up, though. And even if it did, Davis is there now, and his role is only going to increase. Even with an injury possible hindering Emmanuel Sanders, Daniels, whose salary is at its highest point since Week 1, is unlikely to repeat last week's huge game.

• A year ago, the Seahawks allowed 3.7 fantasy points a game to opposing defenses. Only five teams were better. This year, the team, with largely the same position players but a much inferior offensive line, is allowing 8.5 per game. Only six teams are worse. When you see a team is playing Seattle, it looks intimidating, but that isn't reality. The Arizona defense ($4,700) doesn't need the help, but it gets it anyway.
• I got several questions over the week as to why I ranked the Kansas City defense ($4,300) well. But the unit has turned it around after an awful Week 3-4 stretch, with 43 fantasy points in its last four games; only Denver, Philadelphia and St. Louis have scored more. The Denver offense has improved of late, but the running game still isn't special, and Emmanuel Sanders isn't anywhere near 100 percent. Kansas City is a sneaky play.

• The Philadelphia defense ($4,700) has been really good of late. This week, it draws Miami, which has going for it a whole host of above-average weapons with no superstar. It's not a bad outlook at all. Here's the counter: Miami appears to be a team that thrives against sub-par opponents but struggles against good ones. Philadelphia, at 4-4, is not a special team. At the same price as that Arizona defense mentioned above, there's just no reason to pick Philadelphia.