FanDuel advice: Salary changes deep into the year

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Early in the NFL season, prices in the FanDuel can swing wildly. We learn things, jobs and roles come into focus, and suddenly a guy is way more or less expensive than he once was.

Devonta Freeman was $6,500 in Week 3, then $7,200 in Week 4, rising all the way to Week 8’s $9,100, as he looked stronger and stronger and we figured out what we were seeing with him. On the flip side, Joique Bell started the season looking reasonably relevant in the Detroit offense, priced at $6,500. Within three weeks, it became clear that Bell wasn’t quite healthy and wasn’t getting looks, and he had plummeted to $5,500.

But we’re basically halfway through the season now. Outside of injury situations (DeAngelo Williams rose from $5,000 to $6,500 this week, Jeremy Langford from $4,700 to $6,400), guys aren’t going to swing much based on one good or bad game.

So when prices do see a wild swing (and accepting that we have a lower standard for “wild” at this point in the season), we need to look into why:

Tom Brady: My girlfriend wanted to bet on the Breeder’s Cup this weekend. She loves horses (cool) and loves gambling (cool as long as she’s good at it). Only problem is, she thought American Pharoah would win the race, and she wanted to bet on American Pharoah to win the race. That’s all well and good, except that American Pharoah’s odds were 6/5. When a favorite is such a favorite, it’s hard to even bet that favorite. Well, Tom Brady’s price has only gone up all season. It was in the low $8,000s early in the season, and $9,200 a week ago. Now it’s $9,500, which, off of a cursory look through my spreadsheet, is the second-highest individual price all season, only behind Aaron Rodgers’ $9,700 in Week 1. Brady’s been great. He hasn’t had a bad game all year. If that continues, he has a game-breaking ability, where you almost have to use Brady to win. That’s why his price keeps rising. At some point, he gets too expensive to even bother throwing money at.

Drew Brees and Eli Manning: Both quarterbacks are close to where they were in Week 7. Brees was $8,400 then, and is $8,500 now. Manning was $7,800 in both games. Of course, in between, both guys dropped big-time ($7,900 for Brees and $7,300 for Manning), and then played each other, scoring all the touchdowns. FanDuel saw that, said “Oh yeah, these guys are stupid good,” and bumped them right back up.

Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard: By numbers, Bernard was better than Hill in four of six games heading into Sunday, and was leading him by six for the season. Bernard had 77 rushes, Hill had 74. And then, coming out of their bye, the Bengals seemed to make a decision. Hill had 15 carries compared to Bernard’s one. Bernard had been $6,700 entering the week, compared to $6,300 for Hill. Now, after those performances, Bernard fell $500, and Hill rose the exact same. FanDuel believes in that usage breakdown.

Lamar Miller: Remember when the Dolphins beat the awful Titans and the awful Texans, and we all thought they were good for a minute? Miller’s price went from $6,400 to $6,700 to $7,400 over those weeks. Then last week, Miami played New England, and reality ate the Dolphins’ lunch. Miller’s price reflected that sadness, falling right back to $6,900, and re-signifying that maybe he isn’t actually a No. 1 running back.

Antonio Brown: I can sort of picture the guys who set the FanDuel prices looking like Tony Reali awarding points on Around the Horn, with a level to raise and lower the points, just waiting for Ben Roethlisberger’s return to push that number back up. Brown had bottomed out at $8,300, was $8,400 a week ago, but rose $300 to $8,700 now. Thing is, Brown wasn’t actually that good last week. He had 11 targets, but only 47 yards, so even if he had maintained that silly 50-yard streak through Roethlisberger’s absence, it would have ended there. It was only a touchdown salvaging Brown’s value. Those FanDuel Realis think Roethlisberger shakes off the rest of his rust this week.

Stevie Johnson: Here’s one that looks silly at a glance. With Keenan Allen done for the year, Johnson’s price should be skyrocketing, as he and Malcom Floyd are likely to get the targets Allen once got. Floyd’s price jumped, from $5,200 to $6,100. But Johnson’s fell from $5,900 to $5,400. Of course, the answer is that Floyd’s price leapt because of his big Week 8, while Johnson’s didn’t because FanDuel didn’t know, when setting salaries, that Allen was done. This salary reduction is a spot where you might be able to find sneaky Week 9 value.

Benjamin Watson: Other than a defense, the cheapest you can get any piece in FanDuel is $4,500. Watson hovered there or barely above through Week 5. And that made sense, as Watson totaled 7 fantasy points through the season’s first four weeks. Since, then, though, Watson has become the Saints’ new Jimmy Graham, with 13 fantasy points a week in his last four. His price has climbed accordingly, leaving the cheapest-possible option behind. It’s been a slow but steady climb, and after Week 8’s 20 fantasy points, he jumped another $300 to $5,700. Watson is now priced the same as Jordan Reed and Charles Clay.