NFL survivor pool strategy, Week 11: The teams you were saving? Keep saving them

OK, confession? I've been out of my 2015 NFL survivor pool since Week 4. Arizona was 3-0, St. Louis' quarterback was Nick Foles, it made sense, right?

It didn't work out. And, double confession, I was in two survivor pools, and I got eliminated in the other one in Week 2 (stupid Ravens). Point is, success in a survivor pool is more art than science.

That said, look, if you made it through Week 2, and Week 4, and the Packers, Bengals, Eagles and Broncos last week, friend, you are an artist and a scientist. Or a wizard. It's been a crazy season for survivor pools, and if you've made it this far, John Daigle and I are here to at least nudge you forward.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jags started 1-5. But they've won two of three. In Weeks 1-4, they averaged 15.5 points a game; they've averaged 26 points a game since. Meanwhile, take out the game they played against the Saints in Week 9 (against an incredibly bad defense), and the Titans haven't gone above 13 points since Week 3. In fact, the Titans have put up 14 or fewer points six times in nine games. This is an awful offense, and Jacksonville has a reasonable offense, if not an outright good one. Jacksonville, in a home game, against one of the league's worst offenses, is a good option. And when the heck else would you use Jacksonville in a survivor pool? -- DK

Kansas City Chiefs

When a team struggles early in the season, it colors our impression for the full year. The Chiefs beat a terrible Texans team in Week 1, then rolled off five straight losses. In their defense, those losses were against Denver, Green Bay, Cincinnati, Chicago and Minnesota. That's four playoff teams and the Bears, who are better than anyone really realized. Since then, Kansas City has, largely anonymously, rolled off three straight wins against Pittsburgh, Detroit and Denver. It's a better team than it was, playing a road game at San Diego, who has virtually no home-field advantage. Meanwhile, the Chargers are just about out of healthy players. - DK

This isn't one of those instances where it's suggested we recommend a sleeper and I grab the lowest hanging fruit. I honestly don't have a clue whether Chicago qualifies or not. Whatever the case, the Bears are more than applicable to knock off the Denver Broncos at home. For starters, Jay Cutler threw multiple interceptions in seven games last season. This year, he's averted that feat completely. It wouldn't be too shocking to see the presence of a quarterback that can move outside of the pocket without turning into dust open running lanes for Denver, but the infinite ceiling of what we don't know can only be that for so long. Brock Osweiler is about to become more than just a preseason stat and I'm not entirely sure Soldier Field is the best place to embark on the journey. One thing's for sure: With this being the final year of his contract, we'll either be watching the end or the beginning of the 2015 Broncos. No thanks. -- JD

Case Keenum is playing in a professional football game. - JD

New England Patriots

The Patriots rolled over on the Bills in Week 2, in a 40-32 game that wasn't that close. These are different Patriots, though; the team is just about out of offensive lineman and has lost Dion Lewis and Julian Edelman for the foreseeable future. For Buffalo, LeSean McCoy appears to be at full strength, and Sammy Watkins is moving in the same direction. The Patriots still have to be favored over the Bills, but if you've waited this long to use them, wait another week or two. This one doesn't look so great. - DK

The argument in favor of the Broncos is that Brock Osweiler can't reasonably be worse than the version of Peyton Manning we've had in 2015, and that version of Manning got the team to 7-0 before it all caught up with him. It's compelling, honestly. Osweiler looked competent replacing Manning last week, and a team with the offensive weapons Denver has, and the incredible defense on the other side, should win a handful of games with me at quarterback. Unfortunately, a defense that hadn't allowed more than 24 through Week 8 has allowed 27 and 29 the last two weeks (to be fair, some of that is on Manning). Meanwhile, the Bears started 0-3, but have gone 4-2 since and aren't actually a bad team. Sit on Denver one more week, let's see how Osweiler does. -- DK

Seattle Seahawks

Of course you're going to pick Seattle if you're fortunate enough to still have that bullet available. This is merely meant as an advisory. Ask anyone who rode the Seahawks earlier in the year and they'll all tell you the same thing. In the end, picking Seattle in 2015 feels a lot like drafting Michael Vick in your fantasy leagues circa 2010. Stay as far away from the action as humanly possible. Only look at the results. After all, the Legion of Boom has allowed zero offensive touchdowns in their four wins this year, but that hides the fact that they've only beaten the murderer's row of Jimmy Clausen, Matthew Stafford, Colin Kaepernick and Matt Cassel. This has 13-0 with the obligatory 12 forced passes to Jimmy Graham written all over it. -- JD

The last time the Raiders were favored on the road, Adrian Peterson ran for 203 yards. Fool me once ... -- JD