NFL picks against the spread: 5 best bets for Week 14 include the Jaguars and Steelers

Occasionally, a 2-3 week can feel like a 5-0 week, and that’s kind of how I felt last Sunday after picking the Eagles over the Patriots in the Westgate SuperContest as a proud member of Team OddsShark. Of course it’s very stupid to feel that way, and that moral victory is the reason why people lose so much money on gambling in a nutshell. I’m willing to overlook my three very bad bets because of one good one and therefore, I am an idiot.

But seriously that Eagles pick was pretty sick though.

My overall strategy is to embrace the fact that I am not good at betting. So I run through all the games, choose the ones I’m most confident in, and then go back at the last second and change them after explaining my logic.

On to the picks:

Last week: 2-3 (booo)

Season: 53 percent (booo)

RAMS (Pick ‘em) over Lions

I’m going to count last week’s loss to the Packers as a win for Detroit. It’s only fair. I mean they held Aaron Rodgers in check, stuffed the run, and capitalized on turnovers. Most people that tuned in would probably agree with me. Jim Bob Cooter has an electric, innovative, almost gimmicky offense where he instructs Matt Stafford to maybe throw the ball to Calvin Johnson once in a while, and it turns out it gets results.

The Rams are depressing despite having the best defensive line and best young running back in football. If I had half the job security of Jeff Fisher I would post hardcore pornography in my articles and pick the Browns every week, and then expect a raise. They’ve been especially depressing as of late, and I immediately circled the Lions in this game. But I’m a Big Moron so I changed my pick at the last second to the Rams.

Steelers (+2.5) over BENGALS

The Bengals have been the sneaky-best team against the spread recently going 6-1 in their last seven. They have won some big games in big ways, even coming from behind once or twice in shootouts that the old Bengals would have found a way to lose. I love the combination of Giovanni Bernard and Jeremy Hill. They are polar opposites in terms of running style but together they might make up the best duo of rushers in the NFL, while keeping Cincinnati’s already strong defense fresh.

One of my key components to this strategy is to put a hell of a lot of stock in primetime games. Yeah, they count just the same, but morons like myself tend to pay way more attention to them than a 1 p.m. kickoff that only gets 1/8th of my attention on the RedZone channel. But what I saw last weekend told me more about the Colts than it did the Steelers. I can’t wait to bet on them to lose in the first round of the playoffs to the Bills. The Steelers are still a bit too inconsistent on the road for me to rely on them to cover such a small spread against the AFC frontrunners. But I’m a Big Moron, so I changed my pick at the last second to Steelers +2.5.

CHIEFS (-10) over Chargers

If I told you that the Chiefs were 27-17 in their last three seasons would you believe me? Because I sure wouldn’t. Idiots like me still overvalue the Chargers because they have Philip Rivers, and undervalue the Chiefs because they have Alex Smith and no Jamaal Charles.

It’s going to take a couple more years for the aura of Romeo Crennell to fade for me to feel comfortable spotting Kansas City 10 points against anyone, but that is because I am an idiot. Although I absolutely wanted to bet the Chargers, I’m a Big Moron, so I changed my pick at the last second to Chiefs -10.

JAGUARS (Pick ‘em) over Colts

If the Jaguars win this weekend and the Patriots beat the Texans, Jacksonville will be one game out of first place in the AFC South with a season-ender looming against Houston. That is unbelievable. Maybe the worst thing that could happen to Jacksonville is making the playoffs, which would not only drop their draft selection way back, but also create a false sense of accomplishment that could result in Gus Bradley keeping his job.

The Jaguars have some good young talent that could develop into solid pieces, so if they can make one or two big moves in the draft and with a good coach they could put themselves in good position in their division for the next 5-7 years. Still, they don’t get very much credit for being an average team, and the Colts are still a much bigger draw due to their limited post-season success and pre-season expectations. Dummies like myself like to hold out hope that the Colts we all expected will show up and beat the Jaguars by 30. But I’m a Big Moron so I changed my pick at the last second to the Jaguars.

RAVENS (+6.5) over Seahawks

I don’t know why we root so much for Matt Schaub to throw a pick-six, but we definitely do. There’s something satisfying about a sports stereotype that gets perfectly fulfilled that it makes us feel smart, and extremely validated, like we predicted it. Imagine England scoring an own goal on itself in the 90th minute in the World Cup quarterfinals on a handball that wasn’t called, or Kobe going 1-55. They’re very sad things, but pretty hilarious if they don’t happen to you.

I have to imagine that the Legion of Boom is disappointed that they won’t be facing Schaub, but getting Jimmy Claussen is a pretty nice consolation prize. Given the injuries to the Ravens, and the surging Seahawks, I had a very easy decision to make and I feel great about betting on the Seahawks.

But I’m a Big Moron so I changed my pick at the last second to Ravens +6.5

SB Nation presents: Why the Kansas City Chiefs are going to the playoffs